Boston Red Sox

ALDS 2016: 5 Reasons Boston Red Sox will win

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

Sep 24, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts (50) along with shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) and teammates congratulate as they beat the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Boston Red Sox defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Here are the five biggest reasons the Boston Red Sox will take down the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS.

The Boston Red Sox enter the ALDS as the odds-on favorite to advance to the ALCS. To reach the winner of the Rangers-Blue Jays series, Boston will have to get past the Cleveland Indians, a team whose rotation suffered a handful of serious injuries down the stretch. With the American League’s deepest lineup, the Red Sox will pose a serious problem to the depleted Indians.

On the season, the Red Sox took four of six games from the Indians and outscored them 31-18. The depleted Indians hardly look like the team that will get in the way of the destined Red Sox-Cubs World Series that has the league and TV executives salivating. To make that happen and complete possibly the greatest send off in history for David Ortiz, Boston will have to get past the Indians, and here are the five reasons that will not be a problem.

5. We’re not in the AL Central anymore, Toto

The Cleveland Indians won 94 games this year and finished 27 games over .500. Breaking down that impressive record, however, shows that the Indians did most of their damage against the weak teams of the AL Central. The Tribe went 49-26 against their division playmates which included three teams that finished at .500 or lower and the 103-loss Minnesota Twins.

On the other hand, the Red Sox played in baseball’s best division. Four of the five teams finished in playoff contention, and the Sox still managed to finish 10 games above .500 against them. In September, with a heavy divisional slate, Boston managed to go 19-8, including an 11-game winning streak.

The Red Sox have played intense games against strong divisional rivals all season. The same cannot be said of the Indians as they waltzed over mediocre teams. Nothing against Cleveland, but all divisions and playoff teams are not created equal. The 93 wins generated by the Red Sox carry much more weight.

Sep 24, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Rick Porcello (22) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

4. Rick Porcello has dominated the Indians

If closer Zach Britton cannot win the AL Cy Young this year, the award will certainly go to Rick Porcello. After a disappointing season in 2015 after signing an $82.5-million extension, Porcello bounced back to win a league-leading 22 games with a 3.15 ERA. The right-hander will take the ball in Game 1.

Having spent the first six seasons of his career with the Detroit Tigers, Porcello has done battle against the Indians more than a few times. In the 22 starts he has made against them, he is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA over 129.0 innings. Porcello made one start against the Tribe this year and picked up the win after allowing two earned runs over 5.2 innings.

There are a few members of the Indians who have experienced success against Porcello in their careers. Jason Kipnis has had the most success, recording 10 hits in 31 at-bats. Carlos Santana leads in the power department, homering three times off Porcello. Keeping these two in check will be the biggest key.

Porcello is a strike-throwing machine who also led the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio. He had a career-low walk rate of 1.3 BB/9. Porcello is a pitch-to-contact type, and he has excelled all year at throwing strike one with his fastball. He also excels at controlling the running game. In 33 starts, opponents attempted only 10 stolen bases. The running game is a big part of the Indians offensive attack, and if Porcello can neutralize threats like Rajai Davis and Jose Ramirez, an important weapon will be taken away.

Sep 28, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (11) pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

3. Here comes Clay Buchholz

Clay Buchholz has emerged from the depths of the Red Sox bullpen to reclaim a spot in the rotation. At the All-Star break, imagining Buchholz starting a playoff game would have been unheard of, but he will take the ball in Game 3 having won three straight decisions. In the second half, the right-hander is 5-1 with a 3.22 ERA.

Buchholz will follow Game 2 starter David Price, and will provide an interesting change of pace. He sports an assortment of different pitches, all thrown at different speeds and eye levels. When at his best, Buchholz induces weak contact at will. It has taken a full season for him to harness his command, but his ability to suppress hard contact has been on display all season.

The biggest key for Buchholz will be limiting home runs. In his eight wins, he allowed three home runs in 42.0 innings, good for a 0.64 HR/9. In 10 losses, Buchholz allowed 13 homers in 47.0 innings. Over his past 50.2 innings, the resurgent pitcher has allowed only four home runs.

Buchholz is an enigma, and the Red Sox are betting on him to keep it together in the playoffs, similar to the way the Baltimore Orioles bet on Ubaldo Jimenez to keep it together. In a way, Buchholz and Jimenez are very similar pitchers. Their secondary pitches have remained nasty while their fastball velocity declines. Command is of the utmost importance for both. If Clay Buchhholz is on his game, the Indians will be in for a long night in the pivotal Game 3.

Sep 30, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (34) reacts after hitting a two run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the seventh inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

2. Boston’s offense is out of this world

The Red Sox offense is almost unfair.

Boston has scored 108 more runs than Cleveland, the AL’s second-best offense. Cleveland has scored 100 more runs than TB, its second-worst.

There are at least three players on the team who should receive an MVP vote — Mookie Betts, who will probably win, David Ortiz, and Hanley Ramirez. Jackie Bradley, Jr. typically bats eighth and hit 26 home runs. Sandy Leon, a career replacement-level player, managed to slash .310/.369/.476 in 78 games.

Betts and Ortiz ran roughshod over the entire league with a combined 90 doubles and 69 home runs. Both batted over .315. Betts also stole 26 bases. At the top of the order, Dustin Pedroia was his typically brilliant self, slashing .318/.376/.449.

The biggest key for the Red Sox may have been Hanley Ramirez, who proved that his disappointing 2015 season was not a sign of things to come. The mercurial star looked completely revitalized after being moved back into the infield. Ramirez found his power stroke in the second half, slugging .593 with 22 home runs in 66 games. His presence in the five-hole makes it incredibly difficult to pitch around Betts and Ortiz.

From top to bottom, the Red Sox are impossible to pitch to. They are also a team that makes consistent hard contact and are not dependent on the longball to score like some of the other teams left in the playoffs. This fearsome offense also affords the pitching staff a margin for error and an ability to hunt for contact rather than worry about throwing a strikeout pitch to every batter. The Indians have a great offense in their own right, but they hardly hold a candle to the Red Sox.

Sep 16, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Corey Kluber (28) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

1. The Indians are hurting

This series would have an entirely different dynamic if Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco were both healthy. Unfortunately for the Indians, both are on the shelf with arm injuries. With a severely-depleted rotation, it will be difficult for the Indians to keep the potent Boston lineup in check.

Cleveland does still have Corey Kluber, who will start Game 2. Kluber is one of the best pitchers in the league, and may steal the Cy Young away from Porcello if Britton divides the vote. The 2014 AL Cy Young winner went 18-9 this year with 227 strikeouts. He will be opposed in Game 2 by David Price.

Game 2 is arguably the only game of the series where the Indians will enjoy an advantage in the starting pitching department. Trevor Bauer will take the ball in Game 1, and has been hit-or-miss this season. He was a high draft pick in 2011 who has never put it all together for a full season. Bauer unraveled in September, finishing with a 6.39 ERA in six starts during the final month.

Behind Bauer and Kluber, the Indians will start Josh Tomlin in Game 3. Tomlin is a competent mid-rotation starter, and a team can get by with him during a 162-game schedule that features plenty of games against sub-.500 teams. In a game that could decide the series or swing the momentum entirely in the direction of the Red Sox, he is not the ideal candidate to win a game. Tomlin pitches to contact and has a very low strikeout rate of 6.1 per nine. It will be a battle for him to hold the Red Sox down.

Were Carrasco and Salazar healthy, the Indians may have been considered the favorite in this series. All things considered, the Indians have a lineup that can put up runs and a bullpen that features Andrew Miller, one of the nastiest lefties in the game. It’s just too much of a stretch to ask Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin to shut down Boston twice.