National Football League

Two NFL MVP bets to make now, plus which quarterbacks you should fade

Updated Feb. 17, 2023 1:41 p.m. ET

The 2022 NFL season came to an end last Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl LVII. While Chiefs fans are still basking in the glory, bettors are already looking into next year's future bets.

One popular bet to make in the offseason is the MVP award. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow opened as the favorites to win the award at FOX Bet.

While there is still a long way to go before next season, let's break down a couple of the candidates from a betting perspective.

Here are a couple of guys I'm buying early that are worth a sprinkle and a few big names I'm already staying away from.

BUY

Joe Burrow (+700 at FOX Bet)

Burrow is obviously one of the MVP front-runners, and it’s difficult to ignore his natural ability to put up quality numbers. When healthy, he’s a threat for 5,000 yards and 40 passing touchdowns and I expect him to reach both marks in his third full season. The AFC North should also be better with a healthy Lamar Jackson and an unsuspended Deshaun Watson. Burrow will get even more love if Cincinnati can win another division title.

Russell Wilson (+4500 at FOX Bet)

Wilson may be washed, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt with Sean Payton now calling the offensive shots in Denver. Going from Nathaniel Hackett to Payton is like going from Homer Simpson to a brain surgeon. You must also consider the betting price. Wilson was around 15-1 to win last year’s MVP. Now we can get 45-1? That’s worth a small flier.

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SELL

Aaron Rodgers (+1700 at FOX Bet)

Many of us are tired of the constant Aaron Rodgers offseason drama. All these hostile impasses between him and the Packers have been exhausting and there’s still a chance he’s back in Green Bay, where his touchdown numbers plummeted without Davante Adams. If you think Rodgers relocates to Las Vegas and throws 40 touchdowns, you do you. I’m just not there yet.

Brock Purdy (+2500 at FOX Bet)

Will Purdy’s injured throwing elbow be ready by Week 1? The Niners quarterback told the NFL Network last week that doctors are discussing a hybrid elbow surgery that could keep him out for seven to nine months. If that’s the case, why bet on the uncertainty? Also, one American sportsbook is dealing Trey Lance as a -300 favorite to start the opener, so there’s no point to bet on Purdy at 25-1 for MVP until his timetable for return is clearer.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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