National Football League

Trevor Lawrence makes No. 1 pick in NFL Draft the most valuable ever

Updated Jul. 20, 2021 8:45 p.m. ET

Rob Rang

By Rob Rang
FOX Sports NFL Draft Analyst

While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ fan base has every right to be the happiest in the NFL, their counterparts a few hours north in Jacksonville should be just as excited about the future of their club.

That’s because the Jaguars possess what might just be the most valuable NFL draft pick in league history.

It isn’t just that Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is considered by many to be among the runaway No. 1 overall selections in modern league history, along the lines of John Elway, Michael Vick and Andrew Luck. Yes, Lawrence’s talent is elite.

It’s also the unexpected shriveling of the NFL’s salary cap this year due to COVID-19 losses that really makes this year’s top pick a pearl.

Franchises have always held a huge advantage in roster building when they’re lucky enough to field star quarterbacks on their (relatively) cheap rookie contracts.

That gap has widened to a crater in 2021, with five teams (Green Bay, Las Vegas, Seattle, Minnesota and Tennessee) on pace to dedicate more than 16% of their salary caps to quarterbacks, according to Spotrac.com.

Contrast that with the fractional numbers dedicated to young stars Patrick Mahomes (3.94%), Josh Allen (3.67) and Lamar Jackson (1.65%) by their respective clubs, quite literally allowing the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens tens of millions of dollars to boost other positions — at least for another year or two.

And don’t lose sight of each NFL team’s bottom line — general managers certainly are not.

While fans and the media tend to focus on the salaries of the players, the NFL generates the bulk of its pay from viewership, whether through television or internet hosting contracts. Those are collectively bargained and dispersed among the league’s 32 teams. The jersey sales of a hotshot rookie quarterback, on the other hand, mostly go to the lucky franchise for whom he is starring, with numbers likely to be even higher this fall, when stadiums across the league are (hopefully) back at full capacity.

As such, given the financial flexibility his rookie contract would provide as well as a boom in merchandise sales, if Lawrence is indeed adored by the NFL’s top scouts as much as we think, there are only a handful of players in the entire league as valuable to a franchise, given today’s climate.

For example, general managers Nick Caserio or John Schneider would get skewered with knee-jerk criticism if either traded superstar quarterbacks Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson for a single draft pick, but the fact is they recognize the roster reset the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft could provide their clubs, whether by selecting the quarterback or trading the pick.

If going down that rabbit hole of quarterback trading possibilities, one can be sure that most stars at any other position would be dangled as trade bait if the Jaguars were to auction off their unique opportunity. Mahomes might literally be the only slam dunk asset the Jags would trade the pick for straight-up, and I think they’d have to strongly consider other promising young QBs such as Allen, Jackson, Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert.

This is all part of why we don’t see the Jaguars trading the selection.

Lawrence is an exceptional talent and one well-suited to the offense new Jacksonville coach Urban Meyer used so effectively during his brilliant tour in college football. While it obviously came at the college level rather than in the NFL, it is worth reflecting on just how good Meyer’s teams were at Bowling Green (17-6 in two seasons), Utah (22-2 in two seasons), Florida (65-15 in six seasons) and Ohio State (83-9 in seven seasons), typically because of what they did on the offensive side of the ball. Meyer is the only coach other than Pop Warner and Nick Saban to win national titles for two programs (Florida and Ohio State).

Meyers’ scheme calls for a dual threat at quarterback, and Lawrence — a 6-foot-6, 220-pound gazelle with pinpoint accuracy — excels in such a role.

Meyer isn’t so egotistical to think his scheme will transition seamlessly to the NFL, so he brought in help. His offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell, and passing game coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer, were the past two play-callers in Seattle. Bevell served as offensive coordinator during Seattle’s lone title run, helping Russell Wilson win a Super Bowl in his second NFL season. With Schottenheimer calling the plays this past year, Wilson set Seattle’s single-season record for passing touchdowns with 40 while completing a career-high 68.8% of his passes.

It isn’t just the coaching staff's quality that should provide Lawrence a relatively soft landing in Jacksonville. For a club that finished last season with a single win, the Jaguars possess a lot of intriguing, young talent on offense.

Running back James Robinson proved to be one of the league’s most pleasant rookie surprises a year ago, and the wide receiver trio of D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault and free-agent addition Marvin Jones is one of the most talented and versatile in the AFC.

The Jaguars also slapped the franchise tag on talented 25-year-old left tackle Cam Robinson to protect whomever the quarterback is. They currently have Gardner Minshew, Jake Luton and the newly-signed C.J. Beathard on the roster.

This brings us back to Lawrence, the prototype for the modern-era quarterback, boasting rare size, a highly accurate and strong right arm, impressive mobility and a track record of success against elite competition.

When analyzing a quarterback as gifted as Lawrence, it's easy to venture into hyperbole and become fixated on the physical tools. But Lawrence also shows savvy in the pocket, picking up and sliding around well while keeping his eyes downfield to maximize passing opportunities. He is also remarkably accurate on short and intermediate-level throws, showing not only the courage to zip passes through tight windows but also the ability to change up speeds and consistently hit receivers in stride.

Lawrence also appears to be a public relations dream off the field. Dedicated to his Christian faith and engaged this past summer to his high school sweetheart, Lawrence appears to be the All-American model every club hopes to have as the face of a franchise. When it appeared college football might get shut down this past fall, Lawrence showed his passion for the game and leadership, even when he tested positive for the virus. When it became clear that his left (non-throwing) shoulder needed surgery, Lawrence demonstrated his competitiveness, pushing through the requisite Pro Day workout and undergoing the procedure as quickly as possible with the hope that he will be ready to participate fully in training camp.

None of this guarantees, of course, that Lawrence will ever become a star in the NFL.

But the draft is all about maximizing value, and that’s why the No. 1 pick this year is as valuable — and likely more so — as any has ever been before.

One of the most recognized names in the industry, Rang has been covering the NFL draft for over 20 years with his work found at FOX, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others.