Phoenix Suns: 5 Areas For Improvement
With the Phoenix Suns off to a rough start in 2016-17, here’s a look at five areas for improvement that head coach Earl Watson should address.
Nov 23, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Phoenix Suns head coach Earl Watson (L) talks to guard Eric Bledsoe (2) during the first quarter against the Orlando Magic at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Coming off a hard-fought two-point win against the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday, the Phoenix Suns still sit at 13th in the Western Conference, thanks to a paltry 6-13 record.
Rookie head coach Earl Watson has talent, but so far the Suns are struggling to put it all together, much like they have ever since that unexpected 48-win season in 2013-14.
About one-fourth of the way into the 2016-17 NBA season, we’ve learned plenty about the Suns. In an obvious, ongoing rebuild, nobody was expecting much from Phoenix this year, and so far they’ve lived up to those not-so-lofty expectations with a defense and an offense ranking in the bottom third of the league.
However, that’s not to say that the Suns should call it a season and accept their ceiling. If Phoenix ever wants to recapture the glory and playoff success of the old Steve Nash days, they — and their new head coach — will need to be better, and it starts right here, in a likely “lost” season.
As the Phoenix Suns continue to develop their youth, here are five areas for improvement and possible adjustments that need to be made.
Nov 23, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Phoenix Suns center Alex Len (21) guards during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game against the Orlando Magic at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
5. Start Alex Len
Has Alex Len earned a starting job to this point in his career? Probably not. Is he even a starting-caliber NBA center right now? It’s hard to tell, but that’s exactly the point: The Suns need to figure out what they have in their fourth-year center before he enters restricted free agency this summer.
With Phoenix sitting at 6-13, there’s very little reason to be starting Tyson Chandler, even on the nights when Len winds up earning more minutes off the bench. The 23-year-old seven-footer has looked great at times, but outright inexperienced at others.
A little more consistency as a starter would either do wonders for his skill set and confidence, or it’d let the front office know that the center position is still a position of need.
That statement probably depends on the development of Marquese Chriss and especially Dragan Bender, but with the Suns putting Chriss at the 4 and insistent on playing Bender out of position at the 3 for now, the 2016-17 season is Len’s best chance to prove his worth to this team and any other prospective free agency suitors.
Currently averaging 8.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in 23.8 minutes per game on 49.2 percent shooting, Len is never going to get his chance to fully blossom until he’s battling starting-caliber centers every night. His minutes need to be up, his field goal percentage needs to be up, his output needs to be up — all of it needs to be up, if he’s to prove himself as the franchise’s long-term solution at the 5.
But in the beginning of his fourth season, we still only have a raw sketch of what Len’s potential looks like. The Suns’ defense has been 1.4 points per 100 possessions stingier with Alex Len off the court, compared to 0.7 points per 100 possessions stingier with Tyson Chandler off it, but the point of this season was never about wins and losses, even before the team’s 6-13 start.
When Chandler first left the team for the death of his mother and missed four games, Len played admirably in his stead. In the seven-game span since Len filled in for Chandler, the Ukrainian has put up starting-caliber numbers:
Last 7 games for Alex Len:
27.8 MPG, 9.1 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 56.8 FG%#Suns
— Gerald Bourguet (@GeraldBourguet) December 1, 2016
Is Alex Len the guy who racked up double-doubles at the end of last season and put up 16 points, 14 rebounds and one block in an early November game against Andre Drummond‘s Pistons? Or is he the guy who started the first few weeks of the season shooting around 40 percent from the field?
Can he anchor a decent defense and knock down the occasional midrange jumper? Or is he the guy who will continue to struggle with his confidence and miss every running hook shot he ever takes? The answer is probably somewhere in between, but it’s Phoenix’s responsibility to find out this year with the clock ticking down toward his free agency. Just start him already.
Nov 25, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Brandon Knight (11) celebrates a second quarter three pointer against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
4. Three-Point Shooting
Despite Mike D’Antoni and the Seven Seconds Or Less Suns setting the course for the Golden State Warriors’ small-ball revolution and this ongoing pace and space era, this current Suns group couldn’t be further out-of-date.
The irony of the forefathers of small-ball moving away from three-point shooting hasn’t been lost on everyone, especially with the Suns ranking 25th in three-point attempts (22.6 per game), 28th in three-point makes (7.5 per game) and 26th in three-point percentage (33 percent).
For a team that plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, you’d think the Suns would be running and gunning like the Steve Nash teams of old. Unfortunately, a whopping 74.5 percent of Phoenix’s field goal attempts are two-pointers, the fourth highest mark in the NBA.
Devin Booker‘s rough start from deep undoubtedly plays a factor in all of this, as does Watson’s refusal to actually install an offense (more on this later). But whether it’s the quality of long range looks or just actually putting the ball in the hole, the Suns’ miserable three-point shooting is a major area for improvement.
Nov 21, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Eric Bledsoe (2) dribbles up the court as Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) defends during the third quarter at Verizon Center. Washington Wizards defeated Phoenix Suns 106-101. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
3. Installing An Offense For Better Distribution
If it weren’t for the individual scoring abilities of guys like T.J. Warren, Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, the Suns’ offense would probably be in contention for the title of worst in the league.
But the problem with the Suns’ 23rd-ranked offense (100.7 points per 100 possessions) is not a lack of talent; it’s a lack of purpose, execution and distribution. With Watson leaving his players to figure things independent of an actual set offense, it’s not surprising a Suns offense the relies so heavily on four score-first players suffers from very little playmaking.
Despite Bledsoe, Booker, Warren and Knight all being gifted scorers, the Suns rank 29th in assists (18.3 per game), 30th in assist percentage (46.6 percent) and 30th in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.13).
A more in-depth look at how the Suns are getting their points shows the problems extend far beyond simple assist numbers.
On the Warriors — a team the Suns aspire to be imitate one day down the road that is also renowned for their exemplary ball movement, execution and potent offense — their lowest percentage of assisted two-point field goals belongs to Stephen Curry, at 49.4 percent.
Even if we exclude John Jenkins and Derrick Jones Jr., the Suns still have seven players on their roster being assisted at a lower rate on two-point field goals than Curry’s 49.4 percent mark, including Booker, Knight and Bledsoe (and Warren barely tops Curry at 50.6 percent).
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In other words, the Warriors player who receives the least amount of help in his offense still gets more help from his teammates almost all four of the Suns players taking the most shots for Phoenix. Golden State sets the bar pretty high for well-balanced distribution and high-powered offense, but that’s still a pretty ugly picture.
Curry is typically thought of as a dynamic one-on-one scorer, but his offense is still mostly engineered through good ball movement. The Suns don’t possess a player like Curry, Kevin Durant or Klay Thompson, yet they’ve still been heavily dependent upon isos and an offense largely devoid of structure.
More than half of Phoenix’s field goals come from contested two-pointers, per NBA.com, yet the team is only shooting 34 percent on uncontested threes.
They might be scoring 106.2 points per game, but the Suns are no elite offense. They’re a fast-paced offense, but it’s really just pure chaos that relies on individual shot-making over anything else. If Phoenix is to take the next step in its ongoing rebuild, the guards need to build a better rapport in their ball movement, and Watson needs to install an offense of some kind.
Nov 9, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Dragan Bender (35) against the Detroit Pistons at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2. More Minutes For The Rookies
Watson has been a little bit better about this of late, starting Marquese Chriss over Jared Dudley at the 4 as early as the ninth game of the season and feeding Dragan Bender 11.5 minutes per game over the Suns’ last four contests.
But Bender’s recent uptick in minutes only looks so good because any increase from “DNP-CD” is an improvement, and it’s probably only happening because T.J. Warren is currently sidelined with a “minor head injury.” Chriss is still only averaging 15.2 minutes per game as the starter, while Tyler Ulis has been limited to 11.3 minutes per game as well.
To be fair to Watson, he’s trying to prove that he can be a good coach, not just a babysitter until the Suns’ youth has developed to the point of being playoff-competitive again.
But 19 games into the season, it’s pretty clear Phoenix isn’t at that point yet, so how much longer will the Suns have to endure significant minutes going to aging veterans like Tyson Chandler, P.J. Tucker, Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa?
No one’s saying the rooks should be playing 30-40 minutes a night in an obvious tank attempt, but they also shouldn’t be restricted to bench/mop-up duty on the nights when the veterans are resting or out injured. As the future cornerstones of the franchise, a trial by fire might benefit everyone in the long run.
So far this season, the rookies have struggled. Bender, the No. 4 pick in this year’s draft, is averaging just 2.7 points and 1.3 rebounds in 10.2 minutes per game on .375/.348/.000 shooting splits. Chriss, the No. 8 pick, is at 6.0 points and 2.8 rebounds per game on .433/.296/.517 shooting, and Ulis has posted 3.7 points and 1.8 assists per game on .400/.000/.900 shooting.
This is unacceptable for a rebuilding franchise, especially when Bender comes out with a 10-point, 4-for-5 shooting debut, when Chriss shows such potential with his athleticism, or when Tyler Ulis provides some much-needed defensive energy off the bench.
There’s a reason they’re called “growing pains” rather than “growing pleasures,” and Suns fans would likely be discouraged by the results if Bender, Chriss and Ulis were to get more substantial playing time.
But if the goal in Phoenix is to truly build a new culture and establish a winning mentality for the future, it starts with giving more minutes to the guys who will actually be here down the road to help shape it.
November 13, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) against Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) during the first quarter at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Suns 133-120. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
1. Get Devin Booker Better Looks
Averaging a team-leading 19.1 points per game, Devin Booker’s role as this team’s offensive cornerstone was never in doubt. He’s the future of the franchise and at just 20 years old, what he’s accomplished is already in rarified air.
However, his 41.5 percent shooting from the field and 34.1 percent shooting from three-point range have left much to be desired, prompting early talk of the dreaded sophomore slump. It’s way too premature to be jumping to those conclusions though, especially given what we’ve seen from Booker so far.
There was his then career-high 38 points in a win over the New Orleans Pelicans, including the game-tying step-back jumper to force overtime. Then there was his career-high 39-point performance the following game in Los Angeles. He’s already reached the 30-point threshold four times in 19 games this season, putting him in some pretty elite company:
Since 04-05, @DevinBook (9), Blake Griffin (15), Kyrie Irving (11), Stephen Curry (9) are only players w/ 9+ 30-pt games in their first 90
— Phoenix Suns Stats (@SunsBballComm) November 22, 2016
That being said, between Booker’s work-in-progress defense, his low assist numbers and his underwhelming shooting percentages, is it fair to wonder if we jumped aboard the hype train a little too soon?
Pump the brakes on that notion. Though Booker’s shooting numbers aren’t where we thought they’d be, since battling through that early turf toe injury, Booker is averaging 20.2 points per game on more respectable .421/.366/.869 shooting splits.
Though he’s only averaging 2.6 assists to 2.4 turnovers per game, that’s a byproduct of playing on a crappy team that averages very few assists within an offense that doesn’t really run plays. His basketball IQ, willingness to move the ball and ability to operate out of the pick-and-roll while making the smart pass shouldn’t be overlooked.
Booker has also worked harder on defense, and as The Arizona Republic’s Paul Coro pointed out, the 20-year-old phenom’s effort is improving on that end of the floor. Keep in mind, the kid isn’t even able to legally purchase alcohol yet.
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One thing that might help turn around the early perception that Booker is heading for a sophomore slump would be Watson designing more plays for him, especially in catch-and-shoot scenarios like Golden State does for Klay Thompson.
Booker and Thompson are very different players, but Booker could be a similarly effective spot-up shooter if the Suns would run more sets to free him up, as they tried to do a few times against the Atlanta Hawks Wednesday.
According to NBA.com, 80 percent of Booker’s three-point field goals have been assisted. Only Bledsoe and Knight have a lower percentage among Suns players who actually take threes. Compare that to a sharpshooter like Thompson, whose three-pointers have a 100 percent assist rate, and it starts to become clear Phoenix needs to do more to try and free up their star scorer.
Not enough evidence for you yet? Just take a look at how Thompson and Booker compare on catch-and-shoot opportunities:
In addition to getting more than double the amount of catch-and-shoot looks that Booker gets, catch-and-shoot threes comprise 40 percent of Thompson’s shot selection, compared to just 20.1 percent for Booker.
The Suns are hoping that Booker will develop the other areas of his game the way that Thompson struggled to do through his first few seasons in the league, so he doesn’t need to be an exclusive catch-and-shoot threat the way Thompson was early in his career.
That being said, the kid is 20 years old. Watson having Booker go into iso-mode 18.5 percent of the time — ranking him 11th among all players in the NBA — is not setting him up for success, even if he is shooting 47.8 percent on such plays and ranks in the 75th percentile.
Booker has shown elements of players whose film he studies like Kobe Bryant, Klay Thompson and Ray Allen, so his skillfulness in iso-sets and post-ups on the block is promising. But since he’s still so young, maybe freeing him up for easier catch-and-shoot opportunities would be better than just feeding him the rock and letting him go to work one-on-one so often?
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