Phillies vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 22

Updated Jul. 22, 2023 7:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Cleveland Guardians and Josh Naylor hit the field at Progressive Field against Nicholas Castellanos and the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday. The favored Phillies have -125 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Guardians, who are listed at +105. Philadelphia is favored on the run line (-1.5 with +135 odds). The over/under for the contest has been set at 8 runs.

The Phillies will give the ball to Zack Wheeler (7-4) against the Guardians and Tanner Bibee (5-2).

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Guardians game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Phillies vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 7:10 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
How to Watch on TV: BSGL

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Phillies	-125	+105	8	-114	-106	-1.5	+135	-159

Phillies vs. Guardians Prediction

Score Prediction: Guardians 5, Phillies 4
Total Prediction: Under 8 runs
Win Probabilities: Phillies 51%, Guardians 49%

Phillies vs. Guardians Betting Insights

This season, the Phillies have won 36 out of the 61 games, or 59%, in which they've been favored.
Philadelphia has entered 43 games this season favored by -125 or more and is 28-15 in those contests.
Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 55.6% chance to win.
The Guardians have been chosen as underdogs in 44 games this year and have walked away with the win 19 times (43.2%) in those games.
Cleveland has a mark of 13-19 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +105 or worse on the moneyline.
The Guardians have an implied victory probability of 48.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

The Phillies were favored on the moneyline in six of their last 10 games, and they finished 3-3 in those matchups.
Over their last 10 outings, the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over seven times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
The Phillies have a 2-8-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	4-6
Runs Per Game	4.3
HR	12
ERA	4.60
K/9	7.3

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Phillies Player Insights

Bryson Stott paces the Phillies with a .307 batting average.
Of all hitters in the majors, Stott ranks 145th in homers and 131st in RBI.
Stott has collected a hit in six straight games. In his last 10 games he is hitting .382 with two doubles, two home runs, two walks and four RBI.
Castellanos is batting .286 with 26 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs and 24 walks.
Castellanos is 65th in homers and 25th in RBI in the majors.
Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 26 home runs and 60 runs batted in.
Alec Bohm is batting .281 with 16 doubles, nine home runs and 23 walks.

Phillies Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Alec Bohm	0.5 (-233)	1.5 (+140)	0.5 (+750)	0.5 (+165)
J.T. Realmuto	0.5 (-238)	1.5 (+115)	0.5 (+450)	0.5 (+150)
Bryce Harper	1.5 (+190)	1.5 (+100)	0.5 (+425)	0.5 (+150)
Trea Turner	1.5 (+200)	1.5 (+100)	0.5 (+500)	0.5 (+175)
Bryson Stott	0.5 (-263)	1.5 (+130)	0.5 (+850)	0.5 (+180)

Learn more about this Phillies vs. Guardians matchup on Fox Sports.

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

The Guardians have played as underdogs in five of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Guardians and their opponents have combined to hit the over seven times.
The Guardians have six wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Guardians Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	5.5
HR	12
ERA	4.50
K/9	9.3

Guardians Player Insights

Jose Ramirez has 25 doubles, four triples, 14 home runs and 44 walks while hitting .292.
Among all hitters in the big leagues, Ramirez's home run total ranks 65th and his RBI tally is 38th.
Ramirez has collected a hit in four straight games. During his last five outings he is batting .409 with two doubles, two walks and an RBI.
Naylor's 15 home runs, 76 runs batted in and .315 batting average are all tops in the lineup.
Naylor is 49th in home runs and third in RBI among all batters in the majors.
Steven Kwan has 25 doubles, two triples, three home runs and 42 walks while batting .271.
Andres Gimenez has 14 doubles, four triples, eight home runs and 20 walks while batting .243.

Guardians Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Steven Kwan	1.5 (+195)	1.5 (+125)	0.5 (+1200)	0.5 (+265)
José Ramírez	0.5 (-256)	1.5 (+120)	0.5 (+500)	0.5 (+160)
Josh Bell	0.5 (-204)	1.5 (+140)	0.5 (+500)	0.5 (+175)
Amed Rosario	0.5 (-263)	1.5 (+140)	0.5 (+900)	0.5 (+215)
Josh Naylor	0.5 (-278)	1.5 (+110)	0.5 (+475)	0.5 (+135)

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