2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: St. John's, Wisconsin Slide Following Losses

Nearly five decades into a Hall of Fame career, there aren’t many nights that qualify as unfamiliar territory for Rick Pitino. His résumé includes seven Final Fours and two national titles. Now at St. John's, he’s far more accustomed to making history than enduring it.

But a 72-40 loss to UConn on Wednesday night was the wrong kind of milestone for Pitino.

The team's 32-point defeat was the second-largest loss Pitino has suffered as the head coach of an AP-ranked team and the most lopsided setback of his three seasons at St. John’s. With the loss, the Red Storm slipped to the third No. 5 seed in FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy’s latest NCAA Tournament projections.

St. John's head coach Rick Pitino reacts against the Marquette Golden Eagles. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

[COLLEGE HOOPS: Takeaways From UConn's Win Over St. John's]

The Red Storm weren’t alone. Wisconsin fell from the 7-line to the 8-line after a road loss to Oregon, while Utah State also dropped to the 8-line following a loss to San Diego State.

Here is a complete look at DeCourcy's NCAA Tournament seed list:

No. 1 seeds

1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Connecticut

No. 2 seeds

5. Iowa State
6. Illinois
7. Purdue
8. Houston

No. 3 seeds

9. Kansas
10. Florida
11. Gonzaga
12. Nebraska

No. 4 seeds

13. Virginia
14. Michigan State
15. Alabama
16. Texas Tech

No. 5 seeds

17. Arkansas
18. Vanderbilt
19. St. John's
20. North Carolina

No. 6 seeds

21. Tennessee
22. Louisville
23. BYU
24. Villanova

No. 7 seeds

25. UCF
26. Kentucky
27. Saint Mary's
28. Saint Louis

No. 8 seeds

29. Utah State
30. Wisconsin
31. Miami Hurricanes
32. Miami RedHawks

No. 9 seeds

33. NC State
34. Iowa
35. Georgia
36. SMU

No. 10 seeds

37. UCLA
38. Missouri
39. Clemson
40. Texas A&M

No. 11 seeds

41. Texas
42. California
43. Indiana v. 44. TCU
45. Santa Clara v. 46. VCU

No. 12 seeds

47. Belmont
48. Yale
49. South Florida
50. Liberty

No. 13 seeds

51. Stephen F. Austin
52. UNC Wilmingon
53. High Point
54. Hawaii

No. 14 seeds

55. Utah Valley
56. Austin Peay
57. North Dakota State
58. Navy

No. 15 seeds

59. Portland State
60. East Tennessee State
61. Wright State
62. Merrimack

No. 16 seeds

63. Appalachian State
64. UMBC
65. LIU
66. Bethune-Cookman
67. Southeast Missouri State
68. Morgan State

And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble.

According to DeCourcy's seed list, Auburn, San Diego State, Virginia Tech and USC are the first four teams out of the tournament, while Ohio State, New Mexico, Seton Hall and Oklahoma State are the next four out.

Selection Sunday is less than one month away, and this list will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest seed list offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March arrives.