National Basketball Association

Chicago Bulls: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The Chicago Bulls missed the playoffs in 2015-16, the first time in seven years they had been home for the postseason. After a roster makeover, what’s next?

After a bevy of offseason changes, Jimmy Butler (21) is the Chicago Bulls’ new leading man while Taj Gibson (22) is the only other veteran holdover. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Bulls under coach Tom Thibodeau reached their zenith in his very first season at the helm. Behind MVP Derrick Rose, the Bulls won 62 games, finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference and reached the conference finals before losing to the Big Three-led Miami Heat.

Chicago had the best record in the East again in 2011-12, but the Bulls title hopes collapsed along with Rose, who went down with a torn ACL in Game 1 of the first-round series with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Thibodeau was let go after a second-round exit in 2014-15 and Fred Hoiberg, a successful collegiate coach at Iowa State and a former Bull as a player, was brought in.

Chicago stumbled to a 42-40 record in Hoiberg’s NBA coaching debut, finishing two games behind the eighth-place Detroit Pistons and missing the postseason for the first time since 2008.

And over the summer, general manager Gar Forman swept the decks.

He traded Rose along with Justin Holiday and a 2017 second-round pick to the New York Knicks before the draft, getting back Robin Lopez, Jerian Grant and Jose Calderon (who was later flipped to the Los Angeles Lakers).

Joakim Noah, a former Defensive Player of the Year who missed all but 29 games with a shoulder injury, walked away in free agency to join Rose in New York. Pau Gasol, an All-Star in each of his two years with the Bulls, headed to the San Antonio Spurs after opting out of his deal.

The headline-making deals weren’t done. The Bulls signed former All-Star Rajon Rondo to replace Rose at the point guard spot and brought back Chicago native Dwyane Wade as a free agent.

In the process, the Bulls became very much Jimmy Butler‘s team. The 2014-15 Most Improved Player picked up his second straight All-Star bid last season to go with his third consecutive All-Defensive nod.

He was also an Olympian, part of the gold-medal winning USA Basketball contingent.

Butler clashed at times with Hoiberg last season, but now he’s the face of the franchise, with veterans Rondo and Wade saying all the right things about being willing to play supporting roles.

The surprise wasn’t that Chicago’s defense slipped from 11th in efficiency under the defensive-centric Thibodeau to 15th under the more offensive-minded Hoiberg.

No, the shocker was that an offense that was 11th in Offensive Rating under Thibodeau collaposed to 23rd under Hoiberg, despite improving from 23rd to 15th in pace.

Chicago was third in the league in three-point shooting at 37.1 percent, but it didn’t do them a lot of good as the Bulls combined that with the seventh-fewest attempts from long range in the NBA.

Three-point threat Mike Dunleavy is also gone, as is uber-efficient E’Twaun Moore.

Rondo and, in particular, Wade are not going to come in and become outside-shooting threats, leaving one to wonder where the spacing in this offense will come from.

Of course, that goes with questions about where the rebounds will come from and how this roster can come together into something coherent, much less cohesive.

Thibodeau may have been a thorn in the side of the front office, but after just one season, his tenure is starting to look an awful lot like the good old days.

Doug McDermott started to settle in as a deep threat for the Chicago Bulls in 2015-16, but will do so this season with a new number on his chest after giving up No. 3 to newly acquired Dwyane Wade. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Roster

Jimmy Butler, G-F
Isaiah Canaan, G
Spencer Dinwiddle, G
Christian Felicio, F-C
Taj Gibson, F
Jerian Grant, G
Robin Lopez, C
Doug McDermott, F
Nikola Mirotic, F
Bobby Portis, F
Rajon Rondo, G
Tony Snell, F
Denzel Valentine, G
Dwyane Wade, G
Paul Zipser, F

Offseason Additions

Offseason Departures

Quick Thoughts

The biggest question for the Chicago Bulls is where the shooting will come from. Of the guards and wings on the roster, none jumps off the page as a shooter.

Jimmy Butler scored 20.9 points per game in 67 games last season, but hit just 31.2 percent from long range. Dwyane Wade, signed as a free agent, was a dismal 7-for-44 last season for the Miami Heat (15.9 percent) and is only a 28.4 percent career shooter from deep.

Rajon Rondo did hit a career-best 36.5 percent for the Sacramento Kings last season, improving–a relative term here–his career mark to 28.9 percent.

Instead, it may be the stretch bigs who have to save the Bulls from beyond the arc. Doug McDermott hit 42.5 percent from outside the arc last season–a team best among qualifiers–and Nikola Mirotic knocked down 39 percent.

Bobby Portis, the club’s 2015 first-round pick, knocked down 41.7 percent (10-for-24) in Summer League play in Las Vegas.

But gone are E’Twaun Moore (45.2 percent on 104 attempts) and Mike Dunleavy (39.4 percent on 99 shots from deep).

Pau Gasol took his 11 rebounds a game with him to the San Antonio Spurs, while newly acquired center Robin Lopez averaged 7.3 per game in 82 starts for the New York Knicks.

Throw in the odd combination of aging vets (Wade and Rondo are entering their 14th and 11th seasons, respectively) and young kids (eight players on the current roster have two years or less NBA experience), and it’s a collection of parts that doesn’t seem to be a natural fit at first glance.

All-Star Jimmy Butler and head coach Fred Hoiberg weren’t always on the same page in 2015-16. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. Jimmy Butler, Fred Hoiberg Take Center Stage

The marriage between All-Star Jimmy Butler and head coach Fred Hoiberg hit the rocks in mid-December, when Butler called out the coach for being too low-key after a four-overtime loss to the Detroit Pistons at the United Center.

Butler roasted Hoiberg for not being tough enough on the team, himself included, as reported by Comcast Sports Net Chicago.

“I believe in the guys in this locker room, yeah, but I also believe that we probably have to be coached a lot harder at times.

“I know Fred is a laid-back guy and I respect him for that, but when guys aren’t doing what they’re supposed to do, you gotta get on guys, myself included. You gotta do what you’re supposed to do when you’re out there playing basketball.

“We weren’t doing what we’re supposed to be doing, what we wrote on that board before the game. Nobody spoke up. I did, but probably not enough times. I think he has to hold everybody accountable, from the No. 1 player all the way down. Everyone has to do their job.”

It’s hard to misinterpret that message. Butler had grown into a star under the gruff Tom Thibodeau, who might be a polar opposite of Hoiberg in courtside demeanor.

After the NBA Draft, Hoiberg said at a press conference that he and Butler had been speaking a lot during the offseason (per ESPN.com), including a sitdown in Los Angeles.

“Being able to sit with him face-to-face, I talked to him on the phone two days ago, he’s in a great frame of mind right now. … (H)e talked about coming out and spending a couple days with our young guys (in the Las Vegas Summer League). It’s important to be around our young guys.

“Jimmy, he’s in a very good frame of mind right now.”

Hoiberg insists he has no problem coaching Butler when asked.

“Absolutely I can.”

Butler is the new leading man for the Bulls after the offseason departures of Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol, even with veterans Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade on board.

There were rumblings that Butler was at odds at times with Rose, Noah and Gasol. Butler wouldn’t take the bait when asked about that situation by CSN Chicago.

“I think man, it was a lot of mixes of everything. We weren’t winning games we wanted to win. We were in and out of the lineup, so many guys. I don’t wanna use any excuses but that had something to do with it.

“We have a whole new team, we gotta move forward. I’m happy for those new guys, I want them to be successful on their new team.”

With a lot of new faces and Butler being presented as the franchise’s new face, Hoiberg has a lot of incentive to try and make it work.

After all, in the NBA, coaches usually go long before players do.

Rajon Rondo, left, and Dwyane Wade are now teammates with the Chicago Bulls. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. The Old Couple Takes The Stage

If the Chicago Bulls were looking for additions with star power, they found them in Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo.

Between the two, there are 17 All-Star selections, nine All-NBA berths, seven All-Defensive nods and four NBA titles.

Rondo will be 31 in February and is entering his 11th season after putting up the best numbers he’s had since before tearing his ACL in January 2013.

He put up 11.9 points, an NBA-best 11.7 assists, 6.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals in 35.2 minutes per game for the Sacramento Kings last season, shooting .454/.365/.580 in 72 games.

Wade, meanwhile, averaged 19.0 points, 4.6 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.1 steals in 30.5 minutes a game for the Miami Heat, shooting .456/.159/.793 in 74 games.

Wade’s return to his hometown made huge headlines, but Wade went out of his way to make sure everyone knows his role coming in (per USA Today).

“It’s Jimmy’s team (referring to Jimmy Butler). Jimmy, Wade and then whatever after that.”

Rondo wasn’t quite as deferential when introduced to the Chicago press. He’s also aware of the baggage that accompanies him to the United Center, per CSN Chicago.

“A lot is perception. Not to knock or anything, you make the bed, you lay in it. As you get to know me–and you’ll get to know me a little bit more and coach (Fred) Hoiberg will get to know me–we’ll see from there. I think I have a clean slate here and these guys are looking forward and I’m just as thrilled to be here.”

He also mentioned the Bulls having “three alphas” during that press conference (per ESPN.com).

“Jimmy’s the youngest, he’s the engine here. It’ll be Jimmy, Wade and then it will be a pecking order. The main thing is that we have three alphas. There will be three alphas on the team. Just trying to mesh together and try to make sure we are doing the best thing for the team.”

Wade turns 35 in January and has nearly 37,000 minutes on his NBA odometer between the regular season and the playoffs.

But as long as the old alphas remember that it’s the young dog who is the largest canine on the porch, Chicago will be OK and might even benefit from having so much experience … and winning … in the locker room.

Denzel Valentine showed some chops in Las Vegas Summer League play this summer, hitting an overtime game-winner to lead the Chicago Bulls to the circuit’s championship. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. The Kids Are Coming

For as odd as the Chicago Bulls’ roster appears to be on paper, there are reasons for optimism.

Eight of those players enter 2016-17 with two years’ experience or less and many of those kids were part of a Summer League championship run in Las Vegas in July.

Any discussion of Summer League play comes with the gigantic asterisk that says, “Yes, but it was Summer League.”

Still, 2015 first-round pick Bobby Portis played big, averaging 17.3 points and 9.4 rebounds on .490/.417/.900 shooting.

Brazilian big man Christiano Felicio did his job extraordinarily well, hitting 75 percent of his shots and averaging 11.4 points and 6.3 rebounds in just 22.9 minutes a game in Vegas.

Young guards Jerian Grant (a 2015 first-rounder acquired from the New York Knicks in the Derrick Rose deal) and Denzel Valentine (Chicago’s 2016 first-round selection) didn’t shoot particularly well in Las Vegas.

Grant put up a .349/.220/.846 slash line while Valentine checked in at .352/.255/.778.

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But both were responsible for double figure points per game and combined to average 6.6 assists a game in an environment where many players are trying to shoot their way onto rosters.

Doug McDermott made a ton of progress in his second NBA season, averaging 9.4 points in 23.0 minutes per game. Hit shooting improved markedly, as well, from .402/.317/.667 to .452/.425/.857.

His defensive woes are well-documented. That 112 Defensive Rating, per Basketball-Reference.com, and a minus-2.8 defensive box plus/minus reinforce that.

Nikola Mirotic will be 26 in February, so he’s a kid only in terms of his NBA resume, which is two seasons long.

He’s a prototype stretch-4 who can score a little (11.8 points in 24.9 minutes per game), rebound a little (5.5 per game) and hit the deep ball (39 percent on a team-high 135 makes).

On a team where McDermott is about the only player who plays the 1, 2 or 3 with any real shooting range, Mirotic’s long-range shooting may be the difference between the Bulls having any sort of offensive spacing or not.

While 2016-17 is looking like a transitional season for the Chicago Bulls, better times may be ahead soon.

Young Bobby Portis, right, could be poised for a breakout in 2016-17. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Best Case Scenario

Jimmy Butler’s transformation into a superstar completes itself as the young wing flirts with a 25-point-per-game average while maturing into the unquestioned leader of the Chicago Bulls.

Veterans Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo make valuable contributions on and off the court and Bobby Portis shows that those gaudy per-36 minute numbers as a rookie (14.2 points, 11.0 rebounds) weren’t a fluke as he seizes control of the power forward spot.

Robin Lopez provides the grit, reminding the NBA that he was the league’s most prolific offensive rebounder with the Portland Trail Blazers just two seasons ago in 2013-14, and provides the rim protection lost when Pau Gasol bolted.

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The Bulls get more comfortable with the Fred Hoiberg way of doing things and challenge for a top-four spot in the East.

Worst Case Scenario

Dwyane Wade has many more nights looking like an old Dwyane Wade than he does the D-Wade of old, while Rajon Rondo continues his practice of padding stats and being hard to get along with.

Butler struggles with the pressure of being the lead guy, Hoiberg doesn’t make it to the All-Star break and the disjointed club tumbles into the bottom tier of the Eastern Conference.

Nikola Mirotic was the Chicago Bulls’ most prolific deep threat last season. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

Gar Forman’s strategy of adding fading stars who are awkward fits shockingly doesn’t pay off for the Chicago Bulls, who fall below the .500 mark and finish near the bottom of what looks to be a mosh pit of mediocre among a group of nine or 10 teams in the middle of the East.

Because Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade do a lot of their scoring from the same areas of the floor, spacing and offensive flow will be a constant struggle. Because none of Chicago’s guards shoots the ball from deep particularly well, defenses will be able to clog driving lanes readily.