Phillies vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 29

Updated Sep. 29, 2023 11:00 a.m. ET

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Nicholas Castellanos and the Philadelphia Phillies take the field on Friday at Citi Field against Tylor Megill, who is starting for the New York Mets. First pitch will be at 7:10 PM ET. The favored Phillies have -124 moneyline odds against the underdog Mets, who are listed at +105. Philadelphia is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The matchup's total is set at 8.5 runs.

The Philadelphia Phillies will give the start to Taijuan Walker (15-5, 4.40 ERA), who is looking for win No. 16 on the season, and the Mets will counter with Megill (8-8, 4.92 ERA).

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Mets game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Phillies vs. Mets Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, September 29, 2023 at 7:10 PM ET
• Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
• How to Watch on TV: SNY

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mets 6, Phillies 5
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 50%, Mets 50%

Phillies vs. Mets Betting Insights

• The Phillies have been favorites in 110 games this season and won 66 (60%) of those contests.
• Philadelphia is 56-30 this season when entering a game favored by -124 or more on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Phillies, based on the moneyline, is 55.4%.
• The Mets have been underdogs in 68 games this season and have come away with the win 22 times (32.4%) in those contests.
• New York has a mark of 10-37 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +105 or worse on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 48.8% chance of pulling out a win.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies have a 6-1 record across the seven games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total five times.
• The Phillies' record against the spread is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Trea Turner is batting .266 with 35 doubles, five triples, 26 home runs and 45 walks.
• Including all MLB hitters, Turner ranks 55th in batting average, 94th in on-base percentage, and 55th in slugging.
• Turner brings a hitting streak of three games into this game. During his last five outings he is batting .250 with three doubles, a walk and an RBI.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit 46 home runs to pace his team.
• Schwarber is second in home runs and 14th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Alec Bohm is hitting .275 with 31 doubles, 19 home runs and 42 walks.
• Bryce Harper is batting .295 to lead his team.

Phillies Team Props

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Mets matchup on Fox Sports.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets have played as underdogs in eight of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents are 5-4-1 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Mets have seven wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Francisco Lindor is hitting .254 with 33 doubles, two triples, 30 home runs and 64 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .334.
• In all of MLB, Lindor ranks 24th in homers and 22nd in RBI.
• Pete Alonso has hit 46 home runs with 117 runs batted in, leading the team in both categories.
• Alonso ranks second in homers and second in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
• Brandon Nimmo paces the Mets' lineup with a .273 batting average.
• Francisco Alvarez is hitting .206 with 12 doubles, 23 home runs and 33 walks.

Mets Team Props

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MLB - Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets - 09/29/2023