Boston Red Sox

2016 MLB Postseason: Boston Red Sox ALDS Game 3 predictions

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 1:01 a.m. ET

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Will the Boston Red Sox survive elimination in Game 3 of the ALDS? Here are a few predictions heading into this do-or-die postseason game.

Sep 28, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (11) pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Home sweet home. That’s how the players in the Boston Red Sox clubhouse must be feeling as they return to Fenway Park after dropping the first two games of the American League Division Series in Cleveland.

A team that many pegged to make a run at the World Series now finds themselves one loss away from becoming the fourth team in franchise history to be swept it the division series. The Red Sox face long odds considering that in the history of the best-of-five division series, teams are 46-7 after taking the first two games.

The Cleveland Indians are now the heavy favorites to advance to the ALCS to meet a Toronto Blue Jays team that has already swept their way into the next round, but the Red Sox aren’t done yet. Back in their own ballpark, don’t expect this team to go down without a fight. Boston can’t win three times in one game, so as the old expression goes, they must take it one game at a time.

Which puts the focus on tonight’s Game 3. If the Red Sox are to stave off elimination they can’t afford to look ahead, they have to win this game in order for there to be another one tomorrow. What can we expect from this Red Sox team clinging to their postseason lives? Here are a few predictions for Game 3.

Aug 23, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (11) is congratulated by teammates as he was taken out during the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Buchholz pitches well enough to win

A Red Sox team on the brink of elimination hands their fate over to Clay Buchholz to save their season.

A couple of months ago you would have assumed that manager John Farrell must have lost his mind if he was allowing Buchholz anywhere near the mound in a playoff game, let alone start an elimination game. The veteran right-hander had a brutal first half of the season, pitching poorly enough to lose his spot in the rotation – twice.

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A brief move to the bullpen allowed Buchholz to reinvent himself. He ditched his windup and started pitching exclusively out of the stretch, regardless of if runners were on base. The change has allowed him to stay more consistent with his mechanics and he believes this approach has made him quicker to home plate.

It’s hard to argue with the results. When Steven Wright was lost for the season with a shoulder injury the Red Sox were forced to give Buchholz another shot in the rotation. He rewarded the team for that decision by going 3-0 with a 3.14 ERA in five September starts. Buchholz pitched brilliantly in his final three starts, going at least six innings and allowing two runs or less in each outing.

Will this success carry over to the postseason? The last time we saw Buchholz on this stage he was tossing four shutout innings in the 2013 World Series. Prior to that he started the deciding Game 6 of the ALCS, limiting the Detroit Tigers to a pair of runs over five innings. We’ve seen Buchholz step up in big moments before, so why not now?

I’m not expecting a gem from the enigmatic Buchholz. He’ll surely be on a tight leash, so don’t expect him to go deep into this game. However, he should perform just well enough to win, pitching into the sixth inning while allowing only a couple of runs. When he gets himself into a jam in the sixth, that’s when Farrell will come in with the hook, handing the game over to the bullpen to bail him out with the lead intact.

Aug 20, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (34) celebrates with right fielder Mookie Betts (50) during the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

The bats wake up at Fenway

The best lineup in baseball was limited to a total of only four runs through the first two games of this series. The Red Sox have hit a meager .200 with a .673 OPS and have struck out a staggering 22 times. Expect that trend to change now that the series has shifted back to Boston.

The Red Sox averaged an MLB best 5.4 runs per game at home this season, while finishing at or near the top of essentially every significant offensive category. This is an offensive juggernaut that won’t be stymied for long, especially not in this ballpark.

Those dismal numbers the offense has produced in this series have been heavily influenced by being blanked by Corey Kluber in Game 2, but the Red Sox won’t be facing a Cy Young contender this time.

Josh Tomlin finished the season strong in September, but still posted a brutal 5.59 ERA in the second half. His 6.10 K/9 was one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league this season, which a Red Sox team that makes a lot of contact should feast on. Tomlin also gives up a lot of hard contact, as the 36 home runs he surrendered were the second most in the league.

A contact pitcher that has struggled with the long ball coming to a hitter-friendly park to face a powerful lineup that thrives in this environment? Sounds like this could be the opportunity this team needs to spark their offense.

Expect the Red Sox to hang some crooked numbers early, putting up 6+ runs before Cleveland has the chance to counter with the shutdown relievers at the back end of their bullpen.

Sep 24, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (34) singles during the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Big Papi goes yard

You don’t really expect David Ortiz‘s last postseason to end without at least one memorable moment, do you?

The 40-year old slugger is coming off the best season ever produced by a player his age, but so far October has been a dud. Ortiz is 1-for-8 (.125) at the plate in this series and hasn’t driven in a run. His one hit was a hustle double that put him in position to score the tying run, but that run never came home. Which means he’s still due for some postseason magic.

Ortiz enters the day with 17 career postseason home runs, tied with Jim Thome for seventh all-time. Tonight is the night that he breaks that tie.

The postseason record books are littered with Ortiz’s name, but he’ll need to start producing if he hopes to move up any of these lists. He needs one more double to tie Jorge Posada for third all-time, which would also tie him for fourth in total bases. His next hit will also move him up a spot from his current 10th place standing and if the Red Sox can extend this series then it gives Ortiz a reasonable shot at finishing in the top-five on the postseason hit list. He also only needs to drive in two more runs to land in a tie for third place on the postseason RBI list. The records in each of these categories are out of reach, but Ortiz can still rise up the rankings with a few more big hits.

With Boston facing elimination, this could be his last chance. I’m predicting Ortiz helps the Red Sox survive with a couple of hits, including a home run in Game 3.

Aug 1, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel (46) throws against the Seattle Mariners during the ninth inning at Safeco Field. Boston defeated Seattle, 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Kimbrel notches the save… barely

If the Red Sox are going to win Game 3 it won’t be without a fair amount of drama.

Boston’s offense will have given the team a fairly comfortable three-run lead heading into the ninth inning, where Craig Kimbrel will be tasked with locking down the save. Boston’s closer has only faced one batter in this series, so expect him to be used regardless of the score.

Kimbrel struggled through bouts of wildness down the stretch, issuing nine walks in his last nine innings to close out the regular season. While he did rack up seven saves in September, he also lost three of those final nine appearances and surrendered six earned runs.

The five-time All-Star hasn’t quite lived up to the lights out closer reputation he brought with him when the Red Sox acquired him from the San Diego Padres last winter. His 3.40 ERA may be solid by the standards of most pitchers, but it’s nearly a full run higher than the career-high he set a year ago and almost double his career average.

While his postseason resume is limited to a mere seven innings of work, Kimbrel has been brilliant in that small sample. He owns a 1.29 ERA, 0.57 WHIP and 11 strikeouts in those seven appearances, but aside from the one batter he faced in Game 2, Kimbrel hasn’t pitched in the postseason since 2013. He’s not quite as dominant as he was back then, so can we trust him to lock down the save with the season on the line?

He will, but he won’t make it easy. We can probably assume based on his recent track record that he’ll walk a batter. Just to make things interesting, let’s predict that he’ll also give up a frustrating bloop base hit, bringing the tying run to the plate with two outs. After working the count full, Kimbrel will unleash a blazing fastball high and outside that would have been ball four to load the bases had the batter not swung through it. Kimbrel gets the strikeout to end the game, keeping the Red Sox alive for at least one more day.

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