Major League Baseball

Crawford a lot like Clemente ... so far

Published Nov. 14, 2010 12:00 a.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

Ken Rosenthal

Agent Scott Boras created a stir last week when he said his client, free-agent third baseman Adrian Beltre, performed at levels “commensurate” with Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt, George Brett and Paul Molitor from ages 25 to 31.

Hey, it's that time of year.

As the general managers meetings begin Monday in Orlando, with trade and free-agent discussions growing in intensity, the sales pitches will only grow stronger.

Well, my favorite sales pitch is coming not from an agent, but from the similarity scores at baseball-reference.com.

The player to whom Carl Crawford was most similar to statistically — through ages 26, 27 and 28 — is none other than Hall of Famer Roberto Clemente.

The scores, introduced by Bill James, reveal a player's closest statistical twin. James' system is point-based — and no gimmick. Crawford's slash line through age 28 is indeed quite similar to Clemente's.

Clemente: .303/.337/.439
Crawford: .296/.337/.444

Such comparisons are never perfect. Clemente's numbers are more impressive considering he competed in a less offensive era. He also played right field and had a much stronger arm than Crawford, who plays left. Crawford, on the other hand, is a far more accomplished base stealer.

The real question is whether the rest of Crawford's career will be as impressive as the final nine seasons of Clemente's. From 1955-63, Clemente's OPS was .776. From 1964-72, it was .892.

Crawford will need to improve both his on-base and slugging percentages to follow Clemente's career arc. He established career highs last season in home runs and slugging. His on-base percentage was just eight points off his previous best from the year before.

The next Clemente? That might be a stretch. But Crawford's at least in the discussion, and that's a start.

BREW CREW OPEN FOR BUSINESS

No, the Brewers aren't going to trade left fielder Ryan Braun — “with that contract,” one executive says, referring to Braun's eight-year, $45 million deal that runs through 2015, “you'd have to get six players for him.”

The Brewers, though, are open to trading any of their other top offensive players as they try to upgrade their rotation — second baseman Rickie Weeks, third baseman Casey McGehee and especially first baseman Prince Fielder.

Both Weeks and Fielder are free agents after next season — and Weeks, represented by Greg Genske, might not be any more willing to entertain an extension than Fielder, who's represented by Boras. At the very least, Weeks might want to wait on the outcome of the Marlins' negotiations with Dan Uggla, who's eligible for free agency at the same time.

The Brewers' problem is they don't want to trade for Nos. 4 and 5 starters, and teams are unwilling to trade their Nos. 1-2-3. The Braves, for example, won't trade right-hander Tommy Hanson. They might be open on righty Jair Jurrjens, but only for the right deal.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post raised the possibility of the Brewers trading Fielder for White Sox right-hander Gavin Floyd — if the White Sox strike out on a left-handed slugger in free agency.

Floyd, though, remains affordable through 2013, and he produces above-average results in the AL in a hitter-friendly park. Fielder likely would amount to only a one-year rental for the White Sox, whose GM, Ken Williams, rarely makes big deals with Boras.

GONZALEZ: STILL IN DEMAND

The Padres continue to receive calls on first baseman Adrian Gonzalez even though Gonzalez recently said he'll be unable to swing a bat for four to five months after undergoing right shoulder surgery.

One reason teams might not be discouraged by the uncertainty: Gonzalez underwent surgery with the idea of putting up monster numbers next season before hitting free agency.

Gonzalez, forced by his injury to use a lighter bat in the second half of last season, was disappointed by his diminished power — he hit only 10 of his 31 homers after Aug. 1.

If his recovery proceeds smoothly, his shoulder no longer should be an issue.

THE CASE AGAINST DUNN AS A CUB

The Cubs, accustomed to strong first-base defense in the past from Derrek Lee, might prefer a stronger fielder than Adam Dunn — particularly given the makeup of the rest of their infield.

Advance metrics portray second baseman Blake DeWitt and third baseman Aramis Ramirez as below-average defenders, while shortstop Starlin Castro will be only 21 next season and still prone to mistakes.

Dunn's made clear his distaste for a designated hitter's role, but he isn't about to rule out AL clubs, who comprise nearly one-half of his market. He could seek a longer term in exchange for accepting full-time DH duty.

MAYBIN: THE PADRES' MR. MAYBE

The Padres assumed the greater risk in obtaining center fielder Cameron Maybin from the Marlins for relievers Ryan Webb and Edwin Mujica.

Maybin, 23, could benefit from a change of scenery and lower expectations, but questions persist about his concentration, instincts and ability to hit breaking balls.

The Padres, whose center fielders combined to hit only .234 last season, figure that Maybin, even with only marginal improvement, will be better than what they had.

The Pads also are gambling that Maybin could develop late, following the pattern of several other athletic center fielders — Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron, Angel Pagan and Franklin Gutierrez. People forget, but Hunter was optioned to the minors two months before he turned 25.

Look for the Padres to continue trying to infuse athleticism into their organization — they've also spoken multiple times to the Brewers about Double-A second baseman Brett Lawrie.

The Brewers are willing to discuss trading Lawrie for young pitching. Eric Farris, another of their second-base prospects, is batting .379 in the Arizona Fall League and is an outstanding defender with base-stealing ability.

RED SOX'S DOUBRONT: GOING, GOING ...

At least two GMs are highly skeptical that left-hander Felix Doubront will play a major role in the Red Sox's bullpen next season.

Doubront, they say, is more likely to be traded.

The Sox frequently offered Doubront in past trade discussions, and the departure of pitching coach John Farrell to the Blue Jays deprived the pitcher of his leading advocate in the organization.

One GM says of Doubront: “It's guaranteed he's traded by next July 31, and probably this offseason.” A second adds: “They would part with him in a heartbeat to upgrade.”

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, however, refutes the idea that Doubront is likely to be traded.

"That report couldn't be further from the truth," Epstein said. "We value Felix tremendously. He has a definite future. We see him as a starter long-term, and he could impact our bullpen or rotation in 2011."

METS, METS, METS

AROUND THE HORN

share

Get more from Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

Major League Baseball