Major League Baseball

Who wins the offseason Yanks, Sox war?

Published Jan. 9, 2010 12:01 a.m. ET

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Bob Klapisch

Yankee fans must’ve been woozy last month when they heard Theo Epstein call 2010 a “bridge” season. Was this some alternate universe? Were the Red Sox actually conceding the East before Opening Day?

Not exactly.

Instead of fast-forwarding to 2011, Boston signed John Lackey and has systematically upgraded its defense — the Sox now have four Gold Glove winners in their starting lineup.

It’s a new look, a new philosophy in the Thousand Year War against the Yankees, and probably a necessary one. The Sox finished 28th among the major leagues’ 30 teams in defensive efficiency in 2009.

So with the makeover comes the burning question: which team in this great rivalry had the better offseason? It depends on your calculus for run-differential — overwhelming firepower or air-tight defense?

Here’s a breakdown of Epstein’s moves compared to rival Brian Cashman’s.

INFIELD: The Sox added Adrian Beltre, who joins Mike Cameron, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia as the Sox’ reigning Gold Glove winners.

Beltre will team up with Marco Scutaro to give the Sox an advantage over the Yankees in run prevention. Scutaro’s .984 fielding percentage was slightly below league-leader Derek Jeter’s .986, but he had 81 more assists and turned 24 more double plays than the Yankee shortstop.

And Beltre, of course, offers the Sox more than just soft hands. He signed a one-year $9 million deal with Boston after turning down a similar set of offers from the A’s — three years, $24 million, two years $18 million or $9 million for one year. Clearly, Beltre wanted the bigger stage and the near-guarantee of playing in October. The Green Monster was an awfully good recruiting tool, as well.

While he’s probably past his days of hitting 40 HRs (48 in 2004), it’s a safe to say Beltre can slug 20 homers in Boston and hit at least 30 doubles off the Wall. That, plus his glove, are reasonable trade-offs for the fact that Beltre has a.325 career on-base percentage and, since 2006, has swung at non-strikes 65 percent of the time, as noted by the Boston Herald.

But it remains to be seen whether this defense-first gamble will pay off for Epstein. Remember: the Sox led the majors in fielding percentage in 2006, but failed to make it to the playoffs.

The Bombers, meanwhile, added Nick Johnson, who will occasionally spell Mark Teixeira at first base but will serve mostly as DH. He’s slow and injury–prone, but the Yankees believe Johnson’s career .402 on-base percentage and .292 average against lefthanders will off-set the loss of Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon.

Johnson will bat second in the Yankees’ lineup, which prompts Cashman to predict, “we’re going to be the toughest 1-through-4 (Derek Jeter, Johnson, Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez) in baseball. By the time a pitcher gets to No. 5, he’s going to be exhausted.”

Advantage (Offense): Yankees
Advantage (Defense): Red Sox.

OUTFIELD: Cameron, a three-time Gold Glover, will inherit centerfield, turning Jacoby Ellsbury into an obvious defensive upgrade over Jason Bay in left. But in a smaller ballpark and with that enormous Wall behind him, Cameron’s skills won’t be as much of a factor as they’ve been in the past. He does his best work in bigger pastures, where he can range, roam and sprint.

However, Cameron could be just as much a home run threat as Beltre, having slugged at least 21 HRs in five of the last six years. But the Yankees think Curtis Granderson will make an even bigger impact at the Stadium, where the right field wall is 15 feet closer than at Comerica Park.

Granderson’s downfall is left-handed pitching: he has only a .210 career average against them, and sunk to .183 last year. Cashman says, “there’s nothing we see on video that really explains (that deficiency)” and hopes hitting as low as the seventh will make it easier to hide his flaws.

Like Cameron, Granderson strikes out at an astonishing rate — once every 4.2 at-bats. But the Yankees think the potential for a 40-HR season is realistic enough to absorb his swings-and-misses and low .327 on-base percentage.

Advantage: Yankees


PITCHING: The Bombers’ brain trust was more than surprised at the Sox’ signing of Lackey last month. Committing five years to a pitcher with a recent history of arm trouble, “just isn’t like Theo,” said one Yankee official.

Still, assuming he stays healthy, Lackey will become a critical asset in the postseason, where he has a career 3.12 ERA. The only reminder you need about Lackey’s mental toughness is that he won Game 7 of the 2002 World Series as a 23-year-old rookie.

Lackey only has a 5-7 career record against the Yankees, but he’s pitched well in the Bronx, where he’s posted a 3.76 ERA.

The Bombers have the same faith in Javier Vazquez, who’s coming off a 15-win season in Atlanta and a near-sterling decade: the right-hander totaled 2,001 strikeouts, second only to Randy Johnson in the 10-year period.

Those are nice, shiny numbers, but the Yankees want to know if Vazquez can overcome the legacy of Game 7 of the 2004 AL Championship Series. Vazquez’s moment of infamy was imprinted upon Johnny Damon’s grand slam into the upper deck in the second inning, paving the way to the Red Sox’ 10-3 rout and completing the worst postseason collapse in baseball history.

So how does Vazquez cope with his return? Two ways, say the Yankees: first, he’ll be pitching in the No. 4 spot in the rotation now, and as Cashman says, “we’re not going to be counting on him the way we did (in 2004).”

Vazquez says he’s also more mature and more prepared for New York now, and has three good years with the White Sox to prove he wasn’t permanently traumatized by Damon’s HR. Vazquez reached 200 strikeouts and won 27 games in 2007-2008.

Cashman admits Vazquez’s second act is a “gamble” — especially with a 10.34 ERA in the postseason — but nevertheless says, “we think this has a chance to work out pretty well.”

Advantage: Red Sox

Overall, the Red Sox and Yankees are both improved, but unless Boston can find a way to contain the Bombers’ long-ball threat, their defensive upgrades won’t be enough to win the division.

Offseason winner: Red Sox

AL East winner: Yankees (with Red Sox as the wild card).

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