National Basketball Association

Why the 2017 Orlando Magic are projected to win only 36 games

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Oct 5, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Orlando Magic head coach Frank Vogel reacts in the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Although the Orlando Magic got better, there is still a number of things that could go wrong this season, leading to a team projected to stagnate.

The 2017 Orlando Magic is the most intriguing team the organization has fielded in years. Fans are rightfully excited for the start of the season as Frank Vogel and the players are announcing they are ready to fight for the playoffs.

Despite all this intrigue and excitement within the Magic fan base, it is hard to find many people hitching their wagons to the team. Projection after projection seems to have the Magic landing around the same number — a very similar number to last year’s 35-win outfit.

Nylon Calculus recently projected the Magic to win a meager 36 games. That was a similar projection to what ESPN made earlier in the summer. It would seem the Magic are a puzzle that no one is willing to buy into quite yet.

A number of things could go wrong with this team, and one could argue the team was not assembled perfectly, with numerous issues which could arise at any point during the season.

This is why the Magic still have tempered expectations entering the season.

Oct 5, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Orlando Magic center Bismack Biyombo (11) shoots against Cleveland Cavaliers forward Chris Andersen (00) in the second quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

New coach, new system, new lineup

Anytime a new coach is brought to the team, it takes time and patience to introduce the new defensive and offensive schemes to players. This is not a trait reserved for mediocre or bad teams, but rather a league wide occurrence.

The 2011 Miami Heat, with the new additions of LeBron James and Chris Bosh to Dwyane Wade, started the season only 9-9, and that is with a coach who was already with the team for three years in Erik Spoelstra. Why would the Orlando Magic be an exception?

The Magic will effectively have: a new starting power forward (Serge Ibaka), a new veteran forward (Jeff Green), a new coach and a number of other new players.

As Ibaka will most likely take the most shots, this also creates a modification in team roles. Will Nikola Vucevic have issues with the number of touches? What if he gets delegated to the bench? How does he respond to the fact Bismack Biyombo has a bigger salary than him?

What will happen if Jeff Green absorbs most of the small forward minutes over Aaron Gordon? How will shooting guard minutes be distributed when Jodie Meeks comes back?

The players also have to learn how to play together. The Magic had one of the largest roster turnovers in the entire league this offseason.

Uncertainties are bad in the NBA. You want stability, clear roles and as little unknown factors as possible.

A lot of these uncertainties will be answered on the floor, but it will take time until the rotation settles in and Vogel figures out the starting minutes, rotational players minutes and the players who finish the game.

To add to this lack of chemistry, Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka and Elfrid Payton all missed parts of preseason and did not play in any of the preseason games.

Apr 11, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) holds off Milwaukee Bucks guard Rashad Vaughn (20) during the first quarter of a basketball game at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The point guard question

Elfrid Payton is entering his third year as the starting point guard for the Orlando Magic. The NBA is a point guard’s league, and the Magic believe Payton is their franchise point guard.

The position is stacked, and even saturated at this point. Having in mind the competition, the Magic have to begin thinking about Payton’s future and expecting more from him. Payton is in the lower tier of starting point guards in the league.

Payton ranked 34th out of 77 qualifying point guards in PER, tied with Michael Carter-Williams and Donald Sloan. His backup this year, D.J. Augustin, sits just behind in 37th.

Digging deeper, we can see Payton was 68th out of 77th in True Shooting Percentage, with 47.8 percent shooting. To put this in perspective, Rajon Rondo, a notoriously bad shooter, is 54th with 50.6 percent.

Payton’s poor shooting and free-throw shooting remain big concerns and a big part of the improvements he needed to make this summer.

These are simply not the stats of a starting point guard for a playoff team.

He is young and this is only his third season, but the Magic need immediate impact from the point guard position. This is a season for Payton to reward the Magic’s faith in him — especially after the rumors about his disagreements and frustrations with former coach Scott Skiles.

Luckily, his backup, D.J. Augustin is a veteran with a steady handle who can come in and be a solid replacement.

Point guard is by far the weakest position for the Magic. And Payton’s improvement cannot come any faster.

Oct 3, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Orlando Magic guard Mario Hezonja (8) shoots over Memphis Grizzlies forward James Ennis (8) during the first quarter at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Unresolved positional issues

Among other players, the Orlando Magic signed Jeff Green, Bismack Biyombo and Serge Ibaka this offseason. Green should play the small forward position behind Gordon and back up Ibaka some at power forward. Ibaka should start at power forward and Biyombo should play at center behind Nikola Vucevic.

This means Gordon, a player who played 60 percent of his time as a power forward last season, should shift to start at small forward. This means additional time is needed and his performance is likely going to suffer.

New additions also mean the Magic have invested almost $29 million at the center position for the following season. How is Vogel going to spread this enormous investment to benefit the team?

An Ibaka-Biyombo lineup has limited offensive capabilities, and Vucevic is a clear center, so any combinations with him as the power forward are likely to be dismissed by Vogel.

Mario Hezonja, on the other hand, does not have a clear position on the squad. Scott Skiles experimented with Hezonja running the point, but the experiment has not yielded positive results. His true position is shooting guard, but how does Jodie Meeks fit in?

It seems Hezonja has a short window of opportunity until Meeks comes back to seize minutes. That is, unless the Magic are determined to play Hezonja.

Hezonja has to contribute in whatever role he plays with the Magic focused on the postseason already.

The positional issues are not catastrophic. It may provide Vogel with more flexibility to run a number of lineups. But it is clear the team is not perfectly balanced. And it is not clear which players will be able to take the step up necessary.

The Magic face these questions of uncertainty entering their season. How they answer them will determine whether they exceed these preseason expectations.