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Realistic expectations for Detroit Pistons' Stanley Johnson

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Jan 23, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Stanley Johnson (3) shoots the ball during the second half against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. The Nuggets won 104-101. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

The Detroit Pistons’ coaching staff and fan base have high expectations for Stanley Johnson this season. What can we realistically expect from the second year player?

Stanley Johnson is one of two players head coach Stan Van Gundy highlighted this offseason who can make the biggest leap in play for the Detroit Pistons. (The other being Andre Drummond).

Sure Johnson was an obvious choice since he’s entering just his second season in the NBA, but the talent level and flashes Johnson displayed a season ago lead many to think that Johnson is in for a big season.

That said, a “big season” can mean many different things and can be unique to a certain player.

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As a rookie, Johnson averaged 8.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and almost one steal (0.8). Those numbers were accrued in 23.1 minutes per game in 73 games played.

Johnson’s roll as a rookie last season was primarily as the sixth or seventh man in the rotation, starting just six games in lieu of an injury to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Johnson’s numbers aren’t eye opening, but the stats don’t tell the whole story.

Johnson really took off when he was thrust into the starting role at shooting guard.

During that six game stretch, Johnson averaged 15.2 points (45 percent from the field and 42.8 percent from three) and it looked like the game was starting to slow down for him.

Not long after that, Johnson injured his shoulder which caused the rookie to miss multiple games. Not only that, but Johnson’s play fizzled off for most of the season as he dealt with a nagging shoulder injury and sporadic minutes, before he got his groove back in the playoffs, where he played as well, if not better, than his pre-injury self.

Apr 12, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Stanley Johnson (3) stands on the first row of seats during the fourth quarter against the Miami Heat at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Heat win 99-93. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

At 6’7″ and 245 lbs there is a lot to like about Johnson going into year two. He’s also a tremendous competitor and he puts in ample time on the court during the offseason. All of that leads me to believe he’s going to make a marketable jump in play this season, but the statistical impact he has could be hampered based on the role his has with the team.

Van Gundy might consider an open competition for small forward duties. In fact, given that Van Gundy encourages competition it really wouldn’t shock me if that was the case, but it would take a lot for Johnson to overtake Marcus Morris at small forward.

That leaves Johnson on bench duties, where he figures to get the most minutes of any non-starter.

Coming off the bench might not be so bad for Johnson statistically.

In theory, he will be playing against lesser competition more often (though he figures to be guarding the opposing team’s top perimeter scorer, and he most certainly will see substantial action with and against various starters throughout the season), and his role should be that of facilitator/scorer, where he figures to be the top option.

Projecting stats are near impossible, but in this type of role, Johnson could average around 30 minutes per game this season. With 30 minutes a night and improved efficiency, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Johnson put up around 15 points per game, seven rebounds, two assists, and a little over a steal per game.

That would be a “big season” for Johnson by my estimation and likely a little optimistic.

I think if Johnson can improve his efficiency on offense to 45 percent, and improve from “promising defender” to “above average,” we can consider it a “big season” for Johnson.

If he can do that, 13-15 points and 6-8 rebounds per game is certainly attainable.

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