Major League Baseball

Halladay vs. Lincecum by the numbers

Published Oct. 14, 2010 4:17 a.m. ET

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At first it seems a tantalizing study in contrasts.

One is 6-foot-6, 230 pounds, with close-cropped red hair and a relentlessly composed demeanor. The other is 5-foot-11 (according to the most charitable of measurements), 170 pounds, childlike in appearance (and occasionally in manner) with a coif that calls to mind ... Linda Ronstadt? Even the nicknames — "Doc" for one, "The Freak" for his counterpart — suggest they occupy different ends of whatever continuum you can think of.

But when it comes to the most important thing — surpassing excellence on the mound — Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum have so much in common that all other distinctions seem meaningless. They're probably the best two pitchers in baseball, and they'll definitely oppose one another in Game 1 of the NLCS. And how lucky are we to bear witness to it?

Very lucky indeed. Whether you're partial to Halladay's unique blend of devastating stuff and "pitch to contact" efficiency or Lincecum's more conspicuous and character-driven flavor of dominance, there's much to appreciate about both hurlers. And the numbers they churn out are similarly impressive.

How impressive? Let's take a somewhat meandering walking tour of Halladay vs. Lincecum by the numbers ...

• After Lincecum's utter dominance in Game 1 of the NLDS (which was good for the highest Game Score in postseason history — yes, higher than Halladay's no-hitter or Don Larsen's perfect game) — it's easy to forget that the 2010 season was somewhat of a disappointment, at least by the lofty standards of a back-to-back Cy Young winner. Lincecum notched a third straight National League strikeout title, but his ERA was almost a full run over year-ago levels. Mostly, that was because of a spike in his home-run rate. He actually showed the strongest ground-ball tendencies of his career, but his home-run/fly-ball ratio increased quite a bit. Why is that? It could be random noise, or it could be that he went to his fastball a little less often and was a little less successful in getting first-pitch strikes. Whatever the case, Lincecum is still Lincecum for the most part.

• How does Roy Halladay give up the most hits in the league and still be the best pitcher in baseball? Easy. He threw 250.2 innings, walked just 30 batters all year, induced 25 double plays and allowed opponents to hit just .173 with runners in scoring position.

• Needless to say, both Halladay and Lincecum have top-shelf stuff. But what pitches have worked for them in 2010? Not surprisingly, Halladay's cutter grades as one of the most effective pitches in baseball. The same goes for Lincecum's changeup, which is the best such offering in the National League.

• Halladay is famous for his command. For the fourth time he led his league in strikeout-to-walk ratio, this year with a career-best mark of 7.30. In baseball terms, command means dominating without sacrificing control, and this has been Halladay's "house special" for the last decade or so. Here's another way to frame his excellence in the realm of command: 2010 marks the third straight season that Halladay has recorded more three-pitch strikeouts than he has total walks. Now that's command.

• As for the showdown in Game 1 (and, if we're especially fortunate, Game 5), Lincecum has fared quite well against current Philly hitters. As a group, they've batted .192 AVG/.244 OBP/.363 SLG against him in a total of 159 plate appearances. Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth are the only Phils who have managed to hit Lincecum well, albeit in a very limited sample of plate appearances. Specifically, Howard has three career homers off Lincecum in just 19 ABs. As for Halladay, the current Giants roster has a batting line of .269 AVG/.299 OBP/.314 SLG against him. Only Pat Burrell on the Giants has really held his own against Halladay.

• And what does the future hold for these two uber-aces? That's impossible to say of course, but thanks to Bill James and his statistical tool called the "Favorite Toy," we can take a look at a player through the prism of his performance trends and career to date to take an educated guess as to his final place in the record books. As for Halladay, the Favorite Toy tabs him for 255 career wins and gives him a 16 percent change of getting to 300. That puts him on a Hall of Fame course. Lincecum? Well, his historic lack of run support hurts him on the wins front. The Toy sees 189 total wins in his future and just a 5 percent chance of 300. But what of his strikeouts? At his current rate and age, Lincecum is projected to wind up with 2,971 strikeouts, which would put him 17th on the all-time list. The Toy also gives Lincecum a 17 percent chance of becoming just the fifth player ever to strike out 4,000 or more.

All this should leave you with one question: What could these two possibly do next? We'll find out soon enough.

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