National Football League

Cowboys may regret letting DeMarco Murray test the market

Published Mar. 2, 2015 3:01 p.m. ET

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Mike Garafolo

The Dallas Cowboys are playing a dangerous game with DeMarco Murray right now.

Over the weekend, team vice president Stephen Jones told FOX Sports Southwest the Cowboys plan to let DeMarco Murray test free agency "and then we'll talk and see."

That's a bold strategy for a team that obviously believes Murray has overpriced himself, and it's one that could quickly backfire.

This isn't Major League Baseball, where free agency is a slow, drawn-out process that can last several months. This is the NFL, and once the gates open, the big-ticket players get swept up in the flood. Murray is one of those premier free agents and arguably the best young running back to hit the market (if Dallas doesn't sign him by next Tuesday) since Michael Turner in 2008 -- and Turner was a backup before he became a free agent.

If Murray gets the chance to look elsewhere, the downhill runner could hit that hole faster than some of the ones he found behind his blockers last season.

It's a fascinating situation that's being affected by a number of factors, including:

The Cowboys are willing to let these factors play out because they surely believe they're protected by the three-day tampering period that opens on Saturday. During that window, Murray's agent can have discussions with other teams, but Murray can only agree to, or sign, a contract with the Cowboys.

So if Dallas believes Murray is getting the kind of offers he thinks he's going to get (estimates being kicked around during the scouting combine in Indianapolis were north of $6 million per season, with the ever-aggressive Colts lingering as a potential suitor), it  might think it can quickly adjust course before he truly hits the market.

But why even let it get to that point?

Murray just turned 27, which means he has three more seasons before he hits the magical age when a running back's production is supposed to fall off a cliff. He had an outstanding season in 2014, with 1,845 yards on 392 carries in the regular season plus 18 total games played despite a broken hand that slowed down his production only minimally. It was a career year, and Murray proved himself as a feature back. 

Murray also didn't do any bellyaching about his contract during or after the season. As the Cowboys are walking on eggshells regarding wideout Dez Bryant and how he'll react to the franchise tag instead of a long-term deal, no one seemed concerned with how Murray would perceive the "slow" contract talks, as Jones referred to them. (Sources say the sides have had no significant discussions of late and that the Cowboys have shown no urgency.)

Murray, who insisted on reporters' agreeing to ask no questions about free agency or his contract before accepting a few interviews at the Pro Bowl, has been a consummate professional and teammate.

And don't misconstrue Murray's emergence as a one-year event. With the way he pounded the ball for the Cowboys' offense last season, it's easy to forget that in 2013 he averaged a half-yard more per carry (5.2 to 4.7 in 2014), had more catches per game (3.8 to 3.6) and had a comparable touchdown rate (10 in 14 games in '13, 13 in a full season in '14).

Murray was fantastic in the open field last season, though Cowboys coach Jason Garrett was often more impressed with Murray's "dirty" runs of only a few yards. Murray is a quick, decisive runner who is powerful in short areas, so he's able to create forward momentum where others are not.

"His impact on our football team was significant," Garrett said at the scouting combine. "Our ability to control the line of scrimmage, control the football, help the other parts of our team out, he was a big part of all of that. The value of being able to hand the ball to somebody 25 times a game week in and week out is significant, and his impact was huge for our team. But there's a business of the NFL that we all understand.

"I know both sides are talking, we're trying to get it done, and understand every decision we make is in the best interest of the Dallas Cowboys. We feel like DeMarco Murray has done a great job for our football team, and we'd love to have him back."

In an ideal world, the Cowboys would be able to choose between Adrian Peterson and Murray. In fact, they would play one against the other, knowing both would like to line up behind Tony Romo in 2015.

But Peterson isn't a sure thing at this point, not with his standoffs with the NFL and the Minnesota Vikings yet to play out. Neither are any of the draftees in what's considered a stacked group of running backs. Murray is more of a sure thing. He knows it, too, which is why he wants significant money.

The Cowboys tried to get Murray at a bargain rate over the past year, which makes sense considering how running backs have been devalued in free agency. But there is no comparison between the likes of Toby Gerhart, Donald Brown, a rundown Chris Johnson, a battered Maurice Jones-Drew and others to Murray, who is an effective runner just entering his prime and a feature back in an era of backfield committees. Plus, with the salary cap going up another $10 million to $143.28 million, the rates at every position should be increasing.

There are teams with plenty of cash to spend because, under the new collective bargaining agreement, they have to do so. The Oakland Raiders are one of them. Murray might have to weigh a huge offer from them or the Jacksonville Jaguars against a slightly less lucrative deal from a contending team.

Which is where the Colts come in.

Murray is everything Indy had hoped Trent Richardson would be - a reliable runner who can complement what's already become a dynamic passing game led by Andrew Luck. Add Murray and a legit running game to an offense that will benefit from one more year of experience for Luck and suddenly the Colts start to look less like a second-tier AFC pretender and more like a legit Super Bowl contender.

Of course, the Cowboys would point out their offensive line is better than Indy's and that Murray would risk a drop in production if he went there or elsewhere. Murray understands as much, which is why he'd like to stay in Dallas, all things being equal.

But all things aren't equal, and Murray wants his money. If he signs elsewhere, he'll be the first player to lead the NFL in rushing and then play for a different team the following season since 1947.

If the Cowboys think he won't make such a move for the right price, they'll soon learn they're mistaken.

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