National Basketball Association

San Antonio Spurs: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:58 p.m. ET

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In the first season of the post-Tim Duncan era, what can we expect of the San Antonio Spurs? Here’s their 2016-17 season preview.

Oct 14, 2016; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs small forward Kawhi Leonard (2) looks on during the first half against the Miami Heat at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

As much as San Antonio Spurs fans will hate to hear this, their favorite team had a lot in common with the Golden State Warriors last season.

They were the two best teams in the Western Conference — and the NBA in general — in 2015-16; they both put together franchise-best regular seasons, racking up 67 and 73 wins respectively; and they both fell short of their championship aspirations in the playoffs.

As the 2016-17 campaign begins, the Dubs may have gotten even stronger by adding Kevin Durant. The Spurs? Well, with Tim Duncan retiring, several key bench players on the way out and Pau Gasol signing on, San Antonio is truly entering into new and unfamiliar territory.

The Spurs have been Kawhi Leonard‘s team for awhile now, but Duncan’s on-court leadership won’t be around anymore. Boris Diaw‘s plus-sized versatility is gone, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili just got another year older, and the bench has questions to answer after being unplayable in the postseason.

Still, the Spurs have proven time and time again that doubting them is a fool’s errand. Leonard is already a franchise star, LaMarcus Aldridge is a dynamic second fiddle and during the regular season, Gregg Popovich only knows one way of life — winning games no matter who is on the floor.

Heading into the first season of the post-Duncan era, what can we expect from the Spurs? Here’s a look at San Antonio’s 2016-17 season preview and predictions.

2015-16 Vitals

67-15, 1st in Southwest Division, 2nd in Western Conference
103.5 PPG (Rank)/92.9 OPP PPG (1st)
110.3 Offensive Rating (4th)/99.0 Defensive Rating (1st)

Team Leaders
Scoring: Kawhi Leonard, 21.2 PPG
Rebounding: LaMarcus Aldridge, 8.5 RPG
Assists: Tony Parker, 5.3 APG
Steals: Kawhi Leonard, 1.8 SPG
Blocks: Tim Duncan, 1.3 BPG

Honors
Defensive Player of the Year Award: Kawhi Leonard
Executive of the Year Award: R.C. Buford
All-NBA First Team: Kawhi Leonard
All-NBA Third Team: LaMarcus Aldridge
NBA All-Defensive First Team: Kawhi Leonard

Oct 12, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; San Antonio Spurs center Pau Gasol (16) looks on against the Orlando Magic during the first quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Roster

LaMarcus Aldridge, PF
Kyle Anderson, SF
Joel Anthony, C
Ryan Arcidiacono, PG
Davis Bertans, SF
Dewayne Dedmon, C
Bryn Forbes, SG
Patricio Garino, SG
Pau Gasol, C
Manu Ginobili, SG
Danny Green, SG
Livio Jean-Charles, SF
Nicolas Laprovittola, PG
David Lee, PF
Kawhi Leonard, SF
Patty Mills, PG
Dejounte Muray, PG
Tony Parker, PG
Jonathon Simmons, SG

Offseason Additions
Joel Anthony (free agency, Detroit Pistons), Ryan Arcidiacono (free agency, undrafted), Davis Bertans (free agency, Laborai Kutxa Baskonia {Spain}), Dewayne Dedmon (free agency, Orlando Magic), Bryn Forbes (free agency, undrafted), Patricio Garino (free agency, undrafted), Pau Gasol (free agency, Chicago Bulls), Livio Jean-Charles (free agency, ASVEL {France}), Nicolas Laprovittola (free agency, CB Estudiantes {Spain}), David Lee (free agency, Dallas Mavericks), Dejounte Murray (29th overall draft pick, Washington)

Offseason Subtractions
Matt Bonner (free agency, unsigned), Boris Diaw (trade, Utah Jazz), Tim Duncan (retirement), Boban Marjanovic (free agency, Detroit Pistons), Kevin Martin (free agency, unsigned), Andre Miller (free agency, unsigned), David West (free agency, Golden State Warriors)

Quick Thoughts

The biggest change for San Antonio’s roster is obviously the swap from Tim Duncan to newcomer Pau Gasol at center. Unfortunately, for all Gasol’s scoring, rebounding and passing ability, this is a downgrade on the defensive end, and one that cost the Spurs their Swiss army knife in Boris Diaw.

Speaking of which, San Antonio shed a considerable amount of bench depth this offseason. Diaw was dealt to Utah to make room for Gasol, David West migrated to the Bay Area in his pursuit of a ring, Boban Marjanovic earned his payday with the Pistons (at Pop’s urging, no less), and Matt Bonner, Kevin Martin and Andre Miller all remain unsigned free agents.

None of these losses will prevent the Spurs from racking up their usual 50-60 wins this season, but newcomers like Dewayne Dedmon, David Lee, rookie Dejounte Murray and even Gasol will have their work cut out for them to fill some pretty big shoes.

Murray could be San Antonio’s long-term solution at the point guard spot, and the Spurs would like to see some progress out of Kyle Anderson in Year 3, but neither one is likely to be a regular contributor off the bench.

Aside from Gasol, the Spurs will remain dependent on Leonard, Aldridge, Parker, Ginobili and, hopefully, Danny Green’s bounce-back season, especially when the postseason rolls around. With all that bench depth coming off the books, San Antonio may have to ride its core come playoff time.

Oct 12, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) looks on against the Orlando Magic during the second quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. Is This Aldridge Thing Working?

It was no coincidence the Spurs won a franchise-record 67 games after adding LaMarcus Aldridge in free agency. He and Leonard were a brutal 1-2 punch on the offensive end, and though his numbers dipped to 18.0 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, it’s hard for anyone to put up big numbers in a Spurs system that emphasizes team play and rest.

According to multiple sources, however, this whole San Antonio-LaMarcus Aldridge union isn’t quite working out as planned.

ESPN’s Zach Lowe speculated Aldridge’s name would crop up in trade rumors this season in his annual crazy predictions piece, and though those are just bold forecasts, ESPN’s Jackie Macmullan and the San Antonio News-Express validated his hunch with reports that the union was not going according to plan.

On the surface, it makes very little sense for either side to consider a trade. Aldridge is as close to a title as he’s ever been in his career, and though the Spurs fell well short of their championship aspirations last year, you don’t just walk away from a 67-win team.

However, Aldridge left Portland because of a similar situation that everyone knew was coming in San Antonio: There’s a younger, more talented player who threatens to reduce LA’s role to second fiddle.

No one — Aldridge especially — should be surprised by this. Everyone knew Leonard was the next franchise cornerstone in San Antonio, and since he’s six years younger, he’s obviously more valuable. But sacrificing was easy when the Spurs steamrolled their way to 67 wins. When they bowed out in the second round, perhaps Aldridge’s lesser role gave way to a little resentment.

This is all speculation of course, and both Aldridge and the Spurs have denied there’s anything going on here. But Aldridge only has two more guaranteed years on his contract, and if San Antonio is unable to prove they can compete with the Warriors early on, the front office may recognize the need to capitalize on his trade value while it’s still high.

Mar 10, 2016; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs power forward Tim Duncan (21) shoots the ball over Chicago Bulls center Pau Gasol (16) during the first half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. San Antonio No Longer Runs On Duncan

How the Spurs approach their Aldridge situation might depend on how effectively Pau Gasol replaces the greatest player in franchise history. The day of retirement has finally arrived, and San Antonio no longer runs on Duncan.

With Timmy manning the middle and Leonard and Green wreaking havoc on the perimeter, the Spurs fielded a historically stingy defense last season, holding opponents to a league-best 96.6 points per 100 possessions.

Leonard is a smart bet to win his third consecutive Defensive Player of the Year Award this season, but Duncan is gone now, and in his place is a definitive downgrade at the center spot.

To be fair, Gasol averaged 16.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game last season on .469/.348/.792 shooting splits. He averaged more blocks per game than Duncan did, he’s a regular double-double, and the perimeter shooting and passing skills he brings to the table should be perfect fits for what was already a top-five offense.

However, for all his length and blocked shots on defense, he’s not the greatest positional defender, and his discomfort on that end grows with each step he takes away from the basket. Even in Duncan’s age-39 season, he was a better defender than Gasol, and Pau isn’t far behind in age at 36.

So far this preseason, the Spurs lead all teams in defensive rating, which should be no surprise given how much Pop extracts from whatever five players he throws out on the court. The question is, will the Gasol addition make up for San Antonio’s lost depth and Duncan’s absence on the defensive end? Or are the Spurs about to regress to a much lower tier than the Warriors out West?

Apr 10, 2016; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Kevin Martin (23) is defended by San Antonio Spurs small forward Kawhi Leonard (2) during the first half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. Do The Spurs Match Up With The Warriors?

The Spurs are still a safe bet to finish with the second or third-best record in the West, but they might not be in the same class as the Warriors anymore.

Coming off that eye-opening second round defeat, the Spurs no longer have to worry about an uber-athletic Thunder team making them look bad in the playoffs. But the player on those OKC teams who tormented them time and time again just joined the 73-win Warriors, making San Antonio’s path to championship No. 6 that much more of an uphill climb.

Like it or not, the last two postseasons have revealed a few flaws with these Spurs teams. Namely, they’re old, they’re not as athletic and all their depth shrivels up when the playoffs roll around and rotations shorten up.

Kawhi Leonard is a Finals MVP, an all-encompassing terror on the defensive end and the first player since Tony Parker in 2012-13 to average at least 20 points per game within the Spurs’ balanced offense. However, since being handed the full reins, Leonard hasn’t quite shown that he’s capable of taking over playoff games — yet.

In 2015, he struggled with the offensive burden after a strong start in San Antonio’s seven-game loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. He averaged just 14.3 points per game on 13-of-44 shooting (29.5 percent) over the last three games, two of which were losses. That was only his first playoff series as the team’s alpha, so his failure to step up in the clutch was understandable.

spurs

PistonPowered 1 dShould the Pistons try to trade for LaMarcus Aldridge?

More headlines around FanSided:

1 d - Don’t Believe The Hype: LaMarcus Aldridge Is Not On The Trading Block1 d - Leonard, Aldridge mentioned on annual NBA GM survey1 d - NBA Trade Rumors: Where Might LaMarcus Aldridge Land?1 d - San Antonio Spurs: Could The Spurs Challenge The Warriors Out West?2d - Wojnarowski speculates the Spurs will chase Chris PaulMore News at Air Alamo

Last year, however, the MVP runner-up once again fell short, putting up 22 points on 23 shots in the decisive Game 6 defeat against the Thunder and struggling to 21 points on 19 shots in a pivotal Game 4 loss that tied the series. Leonard was San Antonio’s best player in that second round upset, but he was unable to take over for his team and prevent three straight losses when it mattered most.

That’s not a knock on Kawhi by any means; at age 25, it’s only natural to go through some growing pains in the playoffs, especially now that he’s taken control of the team. But can we really say Leonard is ready to lead this thinner Spurs team to an upset over a new Warriors juggernaut?

Unfortunately for San Antonio, even if Leonard is ready, he may not have enough help around him to do so. Though Popovich squeezes wins out of his bench with ease during the regular season, that story changed once the postseason rolled around and lineups got shorter.

The Spurs’ bench is thinner than last year and remains unproven, Parker and Ginobili are as ineffective driving the lane as they’ve ever been, and the defense could be ready to take a step backward. With Aldridge rumors already swirling, Zach Lowe may have described it best when he said this season could turn into a “placeholder” year for this perennially great franchise.

A placeholder year for the Spurs could very well lead to the conference finals, which is what separates San Antonio from 90 percent of the league. But with the Warriors as powerful as ever and the Spurs showing a few signs of weakness, championship expectations may prove to be unrealistic in 2016-17.

Oct 8, 2016; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs point guard Tony Parker (9) shoots the ball past Atlanta Hawks guard Malcolm Delaney (5) during the second half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Best-Case Scenario

Between Popovich’s brilliant mind and the Spurs’ sound defensive schemes, the switch from Duncan to Gasol at center goes over without a hiccup and San Antonio once again boasts an elite defense. The Aldridge trade rumors also die down as the Spurs do what they do best: rack up regular season Ws.

More from Hoops Habit

Kawhi Leonard improves his career-best numbers from last season, and with the MVP race so wide open, wins his first Most Valuable Player Award. Pop once again extracts the utmost potential from his bench, helping rest his team’s core players and keep them fresh for the postseason.

As the Warriors struggle with their depth and chemistry, the Spurs breeze their way to around 62 wins and the top seed in the West. Home-court advantage gives them the edge in the conference finals against the Dubs, and they use it to their advantage, upsetting Golden State to make it to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2014.

They face the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers in the Finals, besting LeBron James and company in a high-powered showdown between Kawhi and the King. Aldridge and Gasol decide to run it back for another year, putting San Antonio in great position to repeat despite Golden State’s addition of KD.

Worst-Case Scenario

The rumors of Aldridge’s discontent grow louder with Kawhi Leonard putting together another career year, and as the Warriors distance themselves from San Antonio and the rest of the league in the standings, it grows harder for LA to tolerate playing second fiddle once again.

The Spurs’ bench, which led the league in plus/minus last season, takes a noticeable step back in 2016-17, as do Parker and Ginobili with their athleticism waning. Gasol puts up solid numbers, but this once mighty defense suffers with him manning the middle alongside Aldridge.

As the gap between the Warriors and Spurs widens, San Antonio accepts that a championship is unrealistic. They trade Aldridge for a package that includes an eventual successor to Parker at point guard, a direct replacement at the 4, or a collection of young players and future draft picks in a rebuilding move. San Antonio finishes third or fourth in the West, advancing to the second round before being knocked out.

Oct 10, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard (2) looks on after scoring during the first period of the game against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Leon Halip-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions

The Spurs-Aldridge pairing hasn’t worked out as planned thus far, but San Antonio would only consider trading him if they feel they’re nowhere near as good as the juggernaut Warriors. Given the way this franchise regularly cranks out wins, that seems unlikely to happen.

San Antonio’s defense won’t be so otherworldly in 2016-17, but what Gasol brings on the offensive end should help make up for it. This team will still be a top-10 defensive unit, and their offense will be borderline unstoppable with Gasol’s scoring, rebounding and passing thrown into the mix.

Leonard won’t win MVP, but he’ll bring home yet another Defensive Player of the Year Award while also hiking up his scoring numbers a bit. Aldridge won’t be traded, accepting his role on a Spurs team that gives him plenty of quality looks and finishes third in the Western Conference standings with 56 wins.

San Antonio returns to the conference finals after besting a tough Clippers team in the second round, but they lose to a superior Warriors team that just has too much firepower. The Spurs then face some tough decisions regarding Aldridge’s future and Gasol’s free agency if he opts out.

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