National Basketball Association

Golden State Warriors: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 6:52 p.m. ET

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The Golden State Warriors added another MVP to their roster and it’s championship or bust now. Here’s their 2016-17 season preview.

October 21, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) and forward Kevin Durant (35) celebrate after Curry made a three-point basket during the second quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

If it were possible, a team that won 73 regular season games last year now faces more pressure entering the new season than perhaps any team in NBA history. No one will pity them for it, but after adding Kevin Durant in free agency, the Golden State Warriors have the biggest targets on their backs of any non-defending champion ever.

Over the course of the 2015-16 season, the Warriors went from being a worldwide phenomenon and League Pass darlings to perhaps the most despised team in the NBA.

Maybe that’s what happens when you win 73 games and fail to win a championship. Maybe that’s what happens when you’re on the short end of a 3-1 Finals collapse at the hands of LeBron James, who won over his harshest critics by bringing Cleveland its first championship in 52 years. Or maybe that’s just what happens when Draymond Green repeatedly kicks people in the groin and still manages to sway KD to sign in the Bay Area.

In any event, the Dubs are now the most reviled group of villains the NBA has to offer, which means the pressure to win — the only known cure for nationwide disdain — is greater than ever before.

Every struggle will be documented. Every ounce of poor body language will be blown up and picked apart. Every lost game, controversial quote and bad headline will threaten to take the focus off of basketball for a team that was one Draymond suspension away from completing the greatest season in NBA history.

In order to wash the taste out of fans’ mouths of being the best NBA team to ever lose the title, the Warriors have more reason to be motivated than ever. The question is, will they let the public scrutiny — and LeBron’s quest to defend his title — derail what should be another championship season?

In order to set proper expectations for the upcoming season, here’s a look at what to expect from the Golden State Warriors in 2016-17.

2015-16 Vitals

73-9, 1st in Pacific Division, 1st in Western Conference
114.9 PPG (1st)/104.1 OPP PPG (19th)
114.5 Offensive Rating (1st)/103.8 Defensive Rating (5th)

Team Leaders
Scoring: Stephen Curry, 30.1 PPG
Rebounding: Draymond Green, 9.5 RPG
Assists: Draymond Green, 7.4 RPG
Steals: Stephen Curry, 2.1 SPG
Blocks: Andrew Bogut, 1.6 BPG

Honors
Most Valuable Player Award: Stephen Curry
Coach of the Year Award: Steve Kerr
All-NBA First Team: Stephen Curry
All-NBA Second Team: Draymond Green
All-NBA Third Team: Klay Thompson
NBA All-Defensive First Team: Draymond Green

Oct 6, 2016; San Jose, CA, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Matt Barnes (22) holds onto a rebound next to Golden State Warriors center Zaza Pachulia (27) in the third quarter at the SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Roster

Ian Clark, PG
Stephen Curry, PG
Kevin Durant, SF
Draymond Green, PF
Andre Iguodala, SF
Damian Jones, C
Shaun Livingston, PG
Kevon Looney, PF
James Michael McAdoo, PF
Patrick McCaw, SG
JaVale McGee, C
Zaza Pachulia, C
Klay Thompson, SG
Anderson Varejao, C
David West, PF

Offseason Additions
Kevin Durant (free agency, Oklahoma City Thunder), Damian Jones (30th overall draft pick, Vanderbilt), Patrick McCaw (38th overall draft pick, UNLV), JaVale McGee (free agency, Dallas Mavericks), Zaza Pachulia (free agency, Dallas Mavericks), David West (free agency, San Antonio Spurs)

Offseason Subtractions
Leandro Barbosa (free agency, Phoenix Suns), Harrison Barnes (free agency, Dallas Mavericks) Andrew Bogut (trade, Dallas Mavericks), Festus Ezeli (free agency, Portland Trail Blazers), Brandon Rush (free agency, Minnesota Timberwolves), Marreese Speights (free agency, Los Angeles Clippers)

Quick Thoughts

In order to make enough room for their summer maneuvering, the Warriors had to shed a considerable amount of depth. The “Strength in Numbers” moniker from last season is no more, and with so many able bodies out the door, it’s no surprise why.

Harrison Barnes got a huge pay day from the Dallas Mavericks. Andrew Bogut had to be traded to the Mavs for nothing. Leandro Barbosa returned home to the Phoenix Suns. Marreese Speights surprisingly joined the Dubs’ Pacific Division rival, Festus Ezeli migrated north to the Portland Trail Blazers and Brandon Rush joined the upstart Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Dubs were able to bring back Ian Clark, James Michael McAdoo and Anderson Varejao, but you’d hardly be blamed for not jumping for joy over those returnees. Luckily, what the Warriors lack in depth, they make up for in pure firepower.

Golden State added two promising rookies in the draft, selecting Damian Jones as a potential long-term solution to the center position and Patrick McCaw as a future Shaun Livingston successor. Nabbing Zaza Pachulia on a $2.9 million salary was the biggest steal of the offseason, David West’s quest for a title added some extra depth and if JaVale McGee were to make a comeback anywhere, it’d be providing rim protection in limited minutes for these Warriors.

Oh, and Golden State also signed Kevin freaking Durant.

Oct 6, 2016; San Jose, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) looks towards an official during a break in the action against the Sacramento Kings in the first quarter at the SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. Adding KD

The NBA has seen NBA super-teams before, but never like this. The Warriors won 73 games last season and have the league’s two-time reigning MVP (plus two other All-NBA players) and still managed to add the 2014 league MVP. Two of the NBA’s three best players now play on the same team, and four of the association’s 20 best players make up 80 percent of the starting five.

This is not Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett joining Paul Pierce in Boston. This is not LeBron James and Chris Bosh taking their talents to South Beach alongside Dwyane Wade, nor is it the King’s second super-team in Cleveland. This is a different animal entirely.

The good news for the Dubs is that although there will be an adjustment process — as there were for each of those aforementioned super-teams — it should be nowhere near as painful.

There will be egos to assuage, and early on, we may see the Warriors’ star-studded roster tripping over themselves trying not to step on anyone’s toes. But for the most part, plugging in Kevin Durant’s skill set into Harrison Barnes’ vacant spot on the wing makes for a pretty seamless transition.

The Splash Brothers are still going to splash. Draymond is still going to be key to the defense and secondary playmaking. But having a shooter and scorer like Durant to feast on all the open looks and driving opportunities Harry B once received is going to make a lethal offense that much more potent.

Seriously, how do you guard this team? Assuming you can stop Curry one-on-one off the dribble, how do you cover the three-point line when Draymond’s the worst three-point shooter of the four at 38.8 percent? How do you stop Thompson and KD from driving when defenses scramble to recover? And how on earth do you possibly contain a Curry-Green or a Curry-KD pick-and-roll with so many shooters flanking the perimeter?

Kevin Durant may be more efficient than ever before with all the open looks he’s going to get, and his new Splash Brothers teammates might enjoy the same advantages now that defenses have to agonize over the lesser of four evils on that end.

Mix in the defensive versatility we saw from KD in the playoffs last year and the Warriors have the scariest starting lineup in the league hands down, not just in terms of raw talent, but in terms of potential fit as well. This is the rich getting richer, only it’s more like Warren Buffet winning the Powerball.

Oct 1, 2016; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Golden State Warriors guard Andre Iguodala (9) with the ball against Toronto Raptors during the second quarter at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. Bench Depth

If there were one Achilles heel for this team, it’d either be rim protection or bench depth. But since Pachulia is a solid positional defender, since Green and KD can both be underrated rim deterrents, and since JaVale McGee made the roster, Golden State’s second unit takes the spotlight here.

Last season, the Warriors owned one of the best benches in the NBA, ranking third in plus/minus at +1.4. They usually protected leads well enough, and there’s no question that without all that capable depth, the Dubs would’ve fallen short of their 73-win mark.

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That bench disappeared in the Finals when they needed it most, however. Head coach Steve Kerr erred on the side of sample size, trusting his reserves to step up as they had all season long. If any team deserved that opportunity, it was the one that set the NBA regular season record for wins, but guys like Festus Ezeli and Leandro Barbosa completely fell off as the series progressed.

Harry B’s 5-for-31 shooting over the last three games of the Finals didn’t help, nor did Draymond’s Game 5 suspension and Andrew Bogut’s series-ending injury. But with Kerr refusing to stay small and shorten his rotation, plus the Cavaliers riding their starters into the ground, Cleveland wound up finding the upper hand.

In 2016-17, the Warriors are prepared to play that same starter-heavy style that Cleveland employed. As long as everyone stays healthy, Golden State’s rotation only needs to be seven or eight players deep by the time they advance to the Finals.

It’s a tremendous physical toll during those high-octane games, which is why affording the starters as much rest as possible during the regular season is important. Enter the Dubs’ shaky second unit, which will be put to the test all year long.

Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston are still the second unit’s most important pieces, but rookies like Pat McCaw or even Damian Jones may have to play larger roles than they’re ready for — one of the burdens of playing for a team expected to win a title this year.

The 36-year-old David West has to prove he’s not washed up. McGee simply has to block some shots and make regular runs to the rim as an alley-oop threat. Kevon Looney has to stay healthy and provide second chance opportunities on the offensive glass. Clark, JMM and Andy V have to build on increased roles off the pine.

It’s a lot to expect from such a hodgepodge of inexperienced youngsters and possibly washed up veterans, but if the Warriors’ second unit can learn to protect leads and give their highly vaunted starting lineup ample opportunity for rest, their contributions won’t be overlooked when the stars carry the Dubs to their second title in three years.

Jun 19, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) handles the ball against Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) during the third quarter in game seven of the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. Warriors vs. Cavaliers, Part III

Speaking of all that premature championship talk, Warriors vs. Cavaliers Part III is pretty much a foregone conclusion in most NBA circles. The Spurs might take a step back with Tim Duncan retired, the Clippers just don’t have enough firepower or history of success to be trusted, and no one from the East can step to the Cavs on their best day.

In 2015, the Cavaliers were missing Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. In 2016, the Dubs fell apart from Draymond’s suspension, Bogut’s series-ending injury and the Curry’s inconsistency tracing back to a knee injury a few weeks prior. In 2017, hopefully we’ll get these two teams at full strength for a best-of-three finale.

More from Hoops Habit

Curry vs. Kyrie. Klay vs. J.R. Smith. KD and LeBron. Draymond vs. Kevin Love. Zaza vs. Tristan Thompson. The matchups are as tantalizing as they’ve ever been, though they’re undoubtedly skewed in Golden State’s favor with Durant joining the equation.

It took perhaps the three best games of LeBron James’ NBA Finals career to bring the Cavs back from the brink last year, but as long as everyone on the Warriors is healthy at the right time of year, the only thing that can prevent them from winning another title is themselves.

Will the Durant addition prove to be as seamless as expected? Will Green be okay with putting up fewer numbers across the board if it means his team is winning? Will Curry, Klay and KD be okay with some nights not being their night when their star teammates are heating up? Can Kerr manage this much talent and these many egos?

When the playoffs begin, the Dubs will have the most dangerous seven- or eight-man core in the league. It’s just a matter of A) getting there healthy and B) not beating themselves the way they did in 2016. The path toward redemption starts Tuesday night, and it likely ends with a third Finals matchup against the same Cavs team that humbled the greatest regular season team of all time.

September 26, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23), forward Kevin Durant (35), and guard Klay Thompson (11) pose for a photo with their Olympic gold medals from the 2016 Rio Olympics during media day at the Warriors Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Best-Case Scenario

Kevin Durant fits in as perfectly as he has during the preseason, making for a seamless super-team transition. He, Curry, Thompson and Green find the perfect balance to share the load, and their small-ball Lineup of Death is even more terrifying than it was last season.

The Dubs lead the league in offensive rating by a historic margin, while still managing to keep a top-five defensive rating as well. Green keeps his attitude in check, fueled by the joy of playing for the most entertaining and dangerous team of his young career.

Either Curry or KD wins MVP, keeping it in the Bay for the third straight season. The Dubs’ second unit is more prepared than given credit for, helping them breeze to around 70 wins and home-court throughout the playoffs. In Part III of Warriors vs. Cavs, Golden State avenges last year’s humiliating collapse with a convincing sweep in the Finals — prompting KD and Curry to quickly re-sign in free agency and keep this unstoppable train moving.

Worst-Case Scenario

With so many stars trying to make sure everyone is getting enough looks on offense, the Warriors start thinking less about playing good basketball and more about getting everyone enough touches. The offense never really comes together and the defense suffers without Bogut protecting the rim.

As the Dubs get off to an underwhelming start, Draymond Green’s frustration with a slightly lesser role becomes a problem in the locker room, gaining national attention after last season’s costly suspension and his controversial summer.

With negative headlines swirling, the Dubs finish with the second or third seed in the West and get knocked off by an experienced Spurs team or a motivated Clippers team in the second round of the playoffs — putting Kevin Durant’s free agency decision in doubt.

Oct 19, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) is congratulated by guard Stephen Curry (30) during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers at Valley View Casino Center. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions

The Golden State Warriors have some weaknesses, particularly when it comes to rim protection and bench depth. But anyone thinking those flaws will come back to haunt the Dubs in any substantial way is probably due for a reality check once four of the game’s 20 best players start getting comfortable around each other.

On the offensive end, the Warriors are almost guaranteed to lead the league in offensive rating and efficiency. On the defensive end, they’ll be passable at worst. There’s just too much talent here to fail.

The Warriors aren’t going to win 73 or 74 games this season, nor should they try to. The priority will be keeping the NBA’s best seven-man core healthy for a redemption run at the title, and with Golden State’s underwhelming bench unit thrust into a such a significant role, this team will almost certainly lose more games in 2016-17.

However, as long as the stars’ minutes are managed properly, it’s hard to see this team falling short of a championship, even in their first season together. Golden State should win about 65 games, cruise to the No. 1 seed in the West and roll through the conference to their third straight Finals appearance.

With everyone healthy, the Warriors have a decisive advantage against Cleveland in the championship series. Curry silences his critics after a lackluster 2016 Finals, Klay Thompson exorcises his championship demons, Green redeems himself simply by avoiding kicking dudes in the nards, and Kevin Durant avenges his own 2012 NBA Finals defeat against LeBron with a quick five-game victory over the Cavs.

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