Oct 7, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; A Texas Rangers fan holds a sign for Texas Rangers starting pitcher Yu Darvish prior to game two of the 2016 ALDS playoff baseball series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Right now, this news represents a mere tease – a toy that’s on an out-of-reach upper shelf or some one-of-a-kind technology that’s out of stock. Japanese Baseball star Shohei Otani is on the early roster for the 2017 World Baseball Classic.
The Atlanta Braves are on the prowl for starting pitching. There is no secret is saying that – and at least two new starters for the rotation are envisioned this off-season.
Exactly how that will be accomplished is not clear, but of all the prospect players in the world with aspirations to pitch in the majors, Shohei Otani is certainly – by far – the most intriguing.
This is not another Kenshin Kawakami, who had to convert to the rigors of an every-5th-day routine at age 34 after his glory days in Japan were wrapped up. This is a 22-year-old who is continuing to improve year-by-year and approaching ace-level pitching.
Oh, and he also hit .322 with 22 homers, 67 RBI and a 1.004 OPS in 382 plate appearances when he wasn’t about his day job. Yeah – he’s also an outfielder.
Otani has been named to the Japanese contingent that will represent the country next March in the 2017 edition of the World Baseball Classic (WBC). It is likely that he will pitch and hit, though Otani’s manager will have a sit-down session with him to discuss how that will work.
It’s a common issue for him and one that will continue to come up until and when he is ultimately posted for transfer to a Major League club.
When will that happen? That’s the $20 million question.
NPB Posting
The posting system for Nippon Professional Baseball works something like this:
– Player notifies his team of desire to go to the MLB
– Team agrees, notifies the MLB Commissioner of the arrangement and sets a Posting Fee that they will collect for the privilege of take their star away. In this case, the fee will almost certainly be the maximum of $20 million.
– All MLB teams will to meet the price of admission are allowed to contact the player. A 30-day negotiation window then begins between the player, his agent, and all teams willing to put up the fee.
– If a deal is not made, the player stays in Japan. Otherwise, he crosses the Pacific. The winning club’s Posting Fee check is then cashed; all others are shredded.
The Speculation Part
Normally, we wouldn’t even be having a conversation about Otani until he turns 30 or so. But at age 18, there was quite the battle in Japan to determine whether he would even submit to the NPB draft or come directly to the United States.
The Dodgers put in a lot of time and effort as part of the ‘selling’ process at that time, but in the end, he was drafted by the Nippon Ham Fighters and he has now completed his 4th season there. Seems the notions of life alone on a minor league bus vs. being a near-instant star at home won him over.
But there was still speculation that part of his deal with Nippon might be that he could put in a posting request with Nippon after some point early in his career. After 4 years? 5 years? His choice? We just don’t know, and there have been no hints to date.
Sep 21, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (19) against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
A Bidding Battle
If it’s the Ham Fighters’ choice, then there is little reason for them – aside from a not-insignificant $20 million payday – to send Otani away.
This would be akin to the Nationals – another division winner as were the Nippon club this year – allowing Max Scherzer to depart for a cash payment. In terms of baseball, it would be a serious loss. In terms of team marketing, it would be perhaps even more serious.
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But if the choice is Otani’s, then that changes things, for it would all be about the payday for him.
Most recently, Yu Darvish agreed to a 6 year, $56 million contract with the Rangers and Masahiro Tanaka broke the bank on a 7 year, $155 million deal with the Yankees.
If and when Otani is posted, you can bet that the numbers could get into the silly range – something like 10 years and $250 million would not be out of the question.
Certainly the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox would all be in on the bidding. The Dodgers – with their prior involvement – might even be considered the favorites.
But if a posting were to happen now (the window for this runs from November 1 to February 1), it is possible that the Atlanta Braves might want to take a look, given their new-found monetary resources… and needs.
Could Atlanta afford a deal of $25 million per year? As the team is currently configured… yes. Current payroll obligations are below $80 million for the next season and the payroll budget itself should approach $120 million (+/-).
Whether the Braves could actually out-bid deep-pocket teams (or would want to try) is another matter, but Otani would represent a rare commodity this off-season: a near-ace-level pitcher on the free agent market that could be locked up for his best seasons.
That Bat Thing
Word is that Otani would want to hit, too… and he does have next-level power in his swing. That would tend to make him gravitate toward either an American League squad or to a National League team with a need for an outfielder in at least a platoon role.
The Braves are neither, but their argument would be that of an American League scout who said last May that Otani will ultimately “have to make a choice” between pitching and hitting.
That said, the Giants are definitely showing how Madison Bumgarner can make use of his ample bat in a pinch-hitting role. Could their method be the prototype for a Shohei Otani script?
Still uncertain? I suppose I failed to mention that his fastball sits at around 97 mph with bursts of up to 102. With above average secondaries. And a 1.86 ERA this year.
Just thought I’d throw all that in.
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