Major League Baseball

Breaking down the divisional series

Published Oct. 4, 2010 3:05 p.m. ET

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Here's a quick rundown of the numbers we'll be using to break down each playoff series. At first glance, these stats might seem a bit intimidating, but they're really not. In fact — scary acronyms notwithstanding — they're easy to grasp, and they're far more illuminating that the numbers you're probably accustomed to.

OPS+: Each team’s OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) adjusted to reflect league and home ballpark conditions. Baseball Reference has OPS+ data for teams and individual players.

xFIP: A stat that attempts to separate pitching and defense by looking at those elements of the game most under the pitcher’s control (e.g., strikeout rate, walk rate, fly-ball rate). This way, we have a better idea of how good a rotation or bullpen is regardless of defensive support. In fact, xFIP is a better predictors of future ERA than any other pitching statistic out there. xFIP leaderboards are available at FanGraphs.

Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (PADE): Simply measures the percentage of balls in play that a team’s fielders convert into outs and makes adjustments based on how each ballpark affects the defense. PADE is a much better stat than fielding percentage because it accounts for a team’s range as well as the ability to make the routine play. PADE leaderboards can be found at Baseball Prospectus.

Now let’s use these tools to probe a bit more deeply into each Division Series matchup:

REDS vs. PHILLIES

In this Division Series, it’s the twice-defending NL champs against a team that hasn’t been in the postseason since 1996. That would be the mighty Phillies and the unlikely Reds.

So can David land a first-round haymaker on Goliath? We’ll soon see. But before we get around to deconstructing this series, let’s take a quick look at what’s in our statistical toolbox this time around:

OFFENSE

Yes, the Reds play in a hitter’s environment, but even after you adjust for that context they still have the NL’s best offense.

Joey Votto will be the best hitter in this series, Scott Rolen has undergone a renaissance at the plate, Jay Bruce has surged since the break, and elsewhere Cincy is average or better at every position save shortstop.

As well, the Reds boast one of the strongest benches in all of baseball, and that could be key against a fairly thin Philly relief corps.

On the Phillies’ side of things, they’re not as potent as the Reds, but the offense is still a plus. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz have all been productive, and Jayson Werth is enjoying the best season of his career.

On the downside, the Phillie lineup has been notably less effective against right-handed pitching this season, and against Cincy they’ll likely be facing all right-handed starters.

Even though the Philly lineup is finally somewhat healthy, this is an edge for the Reds.

ROTATION

On this point, the schedule heavily benefits the Phillies in the first round.

As holders of the NL’s best record, the Phillies were allowed to choose whether they wanted to play the NLDS schedule with two off days or the one with three off days. Wisely, they chose the latter.

As a consequence, they won’t need to use their fourth starter (Joe Blanton), and that means the Reds will be facing Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt or Cole Hamels in each and every game of this series. Suffice it to say, beating those three pitchers three times in a span of five games will be — difficult.

Halladay is Halladay — the Cy Young favorite, a poised workhorse who pounds the zone with fastballs and cutters. He’s perhaps the best pitcher in baseball today, and there’s every reason to believe he’ll be in vintage form for his postseason debut.

Oswalt, who’s likely be the number-two starter for this series, has a 1.65 ERA since being dealt to Philly, and Hamels has looked like his 2008 self in the second half.

No other team in baseball can match this front three.

As for Cincy, they’ll go with Edinson Volquez in Game 1 and then follow him up with Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto.

Volquez has understandably been inconsistent since his return from Tommy John surgery, but part of that inconsistency has been occasional brilliance. Because of those “lightning in a bottle” tendencies, Volquez has the best chance to go pitch-for-pitch with a stud like Halladay.

As mentioned, the Cincy rotation for the NLDS is all right-handed. In Game 2, however, that might not be as big of an advantage as you might think, as Arroyo typically has all kinds of trouble with the opposite side.

And speaking of the opposite side, the Phils can stack the lineup with plenty of lefties and switch-hitters.

Overall, the Reds have a nice trio, but it simply can’t compare with Philly’s three-headed colossus.

BULLPEN

The Reds have some concerns at closer: Francisco Cordero has issued 35 unintentional walks in 72.2 innings this season, and his ERA of 3.84 is decidedly unspectacular by closer standards.

In terms of middle relief, they’re much better off. Aroldis Chapman and Arthur Rhodes have both been highly effective from the left side, and right-hander Nick Masset has also been useful. Depth from the right side, however, remains a concern.

As for the Phils, Brad Lidge has given up only one run since returning from a hyperextended elbow in mid-September, so he appears to be healthy and locked in, which means the slider is crackling.

And what of the “Bridge to Lidge”? It’s a mixed bag. Primary set-up man Ryan Madson has been outstanding this season, particularly in the second half. After him, though, things are much less certain.

Jose Contreras has been wildly inconsistent since June, and speaking of inconsistent, there’s J.C. Romero, who might wind up as the only lefty on the Phillies’ NLDS roster. Even if he’s not, Philly may have trouble taming lefty bats like Votto and Bruce in the late innings.

In part, that’s why it’s important for Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels to pitch deep into ballgames. Lucky for the reigning NL champs, they probably will.

Overall, consider this a modest edge for the Reds.

DEFENSE

The numbers above suggest that the Phils and Reds are both top-tier fielding teams. Most other metrics agree that the Reds grade out well, but there’s less of a consensus on Philadelphia.

One concern for Philly is the health of the left side of the infield.

Third baseman Placido Polanco and shortstop Jimmy Rollins are both excellent fielders, but both are hobbled at the moment. Polanco recently received a cortisone shot in his ailing (non-throwing) elbow, and Rollins’s hamstring injury might not be fully healed until pitchers and catchers report.

While utility infielder Wilson is good with the glove at both short and third, he’s not as skilled as Polanco or Rollins. Both Polanco and Rollins are slated to play, but, given their current states, both are also injury risks.

ALSO WORTH NOTING

Head to head: Phillies have five of seven games against the Reds this season and out-scored them 30-27 in those contests.

Second-half win percentage: Phillies, .667; Reds, .583

September win percentage: Phillies, .750; Reds, .464

Win percentage vs. winning teams: Phillies, .588; Reds, .340

PREDICTION

The strength of the Phillies’ rotation in tandem with the accommodating schedule will be too much for Cincinnati to overcome. Phillies in four.

BRAVES vs. GIANTS

These two old pre-wild card NL West rivals gave us the last great old-school pennant race, and now they’ll meet in the postseason for the first time since 2002.

So will Bobby Cox go out in style or defeat? Step one is getting past the NL West champs. The numbers ...

OFFENSE

For too long, the Giants under GM Brian Sabean have struggled to put an adequate offense on the field. This season, however, the Giants grade out as roughly average, and that’s one reason they find themselves in the postseason for the first time since 2003. The surprising thing is that they’ve managed this improvement despite a disappointing season from Pablo Sandoval, usually the best hitter on the team. Rookie Buster Posey is already one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell have been pleasant surprises in terms of power, and Freddy Sanchez and Juan Uribe have turned in solid seasons by positional standards. As well, Andres Torres has served as a drastic upgrade in center.

With all that said, the Braves have the better run-scoring attack. Brian McCann, Jason Heyward, Martin Prado -- they constitute the productive core of the lineup. Additionally, Eric Hinske, Derrek Lee, Omar Infante and David Ross have filled in nicely at various positions. Atlanta also boasts a much deeper bench than the Giants.

ROTATION

The Giants and Braves have just two scheduled days off in this series, which means each team must use a fourth starter or use their Game 1 starter on short rest in Game 4 (should the series last that long, of course).

The Giants’ front three are set -- Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez this season have combined for a 3.22 ERA, which is positively Phillies-esque in its excellence. But does the fourth spot go to Barry Zito, who can’t pitch on the road and who has had two quality months all season, or does it go to the unproven Madison Bumgarner, who, to simplify matters, is much better than Zito? The series could hinge on that decision. (Correct answer: Bumgarner!)

For Atlanta, there’s also some uncertainty. Cy Young darkhorse Tim Hudson was forced to start the regular-season finale on Sunday, so he won’t be available on full rest until Game 2. That probably means Derek Lowe will start Game 1. Pencil in Tommy Hanson for Game 3, and the rest depends upon Jair Jurrjens and the status of his healing knee.

Give this one to the Giants.

BULLPEN

Both closers have been exceptional this season. So there’s that.

In the middle innings, the Giants should be fine from the right side -- Sergio Romo hasn’t given up a run since August, and Santiago Casilla has been similarly dominant. Ditto for Dan Runzler and Ramon Ramirez and ... let’s just say the San Fran bullpen has been exceptional of late.

Of course, the Braves have depth and (arguably) are better able to attack both sides. Billy Wagner, one of the greatest closers of the modern era, is supported by an outstanding middle-relief corps that includes Jonny Venters (1.95 ERA), Takashi Saito (2.83 ERA), Peter Moylan (2.97 ERA), and, well, it’s a rather long list. Suffice it to say, Bobby Cox has options. More than Bruce Bochy does.

DEFENSE

Good defense tends to be a common thread among winning teams, and this series is no exception. On the other hand, other measures say that the Braves aren’t especially adept at turning batted balls into outs. So, by force of consensus, consider this one an advantage for the Giants.

ALSO WORTH NOTING:

Head to Head: The Braves won four of seven games against the Giants this season and outscored them 28-21 over that span.

Second-Half Win%: Giants, .608; Braves, .527

September Win%: Giants, .692; Braves, .481

Win% vs. Winning Teams: Giants, .446; Braves, .468

Braves’ Road Win%: .432

PREDICTION

Is there a tougher series to call than this one? Probably not. Make any prediction, and it’s defensible. In this space, though, we’ll favor the Atlanta offense and bullpen over the Giants’ advantages. Braves in five.
 

RANGERS vs. RAYS

Given the strength of the AL in general and the AL East in particular, it’s obvious that the Rays are the best team in baseball.

The consistency of their excellence is striking: in 2010, the Rays posted a winning record against the AL East, the AL Central and the AL West. They had a winning record in one-run games and in extra-innings; against right-handers and left-handers; against winning teams and losing teams; at home and on the road. In other words, it’s hard to beat the Rays under any conditions.

And so it’s the Rangers who are tasked with taking on the best team in baseball. Needless to say, Ron Washington’s club is the underdog going in.

Now here’s how these ALDS combatants match up...

OFFENSE

The Tampa offense is actually a notch or two better than it was in their pennant-winning campaign of 2008.

Evan Longoria is an MVP candidate in part because of his power, Carl Crawford has one of the most well rounded offensive games of any player in baseball, B.J. Upton has been living up to his potential of late, and John Jaso and Matt Joyce have been quietly productive. As well, no team in the AL has hit into fewer double plays.

The Rays also have one of the most fly ball-inclined offenses around, and that tendency could help them in Games 3 and 4 at Arlington, which is a great park for home runs.

On the Rangers’ side of the ledger, it’s of course good news that former Tampa farmhand Josh Hamilton is back in the lineup after battling a serious rib injury.

Hamilton punctuated his comeback with a home run on the final day of the regular season (and in the process, he notched his 100th RBI and cinched the batting title). Elsewhere, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler and Vlad Guerrero have all turned in useful seasons.

On the downside, the Rangers haven’t received much production from catcher, first base, center field and shortstop.

Overall, it should be noted that the Rays outscored the Rangers this season despite playing in a home park that’s far less accommodating toward the offense.

The Tampa offense is simply superior.

ROTATION

The Rangers will start two lefties in this series — Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson. Both are excellent pitchers, but their handedness won’t confer any advantage in this series. That’s because the Rays this season have an OPS of .734 against lefties and .740 against right-handers.

In other words, Tampa hits both sides almost equally as well.

Speaking of Lee, he’s rebounded from a rough August and is in vintage form headed into the postseason. Even so, manager Ron Washington has backed off earlier plans to go with a three-man rotation and start Lee on three-days’ rest in Game 4.

Instead, Tommy Hunter will be the Game 4 starter for Texas. Considering that Lee has never before started on short rest, Washington’s decision makes sense.

The good news for Texas is that all four starters have sub-4.00 ERAs on the season.

As for Tampa, they’ll trot out a genuine ace — David Price — to oppose Lee in Game 1. After that, things are sketchy.

Matt Garza will likely start Game 2, but what then? Do you really give a start in Arlington to James Shields, he of the 5.18 ERA on the season, 7.59 ERA over his last six starts and 34 home runs allowed?

Wade Davis likely pitched his way into the ALDS rotation with a strong outing in Sunday’s clincher.

So Jeff Niemann for the fourth spot? Or do you summon Jeremy Hellickson from the bullpen? Or do you close your eyes, plug your ears and give Shields the ball?

As great as the Rays have been this season, the back of the rotation is an unknown quantity at the moment. Perhaps their saving grace will be that they can start Price for a second time on full rest should the series go the full five games.

BULLPEN

Texas boasts a shutdown closer in Neftali Feliz, and Darrens O’Day and Oliver make for a nice lefty-righty setup combo.

Depth, however, may be a concern. Frank Franciso is hurt, and Washington may not have enough confidence in Alexi Ogando (excellent though he has been) to give him high-leverage playoff innings.

Tampa is in a similar situation.

Closer Rafael Soriano has been outstanding this season, and the same goes for right-handers Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit.

If Hellickson winds up working out of the pen (a likelihood, presumably), then that’s a lot of depth from the right side. Give this category to Tampa.

DEFENSE

As the PADE numbers above suggest, both the Rays and Rangers are strong with the glove.

Specifically, the Rangers this season boast one of the best outfield defenses around. Seemingly, that’s significant because, as mentioned, the Rays tend to his a lot of fly balls.

However, the Rays are fifth in the AL when it comes to home runs per fly ball hit, so that stellar Texas outfield defense might make more of a difference in the games in Tropicana Field, where homers are harder to come by.

The Tampa defense, meanwhile, is more balanced than Texas’ and thus less dependent upon the tendencies of the opposition. Push.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ...

Head to Head: The Rays have won four out of six against the Rangers this season, and in those games they out-scored Texas 40-31.

Second-Half Win%: Rays, .568; Rangers, .541

September Win%: Rays, .500; Rangers, .536

Win% vs. Winning Teams: Rays, .568; Rangers, .434

Rays’ Home Win%: .605

Rangers’ Road Win%: .481

PREDICTION

The Rangers are better positioned when it comes to the rotation, but the Rays have the better offense and bullpen.

More generally, the Rays are a better team. The Rays won 96 games while playing 81 games against winning teams. The Rangers, meanwhile, won 90 games while playing 53 games against winning teams.

While anything can happen in a short series, there’s no reason to believe the Rangers are somehow constructed to overcome the fact that Tampa is superior. Rays in five.

YANKEES vs. TWINS

It’s the defending champs (Yankees!) against what may be the best organization in all of baseball (Twins!). First-round encounters don’t get much more compelling than this one.

OFFENSE

The Yanks, despite advancing age throughout the lineup, are an excellent offensive team. In fact, when Jorge Posada is behind the plate, they grade out above average at eight of nine positions. Once more for emphasis: According to OPS+ and other metrics of your choosing, the Yankees are better than the field at eight of nine positions. The “break” in the lineup? Future Hall-of-Famer Derek Jeter. That’s uncommon excellence, and that’s why the Yankee lineup is especially hard to attack. They hit right-handers and left-handers, and -- in defiance of the hitter-friendly nature of Yankee Stadium -- they rank third in the AL in runs scored on the road. Simply put, the Yankees, top to bottom, can hit. A lot.

As for the Twins, they have a solid attack that’s built upon making consistent contact. In fact, this season just the White Sox and Royals have struck out fewer times than the Twins. Justin Morneau (concussion) won’t be available for the ALDS, but the Twins have fared quite well in his absence. Reigning AL MVP Joe Mauer has enjoyed a legendary second half, Delmon Young is finally tapping into his potential, and Jim Thome has been simply tremendous in limited action.

With all that said, this one’s a clear advantage for the Yankees.

ROTATION

Franciso Liriano and Carl Pavano have been consistent forces in the Minnesota rotation, and they’ll almost certainly start the first two games of this series. As for the back end, it’s probably going to be Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn. Blackburn has some rather ugly numbers on the season, but he’s been trending upward of late and that’s why he’s earned the fourth spot. Duensing, meanwhile, has logged a 3.05 ERA in 13 starts this season. Of course, there’s also the possibility that manager Ron Gardenhire opts to go to Liriano on short rest in Game 4.

The Yankees ... CC Sabathia is the envy of most staffs, and he’ll obviously start Game 1 and, if necessary, Game 5 for the Yankees. There ends the good news. Andy Pettitte has struggled badly since his return from injury; A.J. Burnett has been a flaming, exploding disappointment; and Philip Hughes has been showing clear signs of fatigue for some time. Or ... Javier Vazquez? Sergio Mitre? Sabathia on short rest?

That’s to say, the Yankee rotation behind CC is an utter mess. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

BULLPEN

No Joe Nathan? No problem for the resourceful Twins. Five different Minnesota pitchers have recorded saves this season, and Jon Rauch and Matt Capps have both ably served as the regular closer at various points. Speaking of Rauch, he’s saying all the right things about his injured knee, and presumably he’ll be on the ALDS roster. Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain add depth from the right side, and lefty Brian Fuentes has yet to give up a run as a Twin. In other words, the Minnesota pen is in much better shape at the moment than that xFIP number would lead you to believe.

For the Yankees, Mariano, on balance, has been outstanding. However, those late September struggles raise some concerns. With that said, Mariano is Mariano, and Kerry Wood -- since joining the Yankees and altering his arm angle -- has excelled. Depth, though, remains a concern, and that’s why the Twins get the nod.

DEFENSE

Considering the age of some Yankee defenders, it’s perhaps hard to believe that they rate well with the collective glove. Yet they do. Somewhat predictably, though, the Yankees’ infield defense is quite lacking, at least according to Ultimate Zone Rating. And unfortunately for the Yankees, no AL team hits a higher percentage of ground balls than the Twins. Normally, it’s not a good thing for an offense to hit the ball on the ground, but against the Yankees it’s a desirable quality. Overall, the Yanks have a better team defense, but the Twins are equipped to nullify that advantage. Push.

ALSO WORTH NOTING:

Head to Head: The Yankees this season have won four of six meetings, and in those six games they’ve outscored the Twins 24-21.

Second-Half Win%: Yankees, .527; Twins, .649

September Win%: Yankees, .444; Twins, .630

Win% vs. Winning Teams: Yankees, .537; Twins, .543

Twins’ Home Win%: .654

PREDICTION

The Yankee rotation is in a state of disarray, and that’s what will undo the defending champs in this series. The Yanks have the better offense, but that’s the only facet of the game at which they’re better than Minnesota. Twins in five.

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