National Basketball Association

Memphis Grizzlies: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 4:27 p.m. ET

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The Memphis Grizzlies had a great summer, but can they stay healthy long enough to fix their three-point shooting? Here’s their 2016-17 season outlook.

Mar 20, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Chandler Parsons (25) drives to the basket past Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) during the first quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

After an injury-stricken year that saw the Memphis Grizzlies set an NBA single season record for most players on their roster (28), the grit-n-grind era was perilously close to ending. But with some deft maneuvering in free agency, the Grizz were not only able to preserve it, but revitalize it as well.

No one will be expecting this Memphis team to challenge the Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs for Western supremacy, but this could very well be the most dangerous iteration of grit-n-grind — even compared to the 2013 team that made it all the way to the conference finals.

The timing is unfortunate for the Grizzlies. Not only did they manage to bolster their starting rotation the same summer that a 73-win Warriors team added Kevin Durant, but they also did so with their star players starting to show signs of wear and tear.

If this team can stay healthy, however, the Grizzlies now have the defensive personnel AND three-point firepower to be a far more well-rounded team. Head coach Dave Joerger is gone, but there shouldn’t be too many changes to the blueprint that’s kept Memphis successful for the last half decade.

What can be expected from this late resurgence of grit-n-grind? Do the Grizzlies have a puncher’s chance of winning the West? Here’s a look at their season outlook for 2016-17.

2015-16 Vitals

42-40, 4th in Southwest Division, 7th in Western Conference
99.1 PPG (24th)/101.3 OPP PPG (11th)
105.4 Offensive Rating (19th)/107.8 Defensive Rating (19th)

Team Leaders
Scoring: Marc Gasol, 16.6 PPG
Rebounding: Zach Randolph, 7.8 RPG
Assists: Mike Conley, 6.1 APG
Steals: Tony Allen, 1.7 SPG
Blocks: Marc Gasol, 1.3 BPG

Honors
Sportsmanship Award: Mike Conley
Twyman-Stokes Teammate of the Year Award: Vince Carter
NBA All-Defensive Second Team: Tony Allen

Mar 6, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) signals to his team as he dribbles in the first quarter against the Phoenix Suns at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Roster

Jordan Adams, SG
Tony Allen, SG
Wade Baldwin IV, PG
Vince Carter, SG
Mike Conley, PG
Troy Daniels, SG
Deyonta Davis, PF
James Ennis, SF
Marc Gasol, C
JaMychal Green, PF
Andrew Harrison, PG
Jarell Martin, PF
Chandler Parsons, SF
Zach Randolph, PF
Wayne Selden Jr., SG
D.J. Stephens, SG
Troy Williams, SF
Brandan Wright, PF
Tony Wroten, SG

Offseason Additions
Wade Baldwin IV (17th overall draft pick, Vanderbilt), Troy Daniels (sign-and-trade, Charlotte Hornets), Deyonta Davis (31st overall draft pick, Michigan State), Chandler Parsons (free agency, Dallas Mavericks), Wayne Selden Jr. (free agency, undrafted), D.J. Stephens (free agency, D-League), Troy Williams (free agency, undrafted), Tony Wroten (free agency)

Offseason Subtractions
Chris Andersen (free agency, Cleveland Cavaliers), Matt Barnes (free agency, Sacramento Kings), Mario Chalmers (free agency, unsigned), Jordan Farmar (free agency, Sacramento Kings), P.J. Hairston (free agency, unsigned), Xavier Munford (declined team option), Lance Stephenson (free agency, New Orleans Pelicans),

Quick Thoughts

Despite losing a couple of key names in free agency, the Grizzlies did an excellent job addressing some areas of need this summer. They also just so happened to avoid a complete rebuild by retaining Mike Conley.

In the draft, Memphis did well to nab Conley’s insurance/potential successor with point guard Wade Baldwin IV. They also got a potential steal in the second round with Michigan State’s Deyonta Davis, a stretch-4 who was projected to go as high as the lottery going into draft night.

Re-signing Conley was never guaranteed, but Memphis managed to do so with the help of Chandler Parsons, who joined the Grizz on a massive four-year, $95 million contract. Combined with the sign-and-trade for Troy Daniels, this team’s three-point shooting may not be such a glaring weakness in 2016-17.

Going all in on a core that’s had a hard time staying healthy in recent seasons is a risky move, but it also ensures that injury-devastated 2015-16 campaign wouldn’t be the last hurrah for grit-n-grind.

Dec 11, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) and center Marc Gasol (33) look on during the second half against the Charlotte Hornets at FedExForum. The Hornets won 123-99. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. Staying Healthy

Winning 42 games and making the playoffs as the seventh seed despite Marc Gasol (30 games), Mike Conley (26), Zach Randolph (14), Tony Allen (18) and Brandan Wright (70) all missing significant time was a testament to Dave Joerger’s coaching ability.

With Joerger gone and David Fizdale stepping up to the helm of a ship that’s been on bruise control for years now, the Grizzlies will be relying on improved injury luck if they want to make some noise out West this season.

That may be more difficult than it sounds. Gasol is now 31 years old, is a seven-footer coming off a foot injury, and has failed to hit the 60-game threshold in two of his last three seasons. Conley, who was signed to the most lucrative deal in NBA history with a $153 million contract, saw his game regress a bit last season as he also dealt with a season-ending foot injury.

Despite being one of Memphis’ more durable key players, Zach Randolph turned 35 over the summer. Even Parsons, the Grizzlies’ marquee free agency move over the summer, has a penchant for crummy injury luck.

He’s missed three, six, eight, 16 and 21 games over the course of his five years in the league, with his injury-proneness trending in the wrong direction all the while. He’ll even be entering training camp limited by a knee injury, which is less than ideal for a $95 million investment.

If the Grizzlies can stay healthy, they’re a very safe bet to make the playoffs behind the West’s three locks (Warriors, Spurs, Clippers). But if they struggle in that department again in 2016-17, it may be a lot to ask of a first-year head coach to get an aging roster back to the postseason.

Mar 9, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Chandler Parsons (25) makes a jump shot against the Detroit Pistons during the second quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. Three-Point Shooting

For years now, the Grizzlies’ biggest Achilles heel has been three-point shooting. In a pace-and-space league, Memphis’ hard-nosed defense, bruising mentality and interior strength have all been for naught once the playoffs rolled around.

Time and time again, we’ve seen smarter opponents sag off of Tony Allen in the postseason, daring him to shoot while sending extra help to guard Gasol and Z-Bo in the paint. In each of the last five seasons, the Grizz have been in the bottom third for three-point percentage and bottom five for made three-pointers per game:

In 2016-17, the Grizzlies will be hoping they did enough to address their fatal flaw. Parsons, a career 38 percent shooter from long range, is the key addition in this department. Last season, he shot a career-high 41.4 percent from downtown on 4.1 attempts per game.

There’s also Troy Daniels, who earned run over Jeremy Lamb with the Charlotte Hornets last year because of his superior three-point shooting. He converted 48.4 percent of his 2.8 attempts per game in 43 appearances last year.

If the rookie Baldwin sees significant time off the bench, he’s another player who could potentially help. Baldwin shot 40.6 percent and 43.9 percent from deep in his two seasons as Vanderbilt. A healthy Conley should help in this area as well, though his three-point efficiency slipped to 36.3 percent last season.

That’s a lot of responsibility to heap onto three or four players, and none of this changes the fact that Tony Allen is tough to play in a playoff series. Still, the Grizzlies will be hoping to avoid finishing in the bottom third of league for three-point shooting once again in 2016-17.

Apr 9, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) dribbles the ball as Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) defends at FedExForum. The Warriors won 100-99. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. Trying To Slay Goliath

Assuming the Grizzlies’ core players stay relatively healthy, and that they fixed their Achilles heel on the perimeter…does any of it really matter?

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I’m not here to make a “ringzzz” kind of argument. The Grizzlies’ success during the grit-n-grind era shouldn’t be measured by their lack of a championship, nor should it if they fall short again in 2016-17. This has been the most enjoyable team — by far — in the franchise’s history, and this current iteration is their best one yet (on paper, at least).

But we also can’t ignore that as exciting as this summer was for Grizzlies fans, Kevin Durant’s migration to the Bay Area caps it off somewhat. Technically you could say that about all but one or two teams in the league, but there’s no denying the sense that the timing of Conley re-signing and Parsons joining is less than ideal.

The Warriors have rapidly become a dynasty in the making, even if they didn’t actually win it all last season. That team just added a top-three player to their ranks, the Spurs aren’t going anywhere even with Tim Duncan retiring, and the reigning champion Cleveland Cavaliers would be heavily favored in the NBA Finals even if Memphis somehow managed to survive the Western gauntlet.

With Gasol and Z-Bo on the wrong side of 30, most of the roster injury-prone and the top of the West as lopsided as ever, the Grizzlies need just about everything to go right — kind of how it did in 2013, when Russell Westbrook‘s injury paved the way for a trip to the conference finals — to be able to slay Goliath.

Jan 8, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) and Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) against the Denver Nuggets during the second half at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies defeated Denver Nuggets 91 – 84. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Best-Case Scenario

Parsons stays health in his first season in Memphis, and with Troy Daniels’ help, the Grizzlies are no longer an ineffective three-point shooting team. Baldwin quickly proves himself as an NBA-ready floor general off the bench, playing with poise and showing that he can in fact play the point guard position at the next level.

Gasol and Conley come back strong from injury-stricken seasons, helping lead Memphis to 54 wins despite Z-Bo showing signs of his age.

With the Warriors/Spurs/Clippers all experiencing horrible injury luck at the outset of the playoffs, the Grizzlies are able to pull off the improbable and make it back to the Western Conference Finals. They lose to a superior team among that trio — whichever one is healthiest — but also prove this team’s prime has not passed them by just yet.

Worst-Case Scenario

Gasol, Conley and Parsons all miss 15-20 games once again, making it difficult for first-year head coach David Fizdale to put a consistent product on the court. Though Parsons shoots the ball well from three-point range, his absences take their toll on yet another poor three-point shooting Grizzlies squad.

Daniels is unable to sustain his hot shooting from Charlotte, Baldwin struggles in a backup role and Gasol and Z-Bo start to show serious signs of their age.

Memphis sputters to 40 wins with one or more of their key players missing serious time, and the Grizzlies miss the playoffs in the first chapter of what should’ve been the resurgence of grit-n-grind.

Mar 2, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) celebrates against the Sacramento Kings during the second half at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies defeated Sacramento Kings 104-98. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions

The Memphis Grizzlies aren’t going to be 100 percent healthy again in 2016-17, but they won’t be the injury-stricken team that many fear they’ll be. Parsons will probably miss 10-20 games again, especially as he enters the season nursing a knee injury, but the key players should be able to stay on the court long enough to show signs of growth.