Cleveland Indians: 5 Reasons the Indians May Not Win the 2017 World Series
The Cleveland Indians have a great chance at winning the American League Central Division, but do they have the talent and luck to win the 2017 World Series?
A week ago, I outlined the 5 reasons the Cleveland Indians will win the World Series in 2017, but baseball is not a game played on stat sheets and paper. It is a game consisting of 162 regular season games, four rounds of playoffs, and one million factors working together.
For the Chicago Cubs to complete their journey to a title, they needed everything to go right. In the end, they won the World Series by one run in the 10th inning after a rain delay. There is no way to predict or plan for all the problems every team faces every season, game, inning, or pitch.
Going into the 2017 season, the Indians’ only goal is to win a championship for the first time since 1948, but as was seen last year, injuries and other issues pop up at terrible times.
On paper, the Indians are maybe the best overall team in the American League after the Edwin Encarnacion signing, but again, paper does not win games.
With so much randomness in every second of a baseball season, nothing is a given for this Tribe team.
Because every year brings new problems (ask the 2008 Indians team that went 81-81 after being a game from the World Series in 2007), the Indians will need to work very hard to repeat (and surpass) the 2016 season.
Spring Training is still a month away, but here are the 5 reasons the Indians will NOT win the World Series in 2017.
No Outfield Help this Year
The Cleveland Indians are in the same (if not worse) position in regards to the outfield as they were at the beginning of the 2016 season. With Lonnie Chisenhall, Brandon Guyer, Tyler Naquin, and Abraham Almonte being the four fully healthy players as of right now who are slated to make the Opening Day roster, a lot of questions remain.
The main question is Michael Brantley. If he can return healthy, the left field spot is filled. If he returns anything less than 75 percent of his 2015 self, the team has some tough decisions. If he can hit (and hit in clutch situations) again, his bat will be a nice addition to an already potent line-up. If not, who plays out in left?
Guyer and Almonte are definitely candidates, along with Jose Ramirez, but none of these is a permanent fix – especially Ramirez who is supposed to start the year as the everyday third baseman.
If Ramirez plays some games in left, that leaves third open for minor leaguers Giovanni Urshela or Yandy Diaz, but both would definitely be a downgrade from having Ramirez and Brantley in the lineup every day.
As for the other two positions in the outfield, Naquin must improve his defense to be an everyday player (along with his hitting of the fastball as every article on him has mentioned). He seems more suited for right field with his strong arm.
With Chisenhall being the only player who looks like they could play every day if needed, who do the Indians rely on if Brantley is not ready? Last season Marlon Byrd and Rajai Davis saved the day, but this year the team doesn’t have money for those signings.
Prospects Bradley Zimmer and Greg Allen are also options, but neither will be ready for Opening Day. Zimmer hit .250 last year in the minors so hitting Major League pitching just doesn’t seem feasible. Allen is less than a year younger than Zimmer and he seems to be more ready at the plate than Zimmer, but he hasn’t even played AAA baseball. Bringing up either would be a large stretch.
With Diaz playing some outfield recently, and not many more outfielders anywhere near Cleveland, a lot is riding on the Brantley injury.
Jose Ramirez will not do that again
One major reason the Indians were able to even compete in the playoffs last season was Jose Ramirez. Going into the season, Ramirez was an okay utility player who seemed to be lost in the shuffle. With Juan Uribe and a slew of outfielders signed to fill spots, Ramirez just did not seem necessary.
After his 2016 campaign it seems insane to think he was an afterthought, but looking at his numbers before it’s not hard to see why he was overlooked.
In 2015, Ramirez hit .219 in 97 games. He stole 10 bases and was adequate in the field (though terrible at times). In 2014, he hit .262.
Going into the 2016 season, he was a guy who just did not look to be an everyday Major Leaguer, but then he started to hit. It was clear from his first appearance that Ramirez had put on some muscle and some weight. It showed in his ability to hit and hit for power.
In 2016 he had 11 homers and 46(!) doubles. With Uribe struggling and Brantley out most of the season, Ramirez settled in nicely.
Now to spin this negatively…
Does anyone think Ramirez will hit .312 with 46 doubles again? Plus, his defensive WAR was a minuscule 0.1. He also hit a ridiculous .355 with RISP.
This isn’t meant to say he won’t have another good year, but it just seems crazy to think he will continue this level of production.
With Ramirez and Tyler Naquin likely to regress going into 2017, it leaves more holes in the Indians lineup.
Maybe this is just a typical Cleveland fans look at a player (as Ramirez has consistently hit the cover off the ball in the minors every season), but he was a large part of an offense that needs every cylinder firing.
Walkoffs and Luck
A remarkable 20 Indians games ended in walk-off fashion in 2016. Of those games, 11 were Tribe wins.
11 wins! Take away half of those and the Indians do not have home-field advantage against the Red Sox and the Tigers maybe inch closer to first place in the Central Division.
A lot of these walk-offs were incredible. Tyler Naquin’s inside-the-park home run will forever live on in Indians lore. The comeback against the Washington Nationals was phenomenal. And so on.
But 11 walk-offs cannot be expected every year. For comparison, the Red Sox had only three walk-off wins all season. To win games, the Indians need to score and keep leads more often because late inning heroics often don’t replicate year after year.
In 2013 and 2014 the Indians also had 11 walk-off wins. In 2015…two. Nine more walk-off wins in 2015 and the Indians make the playoffs as a wild card team.
The Indians won some games this year they, frankly, should not have won. Back-to-back homers after the Blue Jays led the entire game? That isn’t logical.
Along with hitting better the first few innings, the pitchers need to let the team get a lead. The worst inning for the Indians pitchers was the first (excluding the 16th inning). They gave up an average of .6 runs per first inning for a total of 97 throughout the year.
The Indians simply must play better in the first few innings to save relievers arms and also win games without walk-offs. Luck can only go so far.
Boston and Chicago
The Indians almost swept the American League playoffs (and then almost the World Series until losing 3 straight), but can this be expected next season?
Even if the Indians win the Central Division (considering the Tigers and Royals aren’t much competition anymore), they will be competing with the Red Sox and the Cubs (among others) for the best record and home-field advantage. The Red Sox may have been tamed by the Tribe last season, but they started the offseason off by acquiring starter Chris Sale and signing first baseman Mitch Moreland.
Boston did lose their big power in the middle of the lineup – David Ortiz – but they still have plenty of talent that led to an incredibly productive offense last season. With their revamped rotation now including another All-Star, the Indians will have to win plenty of games to get home field in the playoffs. Without home field, the Indians would have to play at the dreaded Fenway Park, and that never goes well (unless you’re Josh Tomlin).
Even if the Indians somehow win the AL and gain a rematch with the Cubs in the World Series, they will not have home field this time unless they win more games than the Cubs. The Cubs did lose Dexter Fowler and Aroldis Chapman, but they still have plenty of young talent and added reliever Wade Davis to the mix.
What the Indians did in the playoffs last season was amazing, but they aren’t the only powerful team in the MLB, or even the AL. They need to win every close game to have a chance in the playoffs. The Red Sox and Cubs will not go down quietly.
Getting Back
When the 2015 Kansas City Royals won the World Series, it was the final stop on a trek that had lasted for about a decade. Drafting and trading and developing had led to a World Series appearance in 2014 and then another the following season.
Although the Royals got in the 2014 playoffs as a Wild Card, they roared to a division title the following year to help win the championship.
What the Royals did was remarkable and is what the Indians hope to replicate, but 162 grueling games and 14 other teams competing for the one American League spot in the World Series means the road is extremely difficult.
The Indians have a good, young core, but in the playoffs anyone can beat any team. The Indians had 2.5 starters and beat the AL-favorite Red Sox. This year, the Indians are no longer an underdog, but that doesn’t mean a team cannot beat them in a five or seven-game series.
Getting to the World Series is nearly impossible, and the Indians have never gone in back-to-back years (including the highly-revered 90’s). With so many other teams that have a shot at the title (Boston, Texas, Houston, etc.), the Indians will have a difficult time even when healthy. If any starters struggle (i.e. Danny Salazar’s nagging injury or Encarnacion aging quickly before our eyes), the Indians will need to find a way to fill a spot with very little available money due to the Encarnacion deal.
Going to consecutive World Series is not unheard of, but it definitely takes a lot more than talent.
Either way, it will be an interesting year to watch.
More from Wahoo's on First
This article originally appeared on 
