Major League Baseball

MLB Odds: Lines on Aaron Judge's next team, from Giants to Phillies

Published Nov. 8, 2022 2:10 p.m. ET

Aaron Judge is coming off of one of the greatest individual seasons ever by a player in the New York Yankees' rich history. Judge hit 62 home runs in the regular season, breaking Yankees legend Roger Maris's single-season American League home run record.

But the Yankees once again faltered in the playoffs, losing to the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series for the third time in six years. If that wasn't bad enough, Judge is now a free agent after turning down a massive contract extension from the Yankees before the season, free to sign with whoever he chooses.

"All Rise's" free agency seems poised to be the story of the MLB offseason, with bettors closely monitoring every rumor surrounding the slugger.

If Judge bucks the tradition of past Yankee stars and does not re-sign with New York, FOX Bet has some hypothetical odds on where he might be playing next season. Let's dive in.

ODDS ON AARON JUDGE'S NEXT TEAM*

San Francisco Giants: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Los Angeles Dodgers: +350
Houston Astros: +500
Texas Rangers: +650
Boston Red Sox: +800
Philadelphia Phillies: +1000
The Field: +700

*As of 11/8/22

"The anticipation is that Judge will remain a Yankee, but you can't blame him for testing the free agent market, and odds are he'll see the richest contract in MLB history by the time the courting is over," said FOX Bet trading operations associate Matthew Griffe.

The Giants have been heavily linked to Judge in reports for several months now, and San Francisco makes sense to have the shortest odds for several reasons. For one, Judge is from Northern California. He was born in Sacramento, grew up in nearby Linden, Calif. and starred as a college baseball player at Fresno State.

When explaining the reasoning behind the Giants having the shortest odds to be Judge's new team, Griffe pointed to their status as Judge's hometown squad as well as a recent report from NJ Advance Media that San Francisco's ownership group "won't be underbid" for the slugger's services.

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The Giants' archrival in Southern California, the Dodgers, have the next-shortest odds on the list. The Dodgers have made several big splashes over the past few offseasons, including a blockbuster trade for Mookie Betts in early 2020 that aided their first World Series championship in 32 years. The Dodgers then signed fellow perennial all-star Freddie Freeman last offseason, moving incumbent first baseman Max Muncy to third base.

Betts seems entrenched as the Dodgers' starting right fielder, but the team flirted with moving him to second base when they were involved in the Juan Soto trade sweepstakes and could reportedly do so again to make room for Judge.

Next up are the Texas teams: the 2022 World Series champion Astros and their own in-state rival, the Rangers. Judge knows full well what the Astros can do thanks to those aforementioned ALCS losses. The Rangers have also shown a willingness to spend big, signing second baseman Marcus Semien and shortstop Corey Seager to lucrative contracts last offseason. Bruce Bochy — who won three World Series titles with Judge's hometown Giants — was also recently hired as the Rangers' new manager.

Rounding out the list of teams with specific odds are the Red Sox and Phillies. The Red Sox are coming off a disappointing 2022 but could easily turn that around in their fans' eyes by signing their rivals' biggest star. The Phillies, meanwhile, are fresh off a surprise run to the World Series and could pair Judge with fellow superstar outfielder Bryce Harper.

Still, FOX Sports MLB betting analyst Edward Egros believes Judge's current team is still the one to beat in the slugger's free agency sweepstakes.

"Judge and the Yankees are in this position in the first place because of his health," Egros said. "Whether it’s his calf strains from two seasons ago or his oblique strain from 2019, there is an argument to be made that the 30-year-old outfielder may not be as readily available as the most lucrative contract would make sense for. However, no one would know the risks better than the Yankees, and if anyone can figure out ways to preserve him into the latter parts of his career, it’s them.

"The Yankees’ resourcefulness is why I believe Judge will stay put."