Major League Baseball

EVAN GRANT'S MATCHUPS

Published Oct. 15, 2010 10:09 p.m. ET

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Three things that will determine the outcome of the American League Championship Series:

Rangers' running game big part of success

Will the Rangers run like a deer or be hunted like them?

In winning the division series, the Rangers served notice they will be aggressive on the basepaths when presented with the opportunity. The Yankees already knew that. In a Rangers' three-game sweep in September, Texas stole five bases without being caught against Jorge Posada, who will probably start vs. lefties, and Francisco Cervelli.

The question is whether they can continue to run now that the entire nation is familiar with the sign of the antlers.

If anything, the success in the division series is only likely to make the Rangers more aggressive on the basepaths. They led the majors in times going from first to third on a single this season, and were seventh in the majors in stolen bases, but they were also among the leaders in "unforced baserunning errors," which tries to calculate how often a team ran into outs on the bases.

The Yankees pay attention to details. Last year, they faced the equally aggressive Los Angeles Angels in the ALCS. The Angels stole four bases in five attempts. And they still went home in six games.

Expect the Rangers, who have stolen 33 bases in 39 attempts since Sept. 1, to try to put pressure on the Yankees in the same fashion they did against Tampa Bay.

If the Rangers are successful, expect them to keep doing it until the Yankees show them they are capable of stopping it.

Crime problem

The Yankees ranked last in the AL in caught-stealing percentage, a stat the Rangers may try to exploit in the AL Championship Series. A look at the bottom five steal-stopping AL teams by percentage and how the Rangers ran against them:

Opponents Rangers Team SB Pct SB CS Pct. New York 132 88.0 8 0 100 Boston 169 85.4 22 5 81.4 Oakland 88 83.8 12 7 63.2 LA 133 82.6 20 6 76.9 Chicago 105 82.0 4 3 57.1

Is Josh Hamilton ready to produce?

Josh Hamilton believes he's ready to return as a force in the Rangers lineup. The way he'll do it: He'll try to do a whole lot less.

With Hamilton, less is often more. Less effort plus less thought equals less stress and that equals far more production.

Hamilton said the problem with his swing during the AL Division Series was not so much his fractured ribs - oh, they'll be sore for several more weeks after the end of the season - but rather his desire to immediately step in and try to be a key run producer after missing 25 days in September. Hamilton ended up going 2-for-18 during the ALDS. He had just one RBI. That came on a groundout, and he only got credit for it because Elvis Andrus dashed all the way from second to score.

"The swing feels the best its felt all year," Hamilton said. "I feel good at the plate, mechanically. The biggest thing has been trying to do too much. The past couple of games, I tried to start focusing back on seeing the ball out of the pitcher's hand and not letting too much adrenaline build up. I feel like I saw the ball well in the last couple of games.

The ALDS also offered a "perfect storm" of bad statistical splits for Hamilton.

He is far better at night, than during the day, but four games were played in daytime hours. He's far better at home than on the road, but the majority of the games were played in St. Petersburg, Fla. And he's far more successful in Yankee Stadium than he has been at Tropicana Field. If the series goes seven games, the majority of games will be at night and in Arlington.

Throw strike one ... and strike two

Against Tampa Bay, which led the AL in strikeouts, simply getting ahead of the hitters was enough to give Rangers pitchers a distinct advantage.

With the Yankees, you've got to further.

While the Rays' batting averages and on-base percentages dropped sharply after pitchers got ahead 0-and-1 or got to two strikes, the Yankees make it much tougher on pitchers to get the out even when the pitchers are ahead in the count.

The Yankees drive pitch counts higher and higher and force starting pitchers to work harder and harder. It often forces early exits by starters, allowing the Yankees to prey on the weakest part of every club - the middle of the bullpen. C.J. Wilson, for example, led the Rangers in innings pitched during the season, but he averaged less than five innings per start against the Yankees.

"The thing that hurt me in all three of my starts was just the high pitch count from walks and stuff like that, from falling behind in the count," Wilson said. "I think I'm just going to get that knuckleball over the plate first pitch and see where we go from there. This is obviously a good hitting team and they are prepared."

Wilson walked three in each of his starts against the Yankees. Colby Lewis, whose Game 2 start will be his first outing against the Yankees , walked five in Game 3 of the division series on Saturday.

Unlike the Rays, the Yankee hitters make pitchers earn every out, by putting pressure on every pitch.

Strikingly different

A look at how the Yankees'on-base percentage changed in certain pitcher-friendly counts compared to Tampa Bay and the AL average in 2010:

Team Overall After 0-1 With 2 strikes Yankees .350 (1) .302 (1) .289 (1) AL avg. .327 .271 .257 Rays .333 (6) .264 (8) .249 (9)

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