National Basketball Association

NBA Southwest Division: 5 Burning Questions For The 2016-17 Season

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 1:11 p.m. ET

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The Texas trio dominate the NBA headlines in the Southwest Division, but all five teams find themselves in seasons of transition. What burning questions await answers for this division?

Dec 2, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) attempts to drive the ball around Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) during the third quarter at Toyota Center. The Rockets defeated the Pelicans 108-101. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

NBA teams have to answer the same questions each and every season. Can they win the title? Will they be better than last season? Worse than last season? What are their best- and worst-case scenarios?

Unique questions bubble to the surface as well, and these form the suspense as the season nears. Will this particular player step up? What will this event prove about that team? The answers to these questions may come in October, or they may not bear fruit until June.

The Southwest Division brings just as many questions as the other divisions, with a number of teams making moves to plaster over holes. The San Antonio Spurs won a franchise-record 67 games last year to win the division, only to crumble in the playoffs and say goodbye to Tim Duncan. Is Pau Gasol the right replacement?

Memphis and New Orleans fell apart last year amidst an unthinkable rash of injuries. They each added bodies in the draft and free agency to shore up their depth and protect them against a repeat fate. Will their rehab beds stay empty this season?

Dallas and Houston both doubled down on weaknesses. Houston struggled to defend last season, and signed a pair of talented offensive players who neglect the other end of the court. Dallas’ only dribble-penetration came from a 6’ 0” J.J. Barea last year, and they proceeded to add a number of non-dribblers in Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut.

In the end, every offseason move fades into the background as games begin to count. How much a player makes or what he was traded for matters less than whether his shots go in and his opponent’s do not.

But for now, there are questions that demand answers. What are the most burning questions for the Southwest Division? We begin our search at the Alamo.

Oct 12, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; San Antonio Spurs center Pau Gasol (16) points as he talks with forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) against the Orlando Magic during the second quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

How Badly Will The Spurs Miss Tim Duncan?

This summer saw three surefire Hall-of-Famers hang up their jerseys for the final time. By the end of his career Kobe Bryant was a below-average player who actively hurt the Los Angeles Lakers’ ability to win games. Kevin Garnett’s impact in the locker was much more important to the Minnesota Timberwolves than his on-court play.

In San Antonio, however, Tim Duncan was still playing at a high level even as a 40-year-old. While he set career lows in minutes played and points scored, his defensive impact was still elite. His defensive plus/minus was the second-best of his career, and his per 36 minutes steal numbers were a career high.

His impact, combined with the Defensive Player of the Year on the wing in Kawhi Leonard, allowed the Spurs to put together an all-time great defense en route to a franchise-record 67-win season. With Duncan’s retirement and the super team assembled in Oakland, San Antonio signed All-Star Pau Gasol to play the pivot.

On offense the Spurs can expect an upgrade, as Gasol is still scoring and passing at high levels. He put up 16.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 4.1 assists last season amid the turmoil of the Chicago Bulls’ season. Although he played fewer minutes than his career average, similar to Tim Duncan his per-36 steals and blocks were a career high. As athleticism wanes, the game’s elite use their knowledge of the game to continue to improve.

The problem with Gasol’s numbers is that they are out of step with his career marks. His defensive plus/minus was significantly better last year than any season in the past, and that was despite playing on a team that was only league average on defense.

Was Pau Gasol the reason the Bulls didn’t collapse entirely? Or was he simply the lesser of other evils as he played in a frontcourt alongside minus defenders in Nikola Mirotic, Doug McDermott and Cristiano Felicio as Joakim Noah missed the majority of the season?

The Spurs are hoping that it’s the former, and that in their strong defensive system Gasol can replicate last season’s defensive play. In Los Angeles Gasol rarely played with an elite wing defender, while in Chicago Jimmy Butler was an ace who could take the other team’s best scorer.

Gasol gets to keep that safety blanket in Kawhi Leonard, and it’s even increased with Danny Green, a top-flight defender in his own right. LaMarcus Aldridge, while not an elite defender, showed how he can thrive in the Spurs’ system last year. The stage is set for Gasol to see success.

Ultimately the success that matters is in May, when the team has to be able to stop the league’s best offenses in the postseason. The Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors are the other Western juggernauts, and the Spurs most likely will need to take down both to reach the NBA Finals.

Can Pau Gasol fill the biggest shoes and keep the Spurs rolling along as an elite squad? It’s a baptism by fire as the season opens Tuesday with a matchup against the Warriors.

Oct 3, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Harrison Barnes (40) drives to the basket against the Charlotte Hornets during the first quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Who Is The Second Best Player On The Mavericks?

Dirk Nowitzki has been one of the most consistent faces of the NBA, draining gorgeous one-legged jumpers in a Mavericks uniform since 1998. One of only four active players to see the court in the 90s, Dirk is now the NBA’s active leader in games played, minutes played and points scored.

Despite entering his age-38 season, Nowitzki has shown little signs of slowing down on offense. Defensively he has fallen off, but that was never his greatest strength. Dirk is going to the Hall of Fame based on shot after shot falling through the net, and the elite offenses that could be built around a seven-footer with a perfect shot.

Dallas is taking yet another shot at building such an offense around Dirk, and this time even offensive wizard Rick Carlisle will feel himself strained to head up a top-10 offense. No other projected starter on the Mavericks appears capable of creating their own shot, and if Dirk does begin to feel his age this offense could grind to a halt.

Andrew Bogut is the team’s best defensive player, an anchor on defense the Mavericks haven’t had in years. No player in the league posted a better defensive RPM (real plus-minus) last season than Bogut, and his absence during the last three games of the NBA Finals was a major contributor to their 3-1 collapse.

But Bogut is not an offensive threat, better deployed as a facillitator and screener. His role will be complementary, not the player to step up when Dirk is on the bench.

Deron Williams is a former All-Star with the history of being an above-average scorer, but despite a mid-career revival in Dallas, is not ready to be anything more than a borderline starter. Wesley Matthews is a knockdown shooter who struggled all of last season to regain his form recovering from an Achilles tear.

That leaves Harrison Barnes to step up and take on the mantle of wingman. He is being paid as the next star for the Dallas Mavericks, earning a max-level $94 million contract over four years. He boasts the athleticism, strength and physical tools to be a high-scoring combo wing that contributes at both ends.

The reality is almost certainly something less, however. Barnes was unable to take advantage of opportunities afforded him in Golden State, wilting on the biggest stage and missing nearly every open look he received during the NBA Finals. Working as the fourth or fifth option on the Warriors, Barnes never showed himself capable to excelling in any role.

The young forward out of North Carolina will be solid defensively, but he isn’t a lockdown level defender either. He can knock down open three-pointers at a decent clip, score around the rim, and move the ball. But his shot is inconsistent and he has a very limited handle.

In the end the season will show who steps up alongside Dirk Nowitzki. If the team is relying on Deron Williams they will be disappointed; if they are relying on Barnes, it is at least possible he blossoms outside of the Bay Area and steps into a greater role. Possible, but not likely.

Dec 11, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward JaMychal Green (0) and forward Zach Randolph (50) react during the second quarter against the Charlotte Hornets at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Is Memphis Right To Start JaMychal Green?

Since the Memphis Grizzlies traded for Zach Randolph in July of 2009, he has been a fixture at power forward. Other than stretches rehabilitating injuries, “Z-Bo” started and dominated any foolish young forward dumb enough to guard him.

For the first time last year, the Grizzlies began limiting the minutes for the 34-year old, keeping him fresh for the postseason. During the middle of the season Randolph began many games on the bench, although the team slid him back into the starting lineup down the stretch and in the postseason.

Randolph’s numbers haven’t cratered at this point in his career; last season’s points, shots, percentages, and assists were all in line with career levels. His rebounds did drop off, but that could be a one-year blip.

The issue with Randolph is on defense, where the stocky power forward struggles with foot speed. As defenses move towards versatile, switch-heavy schemes, the very unversatile Randolph is being left behind. To maximize his offensive impact and minimize his defensive impact, new coach David Fizdale is moving him to the bench and promoting JaMychal Green to the starting lineup.

Green is entering his third season in the league, and last year started 15 games for the Grizzlies as they struggled under the weight of their injuries. He can move on defense, is a strong rebounder at both ends of the court, and gives the coaching staff more options as the fifth starter.

That isn’t to say Green is better than Randolph, but rather that he is a better fit. On a thin bench, Z-Bo can provide above-average endpoints for possessions. With the starters, Green can fill a role and move on defense.

It seems that head coach David Fizdale may have made the move that grants the highest ceiling. If he can get Randolph to fully buy in, then he will be starting off with early success.

Oct 4, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; New York Knicks guard Sasha Vujacic (18) dribbles the ball as Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) defends during the third quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Are The Rockets Going To Be Last In Defense?

Last season could be accurately described as a “Failure to Launch” for the Houston Rockets. Fueled by an out-of-shape James Harden, the Rockets stumbled out of the gate and didn’t reach the lofty heights fans expected after a trip to the Western Conference Finals.

This offseason Houston went all-in on improving their offense, a unit that struggled with efficiency and playmaking outside of James Harden. They hired offensive guru Mike D’Antoni as head coach, and added Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon to space the floor.

Early returns are positive, as the Rockets have scored 116 in five of their six preseason games (dropping 106 on the road against Dallas in their most recent bout). Houston is scoring buckets from everywhere on the floor, and getting up and down the court in D’Antoni’s fast-paced system.

Defense is where the concern lies, and it could be a major issue this season. Anderson and Gordon are both minus defenders, and paired with James Harden the Rockets will have a difficult time stopping anyone.

Patrick Beverly is a tenacious defender, but is most likely heading towards knee surgery. Trevor Ariza has the resume of a strong wing defender, but last season posted a negative defensive RPM. Clint Capela steps in for Dwight Howard with no experience filling a major role.

This preseason the Rockets have scored in bunches, but their defense has given those buckets right back. Four of their six games have seen their opponent break the century mark, including a sky-high 134 points in a loss to a Grizzlies team that has averaged 107 in its other games.

Two items of hope remain for those finding a reason the Rockets won’t be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. First, Mike A’Antoni has made it clear he is considering starting Nene at center over Clint Capela.

The Brazilian center ranked 16th in the league last season in defensive RPM, a large body who knows where to position himself on defense. As the raw Capela continues to learn the system, Nene could help shore up the backline and push this defense closer to league average.

When Nene isn’t on the floor, Capela can provide assistance even outside of traditional defensive ability. A career 35.9 percent free throw shooter, he will be a target for teams intentionally fouling to slow down the Houston offense. Whether he makes his foul shots or not, the Houston defense will play much better given time to set up after a free throw attempt. Indirectly, that could be Capela’s largest contribution to a league-average defense.

Ultimately it’s unlikely Houston will field the very worst defense in the NBA. However, last year the sum was less than its parts overall for the Rockets; if that is true under a new coach then the defense could approach historic lows.

Oct 1, 2016; Bossier City, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Buddy Hield (24) and forward Anthony Davis (23) and guard Tim Frazier (2) and guard Lance Stephenson (5) walk onto the court after a time out against the Dallas Mavericks during a game at CenturyLink Center. New Orleans won 116-102. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

What Is The Pelicans’ Best Frontcourt Arrangement?

Anthony Davis is a big man of the future, a long and athletic young big who can protect the rim, throw down lob passes, crash the boards at both ends, and shoot out to the arc. If Kristaps Porzingis is a unicorn, then Anthony Davis is a Pegasus.

Since drafting Davis, the Pelicans have struggled to place the right pieces around him. Both Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans have good chemistry with Davis from the backcourt, but his frontcourt partners have been less desirable.

Initially Davis was slotted as a power forward, set up alongside Robin Lopez, Omer Asik, and even Kendrick Perkins. These slow-footed centers could absorb contact to protect Davis’ body, but their lack of quickness meant New Orleans couldn’t fully maximize Davis’ versatility in a switch-everything defensive scheme. On offense they crowded the paint, not leaving room for Davis to soar to the rim.

Ryan Anderson was the most dynamic offensive pairing, opening up the floor with his shooting. But as a complete swinging door on defense, Anderson didn’t solve the defensive issues, so such lineups were only marginally better.

While Omer Asik is still around, the Pelicans have a number of new options in the frontcourt, and each offers unique combinations when paired with Anthony Davis. In addition, each slides Davis to the center, where he can be most effective on offense against slower opposing centers.

Solomon Hill was the summer’s biggest signing for New Orleans, available due to Indiana’s inexplicable decline of his fourth-year option. A combo forward, Hill projects out best as a stretch-4. Unlike Ryan Anderson, Hill could pair with Davis on both ends of the court, sliding into a switch-heavy scheme on defense.

Terrence Jones joined the Pelicans on a make-good one-year contract, seeking redemption after a complete disaster last season held him back from the lucrative extension he was in store for. Jones is skilled and can score from all over the court. Two seasons ago he put up solid rebounding and block numbers per 36 minutes, making a powerful impact during his reserve minutes.

New Orleans offers a similar role, and more minutes the more Davis plays at center. If he can reclaim his offensive prowess, teams will struggle to match up against the scoring ability of Jones and Davis inside.

The final combination may be one for late season or even years to come, as rookie Cheick Diallo enters the league as a raw prospect out of Kansas. Diallo is slated for a deep bench role this season, but he brings hyper-athleticism and a constant motor. Against the Houston Rockets this preseason Diallo dropped 12 points and seven rebounds in 20 minutes. Paired together, Davis and Diallo would almost certainly be the two best athletes on the court at any given time.

Anthony Davis is going to shine no matter who is around him, but it’s on head coach Alvin Gentry to find the best lineups to maximize his star’s talent and win basketball games. This offseason gave them more options to find the right ones.