Major League Baseball

Wait, the Phillies might not trade Cole Hamels?

Published Jul. 18, 2015 12:27 p.m. ET

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By Joe Lucia 

The dysfunctional Philadelphia Phillies might hold off on dealing their best trade chip over the next two weeks. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, it’s not a guarantee that Cole Hamels will be dealt before the trade deadline, and that incoming team president Andy MacPhail could wait until the winter.

[Read Sherman's two tweets here and here.]

I actually sort of understand the Phillies’ thinking here. This month, while Hamels is the best starter on the market, the Phillies will still have to compete with other teams looking to move high-level arms like Johnny Cueto. But then again, this is a seller’s market, and the Phillies aren’t going to have to “settle” for a lesser offer just because a team can get someone like Mike Leake or Kyle Lohse for cheaper.

Even though Hamels has been healthy throughout his career, the Phillies also run the risk of him suffering a value-crippling injury over the final two months of the 2015 season if they hold off on moving him. If the 31-year old blows his elbow out, his value is gone – he wouldn’t pitch at all in 2016 and would make $23.5 million to not throw at all. Then, any team looking to acquire him would be getting a guy making $47 million for his age 33 and 34 seasons that hasn’t pitched in a year. Solid prospect return? *WHAT* solid prospect return?

And while the Phillies won’t necessarily have to deal with strong alternatives for Hamels on the trade market this winter, they’ll have to deal with a much stronger class of free agents. The aforementioned Cueto, Leake, and Lohse are all free agents, along with the crown jewel of the class in David Price, Yovani Gallardo, Mat Latos, Jeff Samardzija, Jordan Zimmermann, and more likely than not, Zack Greinke. So a team can give up prospects to acquire three years of Hamels at $70.5 million -- or pay roughly the same money over three years (with another three tacked on) for one of the elite pitchers on the market.

If I was in the Phillies’ front office, I’d be beating the drum on trading Hamels right now. So few teams are sellers, and while there is some competition on the trade market, the free agent market this winter is so robust that a market for Hamels probably wouldn’t materialize until after the new year. And while the risk of an injury doesn’t seem too strong with Hamels, it wasn’t that strong with Cliff Lee either -- and he hasn’t thrown a pitch since last year’s trade deadline.

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