2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Studying the Sophomores
Ryan Fowler likes to give me grief about not liking or trusting young players. He thinks I'm a middle-aged, cranky curmudgeon who doesn't want to give new guys a chance. That's sometimes true, much as I'd like to consider myself unbiased.
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In February, I saw a tweet from Yahoo! Fantasy analyst Scott Pianowski calling 2016 the "Year of the Buzzy Sophomore" based on some high ADPs for Kyle Schwarber, Miguel Sano and Raisel Iglesias. I had been thinking the same thing, and wondered if it was an instinctive bias against relatively unproven players.
If you look at the NFBC ADP, there are plenty of second-year players being drafted in spots that seem at least a bit aggressive at first glance. Let's take a look at the sophs currently in the NFBC's top 150 to see if the FOXSports.com consensus rankings - and my personal rankings - agree on the players' draft worthiness.
ROCK THE VOTE: TOP 2016 MLB SOPHOMORE BRACKET
Carlos Correa, SS, Astros
We're close to the conventional wisdom on Correa, with Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Manny Machado and Andrew McCutchen ahead of him on our board but not in the ADP. Arguing would be nitpicking between them, though we do seem to be higher than most on McCutchen.
Kris Bryant, 3B, Cubs
The FOXSports.com consensus has Bryant ahead of Machado, while the NFBC and I disagree. Bryant has prodigious power and flashed some nice speed (13 SB) in 2015, but do you really want to use a first-round pick on a guy who struck out in 30.6 percent of his at bats and posted a sky-high .378 BABIP? No, thanks.
Kyle Schwarber, C/OF, Cubs
All parties agree that Schwarber's ceiling is worth drafting ahead of all catchers other than Buster Posey. However, the NFBC drafters have been much more bullish on Schwarber - he hasn't been drafted lower than 56th in ANY drafts so far.
Schwarber has the ability to hit 30-35 bombs, but let's assume he meets the Steamer projection of .261 with 25 homers. If that's the case, he won't be all that different from Brian McCann, who's going almost 80 picks later. Betting on Schwarber's potential in the third round of redraft leagues is too expensive.
Noah Syndergaard, SP, Mets
Our overall ranks here at FOXSports.com reflect a basic philosophy of drafting hitters before pitchers in the early rounds. However, our SP rankings have Syndergaard in the same range as the NFBC drafters, and it won't be the least bit surprising if he's a top-10 starter by the end of the season.
On a related note, is it rude to call out your colleagues by mentioning the insanity of having Sonny Gray ranked ahead of Thor? What the ... heck?
Miguel Sano, 3B/DH, Twins
Not too different, right? Sano's .960 OPS in his first 335 MLB plate appearances is very impressive, and his power is undeniable. However, his sky-high whiff rate (35.5 percent) and .396 BABIP suggest a decline in batting average â Steamer pegs Sano at .249, with ZiPS at .256. I'd rather have Matt Carpenter, Kyle Seager or Adrian Beltre as long as I took enough power in the first handful of rounds, but don't hate Sano where he's being picked.
Note: Sano played nine games at third base last season. He's being ranked at third base by many outlets despite being DH-only in some formats. Make sure to check your league settings before drafting Sano.
Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians
The small difference here includes the NFBC drafters picking rookie-eligible Corey Seager ahead of Lindor and Xander Bogaerts. Lindor probably won't hit quite as well as he did last season, but the projections of a dozen homers with 20-ish steals sound about right.
Seager is going to be a really good player, but unlikely to provide value this season at his very optimistic ADP. You're reaching, folks.
Maikel Franco, 3B, Phillies
Our consensus ranking for Franco is skewed a bit by my low standing, and I'm in the wrong here. Every projection seems to have Franco at about .270 with 20-25 home runs, and those numbers can start on any fantasy team.
Lance McCullers, SP, Astros
As with Syndergaard, we have McCullers ranked similarly to the NFBC drafters within his position, but a few rounds lower overall. Among pitchers with more than 125 innings pitched last season, McCullers ranked 19th in strikeout percentage (24.8), ahead of guys like Cole Hamels and Gerrit Cole. Even if he's on an innings limit, McCullers looks like a solid pick on the SP3/4 cusp.
Addison Russell, 2B/SS, Cubs
We've got second basemen Kolten Wong, Dustin Pedroia and DJ LeMahieu ahead of Russell, who should show some improvement with the bat at age 22. But though Russell's power might improve, he hasn't shown speed since A ball in 2013. Growth doesn't necessarily mean immediate fantasy stardom, and we'll probably pass on Russell at his current ADP.
Matt Duffy, 3B, Giants
The NFBC drafters would apparently rather take Duffy's modest speed and solid BA over the power of Mike Moustakas and the injury issues of David Wright. We've also got Anthony Rendon in our 3B rankings, which knocks Duffy down a spot at the position. We won't argue too much with the ADP, but should note that we also have Jung-Ho Kang ranked ahead of Duffy.
Carlos Rodon, SP, White Sox
Someone on the FOXSports.com team hates Rodon, while the NFBC drafters really like him. In terms of potential, the sky is the limit, and it was encouraging that Rodon's control issues improved to acceptable levels in August and September.
However, note Rodon's ERA projections of 3.81 for ZiPS and 4.16 for Steamer. There could still be more control-related bumps in the road, and picking him ahead of guys like Jeff Samardzija and Jose Quintana is using your heart instead of your head.
Billy Burns, OF, A's
Burns' attractiveness in the middle rounds will depend on how you've built the rest of your roster. The NFBC drafters seem to think Burns will steal more than last season's 26 bases â he did swipe 57 between the minors and majors in 2014, and 74 as a minor leaguer in 2013.
The big problem is Oakland's crowded outfield, which includes Chris Coghlan and Coco Crisp as threats to Burns' playing time. He also doesn't hit much, and isn't a good option as an OF4.
Raisel Iglesias, SP, Reds
When is a sleeper not a sleeper? When he's on EVERYONE'S sleeper list. I'm more bullish on Iglesias than my FOXSports.com colleagues, and more excited about his 2016 outlook relatibve to the other starters than the NFBC drafters are. My FOXSports.com colleagues appear to be out at the current price.
Yeah, I know - Iglesias has pitched just 95 1/3 big-league innings, and stamina could be an issue for a guy who probably weighs 165 pounds soaking wet. But his K rate (26.3) was terrific last season, as he displayed three pretty good pitches (fastball, slider, changeup). I'm in on Iglesias, and this FanGraphs article offers some good reasons for optimism.
ROCK THE VOTE: TOP 2016 MLB SOPHOMORE BRACKET
