NBA Season Preview: 5 plays not even the NBA's best defenses can stop
Every offense has that one go-to play they rely on when they need a bucket. Some of those plays are so good that it really doesn’t matter that the defense does.
With more teams implementing defensive schemes built on switching one through five, there are fewer plays that are truly unstoppable. Even Stephen Curry, who dominated the NBA throughout the 2015-16 regular season in just about every way imaginable, struggled in the postseason when mobile bigs like Steven Adams and Tristan Thompson switched onto him. Injuries likely played a role in him being unable to shake them 1-on-1, but small weaknesses in those plays paved the way for opponents to find a solution.
However, there are a number of plays the NBA’s best defensive units can’t stop whether they decide to switch or not. Some stem from a new bond being formed — Curry and Kevin Durant being the obvious one — whereas others continue to stand the test of time. With that in mind, from J.J. Redick running off of screens to LeBron James pushing the ball in transition, let’s take a look at five in detail that stand out from the crowd.
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5. Pick-and-rolls between Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant
Pick-and-rolls between Curry and Draymond Green were difficult enough to defend. If opponents didn’t hedge, Curry would get a wide open jump shot from his sweet spot. If they doubled, Green would slip to the basket for a layup or pop for a three-pointer. And if they crashed the paint, Green would find one of the three shooters standing on the perimeter for a wide open look.
As we learned from the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers in the playoffs, the only way to combat those pick-and-rolls was to switch assignments and do everything humanly possible to stop Curry from getting a shot off. If successful, Green wasn’t going to punish teams for putting a smaller player on him in the post because he’s not a great scorer with his back to the basket.
With Durant taking Green’s place, that’ll no longer be a problem. Not only is Durant a better shooter and finisher than Green, he ranked in the 99.6 percentile in post-up scoring with 1.23 points per possession. If teams dare switch assignments when Curry and Durant are involved in a pick-and-roll, Curry will either isolate himself at the top of the key or give Durant the ball on the block. Durant can even act as the ball handler (0.93 PPP), so they can get funky with Curry setting a screen on him if they want.
Basically, there isn’t anything Curry and Durant can’t do.
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4. J.J. Redick running off of screens
When it comes to scoring off of screens, the only person who can beat J.J. Redick is Curry. Redick scored over a third of his points in those situations last season and averaged an incredible 1.12 points per possession. Additionally, of the 28 players who attempted at least 100 shots off of screens, Redick was joined by only Evan Fournier and Curry when it came to posting an effective field goal percentage of 56.0 or greater.
The Los Angeles Clippers don’t need to run anything complicated to get Redick open thanks to the amount of attention Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan generate. Plus, Redick needs little-to-no space to get off his shot anyway. He’s comfortable shooting from the three-point line and midrange, which makes it difficult for teams to decide between going over and under the screens he’s involved in. He can put the ball on the floor and make a play for himself, too, whether it’s in the form of pull-ups or simple drives to the rim.
To further set himself from the pack, Redick is also one of the league leaders in scoring off of hand-offs. They made up nearly a fifth of his total points and he averaged 0.96 points per possession (71.2 percentile). Together, it forces teams to account for Redick at all times when he’s in the half court.
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3. Dirk Nowitzki going to the block
Dirk Nowitzki isn’t close to being the athlete he once was, but he still can’t be stopped in the post. With an average of 1.02 points per possession, Nowitzki ranked in the 89.7 percentile in post-up scoring last season. Making that more impressive is he put up that level of efficiency while trailing only LaMarcus Aldridge, Andre Drummond, Brook Lopez and Zach Randolph in shot attempts with his back to the basket.
Nowitzki’s bread and butter in the post has been and always will be his jump shot. He has an incredible advantage by being a seven-footer with a silky smooth stroke, and it makes him nearly impossible to block — usually the only way to stop him in those situations — when he breaks out his patented fadeaway.
To throw a wrench in the works, Nowitzki can still do things like this:
And this:
For that reason, look for Nowitzki to rank amongst the best post-up scorers yet again this season.
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2. Spread pick-and-rolls with James Harden and Clint Capela
James Harden and Clint Capela were already a good pick-and-roll tandem. Harden finished last season in the 91.4 percentile in pick-and-roll scoring and Capela was only slightly less efficient as the roll man by ranking in the 83.6 percentile. The combination of Harden’s playmaking with Capela’s ability to finish over 65 percent of his shots within three feet of the basket gave them the makings of a scary one-two punch.
The only caveat was the Houston Rockets didn’t run pick-and-rolls as well as they could have — their spacing was all over the place, which contributed to Harden setting an all-time record in turnovers — and they didn’t have adequate shooting around them. While the Rockets took the second most three-pointers on the season, 18 teams shot a greater overall percentage from the perimeter, making it much easier to send multiple defenders at Harden than it should’ve been.
That’s why the additions of Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon in particular will make spread pick-and-rolls between Harden and Capela deadlier. Corey Brewer, Marcus Thornton and Jason Terry combined to shoot 34.2 percent on wide open 3-pointers last season, whereas Anderson and Gordon shot a combined 45.8 percent. We already know Harden and Capela can score with the best of them in pick-and-rolls, and there’s no longer a better option for teams to take away with some of the league’s best spot-up shooters surrounding them.
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1. LeBron James leaking out in transition
Similar to Nowitzki, father time can’t stop LeBron James from punishing teams in transition. Beyond averaging an absurd 1.32 points per fastbreak possession last season, James scored on 60.5 percent of his opportunities and was fouled 23.5 percent of the time. The only players with a decent sample size who came remotely close to matching those numbers were Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kemba Walker and Kyle Lowry.
The reason James thrives in transition is because he’s a hyper-athletic forward standing at 6-8 and 250 pounds with the skills of a point guard. He can change directions on a dime, contort his body in ways most players can only dream of and finish over just about anyone with powerful moves. He even has the luxury of playing alongside Kevin Love, who throws some of the best outlet passes we’ve ever seen. Knowing Love gobbles up boards like few others, the security of his rebounding prowess allows James to leak out like a wide receiver earlier than he probably should.
There’s also the nature of transition plays that put James at an advantage. More often than not, based on how teams are positioned on offense, the point guard is the first player back on defense. With the list of players who can stick with James in isolation already being short, 6-2 point guards that weigh under 200 pounds don’t have much of a chance of stopping a freight train.
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