National Basketball Association

New Orleans Pelicans: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 5:40 p.m. ET

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As the New Orleans Pelicans look to assemble a contender around Anthony Davis, here’s what to expect from them in 2016-17.

Feb 21, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) celebrates with teammate guard Jrue Holiday (11) after making a three point shot during the fourth quarter. Davis scored 59 point at The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pelicans defeated the Pistons 111-106. Mandatory Credit: Leon Halip-USA TODAY Sports

No one will mistake the New Orleans Pelicans for a title contender this season, but make no mistake about it: The 2016-17 campaign represents the first baby steps toward competing for championships down the road.

The question is, did the Pellies do enough over the summer to take those steps forward, or is this franchise just stuck on a treadmill?

With a superstar like Anthony Davis locked in for at least the next four seasons, the Pelicans have a foundation to build upon. They can confidently say they already have a guy who could be the best player on an NBA championship team.

But that also means the clock is ticking. Title windows don’t remain open forever — just ask the Oklahoma City Thunder — and how the Pelicans go about building around their MVP-in-the-making could mean all the difference in the world between winning a title and watching the Brow leave in free agency in 2020.

Again, that’s a long ways away, but coming off a disappointing season of regression and injury in the team’s first season under head coach Alvin Gentry, there’s a slight sense of anxiety in NOLA.

Can the Pellies return to the playoffs in 2017? Did they do enough to surround Davis with talent? Will Gentry fix the league’s third-worst defense? And perhaps most important of all, can the Brow and the rest of the roster stay healthy for once?

2015-16 Vitals

30-52, 5th in Southwest Division, 12th in Western Conference
102.7 PPG (13th)/106.5 OPP PPG (26th)
105.6 Offensive Rating (18th)/109.5 Defensive Rating (27th)

Team Leaders
Scoring: Anthony Davis, 24.3 PPG
Rebounding: Anthony Davis, 10.3 RPG
Assists: Tyreke Evans, 6.6 APG
Steals: Jrue Holiday, 1.4 SPG
Blocks: Anthony Davis, 2.0 BPG

Honors
N/A

Jan 21, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans associate coach Darren Erman talks with forward Anthony Davis (23) and guard Tyreke Evans (1) during the first quarter of a game against the Detroit Pistons at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Roster

Alexis Ajinca, C
Omer Asik, C
Chris Copeland, PF
Dante Cunningham, PF
Anthony Davis, PF
Shawn Dawson, SG
Cheick Diallo, PF
Tyreke Evans, SG
Tim Frazier, PG
Langston Galloway, SG
Alonzo Gee, SF
Buddy Hield, SG
Solomon Hill, SF
Jrue Holiday, PG
Terrence Jones, PF
E’Twaun Moore, SG
Quincy Pondexter, SF
Robert Sacre, C
Lance Stephenson, SG

Offseason Additions
Chris Copeland (free agency, Milwaukee Bucks), Shawn Dawson (free agency, Maccabi Rishon LeZion {Israel}), Cheick Diallo (No. 33 overall draft pick, Kansas), Langston Galloway (free agency, New York Knicks), Buddy Hield (No. 6 overall draft pick, Oklahoma), Solomon Hill (free agency, Indiana Pacers), Terrence Jones (free agency, Houston Rockets), E’Twaun Moore (free agency, Chicago Bulls), Robert Sacre (free agency, Los Angeles Lakers), Lance Stephenson (free agency, Memphis Grizzlies)

Offseason Subtractions
Ryan Anderson (free agency, Houston Rockets), Luke Babbitt (free agency, Miami Heat), Norris Cole (free agency, unsigned), Bryce Dejean-Jones (passed away), Toney Douglas (waived), Eric Gordon (free agency, Houston Rockets), Jordan Hamilton (free agency, Turkey), Kendrick Perkins (free agency, unsigned)

Quick Thoughts

For the Pelicans to take the next step toward assembling a contender around Davis, three things needed to happen: Eric Gordon needed to leave in free agency, Omer Asik’s albatross of a contract needed to be cleared from the books, and Tyreke Evans needed to be traded.

It was probably unreasonable to expect all three to happen over the course of one offseason, especially since Asik’s value has never been lower and Evans played a grand total of 25 games last year. But aside from Gordon leaving in free agency, the Pellies are no closer to being a team on the rise than they were a year ago.

Gordon and Ryan Anderson both migrated to the Houston Rockets, depriving the Pellies of their three best three-point shooters from last season when you include Luke Babbitt’s departure for the Miami Heat. Overpaying to keep either Gordon or Anderson would’ve been a mistake, but New Orleans hardly did enough to replace them.

Buddy Hield was the best shooter and scorer in all of college basketball last season, but he’s also a rookie. Cheick Diallo provides great potential value for a second round selection, but he’s going to be a bit of a project.

In free agency, the Pellies opted to spend a combined $86 million on E’Twaun Moore and Solomon Hill — backup-caliber players who will face the pressure of living up to their lucrative summer deals.

Additions like Lance Stephenson, Terrence Jones and Langston Galloway could work out well considering their low price tags, but they also amount to gambles on this jumbled roster. If Anthony Davis was expecting to see substantial change over the summer to get this franchise back on the right track, he was likely disappointed.

Mar 3, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) dunks against the San Antonio Spurs during the first quarter of a game at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. Finding The Path To Contention

For the 2016-17 season, the most the Pelicans can really hope for is a first round playoff exit. The Western Conference playoff picture is relatively wide open after the three virtual locks (Warriors, Spurs, Clippers), but pretty much every other team will be fighting for one of those final five spots.

Playoffs or no playoffs, this season is really all about making progress toward a brighter tomorrow after a disappointing 30-win season, which served as a poor followup to New Orleans’ first playoff series of the Brow era in 2015.

For starters, there will be pressure on the new additions like Hill and Moore to live up to their big offseason deals — or in the case of guys like Terrence Jones and Lance Stephenson, to prove they’re worth a long-term investment.

With E’Twaun Moore and Solomon Hill both locked in for the next four years, the Pelicans have committed a considerable chunk of change to two players who have yet to prove they can sustain their strong finishes to the 2015-16 season over the course of a full 82-game schedule.

Even the closest things to “core pieces” outside of Anthony Davis have something to prove. Jrue Holiday spent most of last season on a minutes restriction, and though he played well off the bench, NOLA really doesn’t have a great starting point guard.

Tim Frazier came on strong for New Orleans last year and Holiday can fulfill his sixth man role well enough, but outside of Anthony Davis, is anyone on this roster really an intrinsic part of what NOLA hopes will eventually be a title contending team?

The 2016-17 season is basically a proving ground for everyone outside of the Brow. It’s about transitioning Davis to the 5-spot and hoping Hill can hold his own as a small-ball 4. It’s about making the playoffs, yes, but perhaps just as important will be determining how to assemble a future contender out of this jumbled roster.

Mar 28, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday (11) drives with the ball against the New York Knicks during the second half of a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans defeated the Knicks 99-91. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. Staying Healthy

The Pelicans were probably better than their 30-52 record indicated, and suffered largely because most of their best players were injured for significant stretches of the season.

Anthony Davis missed 21 games, making it four straight seasons in which he failed to play at least 70 games. Tyreke Evans missed 57 games and his surgically repaired knee probably still won’t be ready for the start of the 2016-17 season.

Ryan Anderson missed 16 games. Gordon and Norris Cole each missed 37. In total, the Pelicans were the most injured team in the league, per Man-Games Lost. To make the playoffs in a conference likely to shake off last season’s slump that required only 41 wins to sneak into the eighth seed, the Pelicans have little room for error. They need to stay healthy.

You could really say that about any playoff-hopeful team, but it applies extra to New Orleans, not only because they were the league’s most injured team, but because their health needs to start with their franchise player.

He’s only been in the league for four years, but it’s a little concerning he’s missed 18, 15, 14 and 21 games in that time. That’s a total of 68 games, or nearly an entire season of his four-year career.

Any game Anthony Davis misses essentially grants the New Orleans’ opponent a game against a lottery-caliber team. If he can’t stay on the court, if Holiday is banged up again, or if Tyreke Evans can’t stay on the court long enough to rebuild his trade value, it could be a long season for the Pelican faithful.

Apr 6, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry gestures at the referee during the first half against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. Is Alvin Gentry The Right Guy For The Job?

When the Pelicans decided to move on from Monty Williams after the 2014-15 season and bring in Golden State Warriors assistant/former Phoenix Suns head coach Alvin Gentry, it was unanimously praised as an upgrade.

Gentry had plenty of experience with the ongoing pace-and-space era, coaching Steve Nash in Phoenix after Mike D’Antoni and winning a championship alongside Steve Kerr and the revolutionary Warriors.

Unfortunately, Gentry’s Pelicans hardly lived up to the hype in his first season at the helm. Even with an outbreak of season-altering injuries, the Pellies hardly looked like an elite offense or an improved defense when they were healthy. It’s only natural that frustration set in all around.

Another unique stat: #Pelicans' Alvin Gentry tied for 3rd in technical fouls among coaches with 8. Gregg Popovich, Frank Vogel most with 9

— Jim Eichenhofer (@Jim_Eichenhofer) September 7, 2016

In their final year under Williams, the Pelicans were the league’s ninth ranked defense (105.4 offensive rating) and 22nd ranked defense (104.7 defensive rating). In their first year under Gentry, they regressed to the NBA’s 16th ranked offense (103.2 offensive rating) and 28th ranked defense (107.3 defensive rating).

That, plus injuries, was a recipe for disaster. All the excitement about Gentry putting the ball in Davis’ hands more and putting him in better positions to succeed quickly gave way to the disappointment of a season that was virtually over before the calendar flipped to 2016.

This season, the onus will be on Gentry to take the jumbled pieces of this roster and prove that last season was just a one-year, worst-case scenario. If the Pelicans struggle out of the gate once again, his seat might begin to warm up.

Apr 12, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets forward Terrence Jones (6) guards New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) during the game at the Toyota Center. The Rockets defeated the Pelicans 121-114. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Best-Case Scenario

Davis plays 75 games in the first fully healthy season of his career, leading the Pelicans to around 45 wins and one of the bottom two playoff spots in the West. The Brow puts up a terrific 26-11-2 stat line in an MVP-caliber season, and though New Orleans is ousted in the first round, there’s a renewed sense of optimism surrounding this team’s future.

More from Hoops Habit

Solomon Hill builds on his terrific three-week stretch to finish the 2015-16 season, putting together the best year of his career. Buddy Hield flourishes as a floor-spacer in his rookie season, while E’Twaun Moore also cashes in on the potential he showed last year.

Gentry’s offense comes together with fully healthy pieces on the floor as the Pelicans become a top-10 unit on that end. The defense is also drastically improved, with New Orleans moving into the middle of the pack.

Tyreke Evans comes back after a few weeks of missed time, quickly putting together an excellent season to bump up his trade value. The Pelicans are able to trade either him or Omer Asik at the deadline.

Worst-Case Scenario

Anthony Davis once again fails to reach the 70-game threshold in his fifth NBA season, missing another 20 or so games due to a variety of maladies. Though he puts up good numbers, he fails to take a leap toward world-beating dominance for the second year in a row.

Hill and Moore struggle to build on a couple of weeks of good play, quickly proving to be ill-advised, costly free agency gambles. Evans has problems recovering from his knee issues and the Pelicans are unable to pawn off an ineffective Asik via trade.

Due to injury problems and a lack of cohesion under Gentry, the Pelicans flounder in 2016-17, finishing with around 30 wins once again. Gentry gets the axe and the Pellies’ stability begins to come into question for the fan base…and perhaps even their star player.

Feb 4, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) shoots against the Los Angeles Lakers during a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Lakers defeated the Pelicans 99-96. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions

Fingers crossed that Anthony Davis plays at least 70 games this year, because if he doesn’t, it’s hard to see how the Pelicans sneak into the playoffs in an improved Western Conference.

The Brow put up great numbers last year, but it’s also true that his game didn’t exactly take the next step forward. His team struggled, he missed significant time and his numbers didn’t really improve, but hopefully that one-year plateau turns back into an uphill climb.

Even if Davis turns in his next career year, however, the Pelicans might not have enough help around him to even reach the 40-win threshold — especially since relying on the health of guys like Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans has not been a rewarding endeavor over the last few years.

Hield predictably has his ups and downs as a rookie, Moore puts together a solid two-way season and Hill proves some of his value as a small-ball 4. Terrence Jones works to restore his free agency value, but Lance Stephenson once again burns out in an unstable situation, and ultimately, NOLA just doesn’t have enough talent and complementary pieces to return to the postseason.

The Pelicans ultimately win around 35 games, finishing 11th in the Western Conference and missing the playoffs for the second season in a row. This puts Gentry on the chopping block and the search for a new head coach — and overall franchise direction — begins.

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