National Basketball Association

First among equals: Is Okafor or Towns the better can't-miss No. 1 pick?

Published Jun. 9, 2015 1:41 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

Reid Forgrave

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a tough choice on June 25.

When commissioner Adam Silver strides to the podium at the NBA Draft in Brooklyn, it’s almost certain he’ll call the name of one of two near-7-footers with strikingly different games: Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns or Duke’s Jahlil Okafor.

In a league starved for skilled big men, these two 19-year-olds offer a rare opportunity for a struggling NBA franchise.

Assuming they don’t take either of the two top point guards in this draft – D’Angelo Russell of Ohio State or former SMU commit Emmanuel Mudiay, who played last season in China – the Timberwolves and the Los Angeles Lakers, the team picking second, can choose one of two big men as a potential franchise cornerstone for years to come. The last time two centers went one-two in the NBA Draft (and yes, I know Towns projects as more of a stretch four)? In 2004, when Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor were drafted.

So who should the Timberwolves take?

The consensus No. 1 pick in mock drafts and in the media echo chamber seems to be Towns.

And that would be a mistake.

Not a huge mistake. This isn’t arguing for Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning, or injury-prone Greg Oden over Kevin Durant – the type of personnel decisions that are mocked for decades. Towns’ ceiling is sky-high, too, and the great thing about this draft is that if you have a top-five pick, it’ll be hard to really screw up.

But I’m going to share something one college head coach who recruited Okafor told me recently, which sums up my own view perfectly.

“To me, it’s easy,” the coach told me. “Don’t try to over-figure out this thing. Okafor is why you pick No. 1.”

For most of the past two years, that was pretty much a consensus in the basketball community. It wasn’t an Andrew Wiggins-like consensus, where the NBA was awaiting the arrival of its Next Big Thing – though I might remind you that before last year’s draft, there was plenty of debate on whether the top pick ought to be Wiggins, Jabari Parker or Joel Embiid. But Okafor has been on the radar of top talent evaluators since he was in middle school, and he’s won at every level since, displaying a skilled, nuanced post game we haven’t seen from a teenage big man in a generation, maybe longer.

And yet, as Okafor’s national title season as Duke wore on, questions about his game bubbled up. How much of a problem would his struggles at the free-throw line – 51 percent in his freshman season at Duke – become in the pros? Would his defense improve, from his aggressiveness to his pick-and-roll coverage? Would he keep his big-boned body in shape?

Basically, we started nitpicking at the guy we’ve loved for a long while.

Meanwhile, Towns’ game exploded. He showed elite defensive skills and is clearly a better post defender than Okafor. Kentucky head coach John Calipari’s platoon system highlighted Towns’ out-of-this-world efficiency numbers; some advanced statistics called him one of the top college basketball players in the past decade. Towns has always been an excellent shooter – look at his 81.3 percent rate from the free-throw line at Kentucky – but Calipari forced him to focus on his inside game, much to his benefit. Towns prides himself on his outside shooting, but he attempted only eight three-pointers all season. One of the primary questions about his game – Is he as assertive and aggressive in the post as he needs to be? – disappeared under Calipari.

Towns did sometimes get into foul trouble at Kentucky despite limited minutes, whether it was the result of reaching in or not being in the right position. But those sort of anticipatory skills on defense don’t rise near the level of red flag for NBA scouts.

All this has added up to the perception that the Timberwolves will surely pick Towns on June 25.

Which, as I said earlier, would be a small and excusable mistake.

“You’re not wrong,” Ryan Blake, the NBA director of scouting operations, told me. “Nobody is going to be wrong in this draft because nobody knows. You gotta go with your instinct. What I like about this draft is it’s sharing the wealth.”

OK, fine: I guess Blake is copping out, and so am I. Hedging our bets, I suppose. Though I think Okafor is the obvious pick, and someone who has a shot to become a transcendent offensive big man in a league that’s been trending away from that style of play, I’m not going to stomp my feet if Towns is the first name called on draft night. Hell, even if the Lakers end up taking Russell or Mudiay at No. 2, I’m not sure that’s a boneheaded move. All four of these players have an excellent shot at becoming All-Stars, and one college coach close to Mudiay told me he’s a “can’t miss,” Jason Kidd-like player and that when all the smoke clears Mudiay will be seen as the best player in this draft.

“Part of me thinks it’s just luck,” Sean Ford, the men’s national team director for USA Basketball, told me about the decision between Okafor and Towns. “You don’t know who is going to ultimately be better. The outlier things that can have an impact are never going to be known totally. You don’t know who is going to stay healthiest the longest, who their teammates are, who’s the best friend they’re following, how much pressure there is on them to be really good and carry their team. You never know how they’re going to develop. They’re incredibly even at this point. You don’t know how the separation is going to take place.”

Ford has been tracking Okafor’s development since Okafor was in eighth grade. What makes the former Blue Devil a magnificent offensive post player isn’t simply his well-honed footwork, or his vast offensive arsenal, or his soft touch near the basket, or his passing ability from the high and the low post.

It’s a matter of Okafor’s offense being based on what the defense gives him, Ford said. Some players do whatever it is they plan to do offensively, no matter what the defense is giving them. Okafor’s offensive IQ, Ford said, actually makes him quicker because he’s brilliant at feeling the defender in his back and making a split-second – and correct – decision.

Every draft pick is a gamble, and there’s no bigger gamble than when you’re picking No. 1. Remember: Greg Oden was seen as a possible superstar when he was taken over Kevin Durant. I don’t see the Okafor/Towns decision being looked at that way in 10 years; both feel like solid picks now who could turn into superstars down the road.

But another college coach who knows Okafor well – and who agrees with me that he ought to go No. 1 – has a much stronger take.

“Any team that doesn’t take Jah first will regret it, and their front office people will be fired soon,” the coach texted me.

Email Reid Forgrave at reidforgrave@gmail.com, or follow him on Twitter @reidforgrave.

share

Get more from National Basketball Association Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

National Basketball Association