Major League Baseball

How to pitch to Shohei Ohtani? Aim low and outside, and hope for the best

Updated Jul. 29, 2021 9:46 p.m. ET

By Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer

DENVER — Shohei Ohtani will step into the Coors Field batter’s box Monday as the unequivocal star of the 2021 season’s first half, and he will do so in an environment that might as well have been designed for him to demonstrate his supremacy.

Ohtani will swing away in his first Home Run Derby at elevation, amid 90-plus-degree weather and without the use of the humidor that typically restrains ball flight in this setting. All this for a 27-year-old who already plays as if he is capable of anything.

The next night, he’ll step into the box again for the Major League Baseball All-Star Game (coverage begins at 7 p.m. ET Tuesday on FOX) when he leads off as the American League's designated hitter. Then, in the bottom of the first inning, he'll take the mound to become the first two-way player in the Midsummer Classic.

But it is Ohtani's hitting ability that is the talk of the sport these days: his superior power, his seeming ability to take any pitch and hit it anywhere. Where do you pitch this man?

Evaluators polled by FOX Sports say the target must remain the low-and-outside corner, erring outside the zone if possible. The problem, they point out, is that Ohtani has gotten better at refraining from pitches in that location.

Through Saturday, per Statcast data, pitchers had thrown him nearly 300 pitches either too low or too outside, by far the most he sees anywhere. Left-handers, in particular, pound that region against the lefty-hitting Ohtani, sweeping across the plate with nearly one-third of their offerings. He swings only 24% of the time.

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Again, where do you pitch this man? He punishes most pitches over the middle and even those inside, whether lower or higher. His lowest slugging percentage within the zone is on pitches up and away, but even there, his slugging percentage is an All-Star-caliber .571, and his 40% line-drive percentage is his highest anywhere.

As a pitcher, Ohtani has one obvious weakness: his command, which causes him to walk too many men. As a hitter, he lacks any. That’s how he has hit 33 home runs in 343 plate appearances.

"He’s at that point," one scout said, "where it’s best if the manager points to first base."

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Mike Trout, his Los Angeles Angels teammate, framed Ohtani’s Derby performance as more a matter of what he wants to do than what he can do. Banishing a baseball outside the stadium altogether, Trout hinted, is possible. Landing one in the distant left-field concourse, opposite field, is also possible.

"I’m saying it now. If you haven’t seen him take BP, watch him in the Home Run Derby. Because it’s gonna be a show," Trout said. "He can hit, line-to-line, stupid power. To see him hit in Colorado, with them balls, obviously, during the Derby, it’s gonna be must-see TV. It’s just such an easy swing, but it’s violent."

Derby regulations figure to favor Ohtani. The three-round, single-elimination outing includes four minutes per round, with 30 seconds of additional time provided if hitters amass two 440-foot home runs within one round.

Ohtani might find himself with double time. He managed a 463-footer near sea level over the weekend in Seattle. Physicist Alan Nathan told MLB.com that 540-foot home runs are within the realm of possibility in Denver.

For his assessments, Trout is operating on the batting-practice evidence he has observed in years past, as well as what he has seen in games this year because Ohtani has stopped taking on-field BP. In so doing, he is following in the footsteps of Trout and, before him, teammate Justin Upton, who brought the strategy to the Angels after his midseason 2017 trade from Detroit. Upton chose to take focused swings against a pitching machine inside, rather than showy swings outside.

Ohtani now does the same, prepping against high velocity and, likely, pitches in the specific areas where opponents target him. Perhaps that explains why he has been so much better against them.

Another explanation might be that he is simply more talented than everyone else — and able to adapt faster, as evidenced by his emergence early in the 2018 season after a rough spring training.

So where to pitch Ohtani? Well, if you’re Jason Brown, the Angels' bullpen catcher who will throw to him Monday in the Derby, middle-middle and middle-in are great. Ohtani attacks both for homers and plenty of slugging percentage.

If you’re an opponent who will face him in the second half, you hope this week tires him out, and you hope he starts chasing more than he has. Because as of now, there is nowhere to comfortably, halfway-confidently pitch Ohtani.

Yes, if you get to two strikes, you can aim to make him reach low and away. But if you miss up at all, he’ll make you pay.

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He most recently covered the Dodgers for three seasons for The Athletic. Previously, he spent five years covering the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and Los Angeles Times. More previously, he covered his alma mater, USC, for ESPNLosAngeles.com. The son of Brazilian immigrants, he grew up in the Southern California suburbs. Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.