Major League Baseball

Blue Jays' fate now depends on results of pitching search

Published Mar. 12, 2015 8:19 a.m. ET

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A couple weeks ago, the Toronto Blue Jays were my choice to win the American League East. Now I've downgraded them to a "probationary prediction" --€” pending the outcome of their search for pitching.

Obviously, Marcus Stroman's season-ending knee injury is the biggest reason. He was the Blue Jays' best pitcher after the All-Star break last year. He means about as much to the Blue Jays as Yu Darvish does to the Texas Rangers; the magnitude of their absences will be similar.

Teams can win without ace pitchers. Witness the 2011 Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) and 2014 Giants (Matt Cain). Of course, those teams had Chris Carpenter and Madison Bumgarner, respectively. The 2015 Blue Jays do not.

Then again, a solid rotation may be all it takes to win a mediocre AL East. Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, and Drew Hutchison are capable of pitching to that description. The Baltimore Orioles finished with 96 victories and a division crown in 2014, and their rotation consisted mostly of No. 2 and No. 3 starters.

The Jays' concern pertains to two unsettled rotation spots --€” both in who will occupy them, and what that will mean for an already-thin bullpen. (Presumptive closer Brett Cecil has rather ominously battled through shoulder problems this spring.)

Are Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez ready to start games in the major leagues? Yes, I believe they are. Are they ready to excel in bandbox AL East parks --€” and pitch deep enough to ensure half the bullpen isn't overused and on the disabled list by June? That is less certain.

Sanchez, 22, has thrown 33 innings in the majors, with zero starts; Norris, 21, has 6 2/3 innings and one start. History suggests it's unreasonable to expect both to surpass 170 innings this year. Since 1980, according to STATS LLC, only 10 teams have had two pitchers begin a season with fewer than 40 career major-league innings and then pitch 170 innings that year.

Only two of those teams --€” the '95 Dodgers (Ismael Valdez and Hideo Nomo) and '12 Athletics (Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker) --€” reached the postseason.

Twice in 35 years.

Swingman Marco Estrada, acquired in an offseason trade with the Brewers, gives the Blue Jays some insurance, but he's never started over a full season in the majors.

So, where should the Blue Jays look? The Arizona Diamondbacks are a good place to start. Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart have acquired a number of starting pitchers since taking charge of the team's baseball operations, meaning some holdovers from the Kevin Towers era --€” such as Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill and Chase Anderson --€” could be available.

Rather conveniently, the Blue Jays have the sort of veteran catcher (Dioner Navarro) the Diamondbacks covet.

That's not the splashy trade Blue Jays fans want, but fortifying the rotation with a No. 3 (or even No. 4) starter would lessen the burden on Norris and Sanchez. The division championship banner that will fly at Camden Yards suggests there is wisdom in that strategy.

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