Major League Baseball

MLB odds: Adley Rutschman making late Rookie of Year charge

Published Aug. 17, 2022 7:38 p.m. ET

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By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class is back in session! 

Today, we are updating a previous lesson on MLB Rookie of the Year futures. Specifically, let’s look at an interesting trend in the American League.

Not only is Seattle outfielder Julio Rodriguez one of the main reasons why the Mariners are almost guaranteed to end their postseason drought, he’s been a sizable favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year honors for some time.

Until now.

LOWEST AL ROOKIE OF YEAR ODDS (at FOX Bet) *

Julio Rodriguez, Mariners: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Adley Rutschman, Orioles: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Jeremy Pena, Astros: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: +1700 Bet Boost, was +1500 (bet $10 to win $180 total)

* = as of 8/17/2022

Orioles prospect Adley Rutschman once kicked a 63-yard FG

Orioles prospect Adley Rutschman discusses a record-breaking FG with Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman ahead of the MLB ASG Futures Game in Denver.

Earlier this month, Baltimore catcher Adley Rutschman was +4500 to win the award. He has since closed in to where he is now +500 on FOX Bet. Rodriguez remains the favorite at -500, but could this gap narrow even more before the end of the season? And should you invest in Rutschman now or wait for Rodriguez to expect a bigger payout?

You may be wondering why Rutschman is even in this conversation. After all, he’s played 32 fewer games than Rodriguez.

That’s where FanGraphs WAR comes in. It’s a cumulative statistic that does reward increased playing time; however, if a player is performing at an elite level, that will outweigh the lack of games. 

In this comparison, Rodriguez has a narrow lead over Rutschman (3.1 vs 3.0) among all AL rookies. Even with the lack of playing time, Rutschman has almost more than made up for it.

Breaking down this metric begins with analyzing their bats:

Rodriguez has shown more pop with a higher home run rate. He’s also had more success when it comes to batting average on balls in play (.337 vs .286); however, this statistic is not as predictive as things like plate discipline. Rutschman’s walk rate is 6.5% greater and his strikeout rate is approximately 10% lower.

What matters more is if all of these trends will continue for the rest of the season. 

That’s where Statcast comes in:

By isolating measurables beyond the box score – like exit velocity and launch angle – we have two résumés that are basically identical. Rodriguez should continue showing more power but Rutschman’s ability to get on base and avoid strikeouts gives him an overall edge.

The other key differentiator involves defense. Obviously these rookies play different roles, so it’s better to break down how they perform compared with others at their position.

One way to measure outfielder contributions is with Outs Above Average (OAA). This statistic assigns probabilities to how likely an outfielder will record an out based upon how difficult it was to make any specific play. Compared with all other center fielders in MLB, Rodriguez ranks 10th with five OAA.

To analyze catchers, we have two metrics at our disposal: framing and pop time. Framing involves positioning the catcher’s mitt around the strike zone to where a borderline pitch is called a strike. The more borderline calls that become strikes, the better the framing. These strikes are then converted to runs saved. Compared with all other catchers in MLB, Rutschman ranks 11th with three catcher framing runs.

As for pop time, this statistic looks at how quickly a catcher can throw to a fielder in position to thwart a steal attempt. Rutschman’s average pop time to second base of 1.92 seconds ranks sixth in MLB, and his pop time to third of 1.51 seconds ranks 15th.

Because a catcher plays a bigger role defensively than a center fielder, that position gets a more positive adjustment when comparing different players. Not only does Rutschman play a tougher role, he’s slightly better at it than Rodriguez.

It’s important to note – assuming both players finish the season – that 32-game gap between Rodriguez and Rutschman will not seem very significant. Rutschman’s plate discipline and ability to get on base are such major advantages that he could also be the better slugger by season’s end. 

If you haven’t bet on Rutschman to win Rookie of the Year, now is the time to do so.

Class dismissed!

PICK: Adley Rutschman wins AL Rookie of Year (+500 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $60 total)

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football.  Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports. 

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