National Basketball Association

Los Angeles Lakers: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The Los Angeles Lakers are taking the slow path back to contention for the first time in decades. Here’s a look at their 2016-17 season outlook with predictions for the upcoming campaign.

Mar 1, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard D Angelo Russell (1) celebrates with Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson (left) after making a shot during the fourth quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Staples Center. The Los Angeles Lakers won 107-101. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Lakers are perhaps the NBA’s most prestigious franchise of all time, but as the 2015-16 season proved, no one is immune to the league’s cyclical nature.

Sooner or later, every team enjoys the thrill of being a championship contender…just as they also suffer an inevitable fall from grace in a rebuilding stage. It took the Lakers longer than anyone to reach that point, but their 17-win season last year marked the franchise’s all-time worst mark.

Those 17 wins seemed like an inappropriate way to send off Kobe Bryant‘s Hall of Fame career, but in actuality, the Black Mamba’s farewell tour took precedence over anything the Lakers had going for them on the court.

Head coach Byron Scott quickly wore out his welcome in L.A., resulting in his termination at the end of the season. Luckily, all that on-court inadequacy resulted in the second overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, giving the Lakers yet another chance to build for the future.

Scott is gone now, Bryant left Lakers fans with one last goodbye present in his final game, and new head coach Luke Walton is returning to Laker-land to usher in a new era built around a promising young core.

With farewell tours and incompetent coaches no longer obstructing the longer path back to prominence, the 2016-17 season represents a scary and exciting new chapter of Lakers basketball — the first of the post-Kobe Bryant era.

2015-16 Vitals

17-65, 5th in Pacific Division, 15th in Western Conference
97.3 PPG (30th)/106.9 OPP PPG (27th)
101.6 Offensive Rating (29th)/111.6 Defensive Rating (30th)

Team Leaders
Scoring: Kobe Bryant, 17.6 PPG
Rebounding: Julius Randle,10.2 RPG
Assists: Marcelo Huertas, 3.4 APG
Steals: D’Angelo Russell, 1.2 SPG
Blocks: Roy Hibbert, 1.4 BPG

Honors
NBA All-Rookie Second Team: D’Angelo Russell

July 5, 2016; El Segundo, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers draft picks Brandon Ingram and Ivica Zubac pose with vice president of basketball operation Jim Buss following their introductory press conference at Toyota Sports Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Roster

Zach Auguste, PF
Tarik Black, C
Anthony Brown, SF
Jose Calderon, PG
Jordan Clarkson, SG
Luol Deng, SF
Marcelo Huertas, PG
Brandon Ingram, SF
Julian Jacobs, PG
Yi Jianlian, C
Timofey Mozgov, C
Larry Nance Jr., PF
Julius Randle, PF
D’Angelo Russell, PG
Travis Wear, SF
Louis Williams, SG
Nick Young, SF
Ivica Zubac, C

Offseason Additions
Zach Auguste (undrafted free agent, Notre Dame), Jose Calderon (trade, Chicago Bulls), Luol Deng (free agent, Miami Heat), Brandon Ingram (No. 2 overall draft pick, Duke), Julian Jacobs (undrafted free agent, USC), Yi Jianlian (free agent, Guangdong Southern Tigers {China}), Timofey Mozgov (free agent, Cleveland Cavaliers), Travis Wear (free agent, RETAbet.es GBC {Spain}), Ivica Zubac (No. 32 overall draft pick, France)

Offseason Subtractions
Brandon Bass (free agent, Los Angeles Clippers), Kobe Bryant (retirement), Roy Hibbert (free agent, Charlotte Hornets), Ryan Kelly (free agent, unsigned), Robert Sacre (free agent, New Orleans Pelicans), Metta World Peace (free agent, unsigned)

Quick Thoughts

With respected veterans like Kobe and Metta World Peace — and not-so-respected veterans like Roy Hibbert and Brandon Bass — on the way out, the Lakers fan base is all in on a rebuilding effort centered around D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram and Julius Randle.

New additions like Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov, despite being vastly overpaid, should help tighten up the league’s worst defense from last season and provide a somewhat immature group of youngsters with positive examples of veteran leadership.

In a summer that had been circled on most fans’ calendars for years because of Kevin Durant‘s free agency, the Lakers’ inability to even secure meetings with the summer’s marquee free agents was an obvious disappointment.

However, other than that disastrously inflated Mozgov contract, the Lakers did well to stay focused on internal growth over the offseason. Rookie Brandon Ingram has been compared to Kevin Durant, and though those comparisons may be a bit premature, his ceiling is immense.

Second round pick Ivica Zubac also proved to be a tantalizing prospect in NBA Summer League, averaging 10.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game. Ideally, “Zublocka” will be able to prove himself and replace Mozzy as the team’s starting center by season’s end.

The question now is how Walton will manage a crowded backcourt rotation. Between Russell, Clarkson, Jose Calderon, Marcelo Huertas, Louis Williams and Nick Young, the Lakers’ current roster doesn’t have enough minutes to go around for everyone.

Mar 23, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward Julius Randle (30) and guard D’Angelo Russell (1) against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Suns defeated the Lakers 119-107. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. How Good Is This Young Core?

Barring a plague-like outbreak of injuries in the West, the Los Angeles Lakers won’t be a playoff team again this year. Fortunately, all that really matters for the upcoming season is the progress shown by the foundational Russell-Clarkson-Ingram-Randle quartet.

The chemistry between all these young pieces is the overarching purpose of the 2016-17 season.

Last season, Clarkson was the team’s second-leading scorer at 15.5 points per game on slightly inefficient shooting splits of .433/.347/.804. Can he prove himself to be more than just a future sixth man? Can he and D’Angelo Russell co-exist in the same backcourt?

Russell earned All-NBA Rookie Second Team honors, coming on strong at the end of the season after failing to earn Bryon Scott’s trust early in the year. After the All-Star break, the youngster averaged an impressive 15.1 points, 3.3 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game while shooting 38.9 percent from three-point range.

The question is, can he overcome concerns about his maturity to become the franchise player and well-rounded point guard this franchise needs?

If Russell is unable to take that step forward in just his second season, all eyes will shift to Brandon Ingram as the next franchise savior — if they’re not there already. With the surprisingly fluid athleticism that fellow slender guys like KD and Giannis Antetokounmpo regularly display, Ingram is expected to be the future face of the Los Angeles Lakers.

Even if Los Angeles is terrible again in 2016-17, which they likely will be after sporting the NBA’s worst defense and second-worst offense last year, at least Ingram’s progress — and standing in the Rookie of the Year conversation — will provide fans with some kind of distraction.

Then there’s Randle, who is a bit of an unknown at this point. There are concerns him about possibly winding up a tweener, his shooting was less than efficient, he can’t spread the floor and his defensive awareness clearly needs some work.

That being said, Randle did just average a double-double in what was essentially his rookie season, and his unique blend of speed and interior strength makes him a tough player to stop when he gets rolling.

Not much is expected of Randle compared to Russell and Ingram, but the 2016-17 season could go a long ways in proving he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as those two cornerstones.

Finally, there are the auxiliary pieces. Can Larry Nance Jr. develop into anything more than an energetic role player who throws down a mesmerizing dunk from time to time? Is Ivica Zubac a long-term answer at center? Can Anthony Brown crack the rotation?

The 2016-17 season isn’t a make-or-break situation for any of these players, but in the first Lakers season in two decades that won’t feature Kobe dominating the rock, the youngsters’ progress toward contending again in the future will take center stage.

Apr 10, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat forward Luol Deng (9) reacts after drawing a foul during the first half against the Orlando Magic at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. The Need For Leadership

The future stars of the Lakers will be the main focus in 2016-17, but how they’re guided by the veteran crew could make all the difference between failure and progress toward a brighter tomorrow.

More explicitly: Can guys like Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov have a positive impact on a locker room full of young knuckleheads?

Perhaps that seems like a broad label for one infamous incident, but there’s no question that Russell’s blunder in airing out teammate Nick Young’s dirty laundry divided the locker room and inspired righteous questions about his maturity. Those concerns extend to Clarkson and far beyond that one incident as well.

Despite his legendary career and extensive list of accomplishments, Kobe Bryant was never known for being a “great teammate.” Though he grew more supportive of the younger generation as the season went on, the Black Mamba’s final season was about him.

Now guys like Deng and Mozgov will be paid handsomely to instill better defensive effort and overall professionalism on an extremely inexperience roster.

It’s only a matter of time before guys like Ingram (and hopefully Zubac) replace their starting counterparts, so what Deng and Mozgov provide on the floor is hardly as important as what they can do for the locker room — regardless of what their massively bloated salaries might indicate.

Jun 21, 2016; El Segunda, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers new head coach Luke Walton talks to the media during a press conference at Toyota Sports Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. Can Walton Handle The Job?

Deng and Mozgov will be expected to set an example for the younger players, but the Lakers’ much-needed culture change will begin and end with new head coach Luke Walton.

As a highly respected assistant coach for the Golden State Warriors over the last two years, there’s no question Walton understands what it means to be a part of a championship-caliber culture. The question is whether or not he can bottle up that same mentality and replicate it in Los Angeles.

With Steve Kerr battling his own health problems last season, Walton filled in admirably as the interim head coach for the Dubs, helping the Warriors start their season on a historic 39-4 tear. However, he also had the luxury of filling in for an immensely talented team that already had a sturdy structure, game plan and affirming basketball culture in place.

In Los Angeles, Walton will be tasked with building a similar environment for the franchise he once played for. The personnel is different, their strengths are different, and there’s no Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson or Draymond Green to be found on this roster.

But Lakers fans should be confident in their new head coach. Like the team’s overall development, the progress won’t come overnight. There will be a learning curve for Walton, especially with considerably less talent and experience to work with.

But after spending such a crucial part of his coaching career with the Warriors, Walton understands what it takes to win in his league — tactically, chemistry-wise, from a maturity perspective, you name it. At the very least, he’ll be better than Byron Scott, and that in and of itself is a victory.

Mar 23, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward Larry Nance Jr. (7) and guard D’Angelo Russell (1) against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Suns defeated the Lakers 119-107. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Best-Case Scenario

Brandon Ingram overtakes Luol Deng for the starting small forward job midway through the season, using athleticism and efficient shooting to overcome his chief disadvantage in strength.

D’Angelo Russell stays out of trouble and continues to grow as a player, showing signs of one day being able to assert himself as a legitimate floor general and on-court leader. Clarkson feeds off of Russell’s playmaking ability, putting together his finest shooting/scoring season yet.

Randle shores up on the defensive end with Mozgov helping protect the rim, while Ivica Zubac earns extended run to eventually replace Mozzy in the starting lineup. By season’s end, Russell, Clarkson, Ingram, Randle and Zubac are all starting for a team far outside of the playoff picture, building confidence in a pressure-free situation.

Being a Western Conference bottom-feeder doesn’t sound like a best-case scenario, but the upcoming NBA Draft class is loaded and the Lakers owe their 2017 first-rounder to the Philadelphia 76ers if it falls outside the top-three.

Why not encourage internal development in another tank year to add yet another potential franchise cornerstone to the foundation?

Worst-Case Scenario

Walton struggles to reach his younger players, opting to feed Deng and Mozgov unnecessary minutes for far too long as he tries to prove himself as an NBA head coach.

Russell and Clarkson continue to show signs of immaturity, while Ingram struggles to prove himself off the bench against the NBA’s stronger wings. Randle averages another ho-hum double-double without making any substantial progress, while Zubac’s impressive Summer League showing proves to be nothing but a mirage.

With Walton feeding minutes to veterans like Deng, Mozzy and Louis Williams, the Lakers are still far from the playoff picture…but win a few too many games. They wind up sending their 2017 first round pick — most likely, a top-10 or even top-5 pick — to the Sixers, missing out on another foundational piece and a top-three selection in a loaded draft.

Dec 2, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward Kobe Bryant (24) celebrates with Lakers guard D’Angelo Russell (1) on the court against the Washington Wizards in the third quarter at Verizon Center. The Lakers won 108-104. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions

Coming off the worst season in franchise history, it’d take a rash of injuries to send this tantalizing young core to an even worse record in 2016-17. In the first year under Walton and looking past Kobe Bryant for the first time, this is the start of a new era for Los Angeles Lakers basketball, and there’s nowhere to go but up from here.

More from Hoops Habit

It won’t always be pretty, and there will be plenty of growing pains throughout the roster. Deng has never had to mentor such an inexperienced group, the young core has never had the opportunities they’ll enjoy this season, Walton has never dealt with a rebuild like this and Mozgov has never been so overpaid while being expected to perform.

But there are plenty of reasons for optimism as well, even if it’ll be tough for the Lakers to even reach the 30-win threshold this season. The 2016-17 campaign is about internal development, with the franchise taken a path it’s rarely traversed: the long and winding road back to prominence through a full-scale rebuild.

Ingram will struggle to gain traction in the Rookie of the Year race coming off the bench for half the season, but he’ll wind up leaving an impression the more he earns playing time. Russell will continue to grow as a player, but perhaps not as an eventual locker room leader.

Clarkson proves himself as a microwave scoring act, but his true destiny as a sixth man begins to become clearer. Zubac struggles to live up to the Summer League hype he conjured, but puts himself in position to overtake Mozgov’s starting job by his second year.

The Lakers make great internal strides, but given the injury-proneness of older guys like Deng and Mozgov and the relative inexperience of the rest of the roster, Los Angeles winds up going 23-59, missing the playoffs by a wide margin and ultimately securing their top-three selection for the loaded 2017 NBA Draft.

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