National Basketball Association

Does Russell Westbrook make the Lakers title favorites once again?

Published Jul. 30, 2021 12:52 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Los Angeles Lakers got their coveted third star, Russell Westbrook.

Sure, he’s turning 33 in November. And he’s going to his fourth team in four years. And he hasn’t shot above 32 percent on 3-pointers since 2017. But the Lakers have their third star.

So … how should you approach betting the Lakers next season?

Before we start, you need to know about the Lakers "tax." Their lines are inflated nightly because of the brand name and because of LeBron James, so they’re usually a team that you want to fade, not buy.

Last season, for example, the Lakers were 34-44-1 against the spread (43%) including the playoffs, which was 28th in the NBA. Even the year prior, when they won the title, they only finished 11th in the NBA against the spread (47-43-2, 52%).

But there could be good news following the Westbrook move (or maybe you want to call this "hope").

Westbrook, who tries harder than anyone else in the NBA during the regular season, has shown he can carry a team in the regular season. He had a six-week stretch for the Wizards in which he averaged 23 points, 14 rebounds, and 13 assists and carried Washington to the playoffs.

The trade allows the Lakers to give Anthony Davis and LeBron random nights off in the dog days of January and February to keep them fresh for the playoffs; I would suspect they play in the neighborhood of 65 games out of 82 in the regular season. Meanwhile, Westbrook can thrive, and you can win money betting on him and the Lakers in the regular season (and even to win the Western Conference).

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But the bad news is when you get to the postseason. Westbrook is not a shooter, and opponents do not respect him from the perimeter. Here’s how he’s shot on 3-pointers in his past six playoff series:

vs. Houston, 2017: 25%
vs. Utah, 2018: 35%
vs. Portland, 2019: 32%
vs. OKC, 2020: 16%
vs. LAL, 2020: 25%
vs. Philadelphia, 2021: 25%

And this is not just a Westbrook issue. As the Lakers roster looks now, they’re not one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA … they’re rock bottom. Their returning leading 3-point shooter? LeBron James, with 104 made 3s. That ranked him 94th in the NBA last season. In a 3-point shooting league, that’s bad news all around.

What will be most telling about the Lakers is whether they can play Westbrook, LeBron and Anthony Davis late in games together. That’s three non-shooters. Then the question becomes, how will Westbrook handle not being on the court? Because you know LeBron and AD will be.

Let’s see how the Lakers address matters in free agency, which begins Wednesday. They have a $5.9 million midlevel exception to find a shooter (Wayne Ellington? Patty Mills? JJ Redick?) and their final trade chip is Dennis Schroder in a sign-and-trade. Let’s not rule out the possibility of Buddy Hield getting to the Lakers.

Assuming free agency will help sort some of this out, one final thought is that betting on the Lakers is also about the opponents. The Clippers won’t have Kawhi Leonard for most of the regular season. Ditto the Nuggets and Jamal Murray. The Suns are coming off a long postseason run into mid-July. There are reports of changes coming to the top-seeded Jazz in free agency.

The Lakers, assuming they are healthy, are a very good bet to be one of the best teams in the West, and get to the NBA Finals. Following the trade, they're +175 to win the conference at FOX Bet, meaning a $10 bet would earn you $27.50 total.

I just can’t put them ahead of the Nets right now to win it all, and neither can the sportsbooks.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.