National Basketball Association

Charlotte Hornets: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The Charlotte Hornets are coming off their best season since the NBA returned to the Queen City in 2004, but some key losses in free agency leave questions about the club’s ability to remain relevant in the Eastern Conference.

The arrival of Nicolas Batum (5) and the breakout campaign of Kemba Walker (15) helped Steve Clifford steer the Charlotte Hornets to 48 wins, the franchise’s best record since 1999-2000. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

The Charlotte Hornets returned to the NBA Playoffs last season for the first time since Paul Silas‘ 2001-02 club reached the second round before departing for New Orleans.

OK, so the reincarnated Charlotte franchise made the postseason in both 2010 and 2014 as the Bobcats, but last season’s 48-34 campaign was the club’s best since the NBA returned to Charlotte in 2004.

It was the franchise’s best record since the original Hornets were 49-33 in 1999-2000, but after a seven-game loss to the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs, the roster has undergone some dramatic changes.

Gone are sixth man extraordinaire Jeremy Lin, center Al Jefferson and shooting guard Courtney Lee, acquired from the Memphis Grizzlies during the All-Star break.

Those were three of the five rotation players that entered free agency in July and even with the spike in the salary cap, the Hornets were never going to be able to keep them all.

So instead, Charlotte opted to give Nicolas Batum a five-year, $120 million deal after the wing helped free up Kemba Walker to have a breakout season in 2015-16 and retained combo forward Marvin Williams for four years and $54 million.

The Hornets brought back Ramon Sessions to replace Lin as the backup at point guard and took a one-year, $5 million roll of the dice on former All-Star big man Roy Hibbert.

The one move that had many scratching their heads was the decision to trade the rights to No. 22 overall pick Malachi Richardson to the Sacramento Kings in exchange for aging shooting guard Marco Belinelli, who shot a career-worst 30.6 percent from deep last season.

To be clear, if Belinelli isn’t making shots from behind the arc, he’s not providing much else of value to a club. The Kings gave him 24.6 minutes per game last season and Belinelli averaged 10.2 points, 1.9 assists and 1.7 rebounds on .386/.306/.833 shooting.

Hibbert, meanwhile, is expected to battle with incumbent Cody Zeller for the starting job in the middle.

A wild card for the Hornets is the healthy return of wing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who missed all but seven games last season due to a dislocated shoulder that he injured twice–once in the preseason and again on Feb. 10, less than two weeks after he made his delayed season debut.

Steve Clifford took the Bobcats to the playoffs two seasons ago on the back of a gritty defense and a pound-the-ball-inside offensive approach that featured heavy doses of Jefferson.

But the head coach has done a nice job of adapting to the changing trends in the NBA, putting several position-less looks on the floor last season, deploying Batum as a point forward and letting Walker carry the bulk of the offensive burden after being freed from much of the playmaking duties.

There is a feeling that Charlotte will take a step back this season, but this team has defied the odds before under Clifford, making the postseason in 2014 after posting 28 wins combined the previous two seasons.

Hibbert is a low-risk, high-reward acquisition who could do wonders for the club’s interior defense if he’s even close to his peak form with the Indiana Pacers–less than two seasons ago.

So Charlotte is a bit of a wild card itself heading into 2016-17. There are lots of very nice pieces, but not without some questions as to how it all fits together.

2015-16 Vitals

48-34, 3rd Southwest Division, 6th Eastern Conference
103.4 PPG (11th)/100.7 OPPS (9th)
107.1 Offensive Rating (9th)/104.3 Defensive Rating (8th)

Team Leaders (minimum 42 games)
Scoring: Kemba Walker 20.9 PPG
Rebounding: Al Jefferson/Marvin Williams 6.4 RPG
Assists: Nicolas Batum 5.8 APG
Steals: Kemba Walker 1.6 SPG
Blocks: Marvin Williams 1.0 BPG

Honors
None

Marvin Williams developed into a legitimate stretch-4 in 2015-16, shooting a career-best 40.2 percent from three-point range and averaging 11.7 points and a career-high 6.4 rebounds per game. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports

Roster

Andrew Andrews, G
Nicolas Batum, G-F
Marco Belinelli, G-F
Perry Ellis, F
Treveon Graham, G-F
Aaron Harrison, G
Spencer Hawes, F-C
Roy Hibbert, C
Frank Kaminsky, C
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, F
Jeremy Lamb, G
Brian Roberts, G
Ramon Sessions, G
Rasheed Sulaimon, G
Mike Tobey, C
Kemba Walker, G
Marvin Williams, F
Christian Wood, F
Cody Zeller, F-C

Offseason Additions

Offseason Departures

Quick Thoughts

The Charlotte Hornets retained Nicolas Batum with a near-max deal. What the wing player lacks in shooting ability, he makes up for with playmaking and he is a long (6-foot-8, 200 pounds) presence on the perimeter defensively.

The transition away from the Al Jefferson-centric offensive attack began last season as the big man missed 35 games with knee and calf ailments. Training camp and the preseason will determine whether Cody Zeller keeps the starting center job or if newcomer Roy Hibbard can claim it.

The rest of the lineup appears to be set, with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ostensibly healthy and back at the small forward spot, Marvin Williams returning to his role as a stretch-4 after signing a four-year deal to remain in Charlotte and emerging star Kemba Walker at the point guard spot.

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Depth on the perimeter is where the Hornets will be tested, with the losses of Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee.

The club brought back Ramon Sessions, who played for Charlotte from 2012-14 and had the best scoring average of his career at 14.4 points per game as a reserve for the then-Bobcats in 2012-13.

Brian Roberts also returned to the Hornets after a brief absence. He was part of the trade that brought Lee from the Memphis Grizzlies in February, going to the Miami Heat, and was traded to the Portland Trail Blazers two days later and finished the season there.

The trade for Marco Belinelli brings another warm body to the perimeter and the wait for Jeremy Lamb to emerge as a consistent rotation-level performer enters its fifth season after he averaged 8.8 points in 18.6 minutes per game last season while shooting just 30.9 percent from long range.

If there is an Achilles heel to this roster, it is that lack of quality depth at the 1, 2 and 3 spots coupled with the injury histories of the three starters there, particularly Kidd-Gilchrist, who has missed 20, 27 and 75 games in the last three seasons.

Jan 29, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (14) looks to pass around Portland Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum (3) during the first quarter at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. Important Season For Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist arrived to training camp last fall with a four-year, $52 million extension and a rebuilt jump shot, with big things expected from the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft.

But 13 minutes into his first preseason game, Kidd-Gilchrist went down with a torn labrum in his right shoulder, injured when fouled by Tobias Harris while coming off a screen.

He was expected to miss six months, with a possible return in late March or early April, but surprisingly returned to the lineup in late January.

MKG played in seven games before tearing the labrum again Feb. 10 against the Indiana Pacers when he fell to the floor and had Pacers center Ian Mahinmi land on him.

The retooled shot had been working before he was re-injured. Kidd-Gilchrist was finishing 65.7 percent of his shots at the rim, went 3-for-6 from 16 feet out to the three-point arc and hit 3-of-7 from the great beyond after not attempting a three-ball in 55 games in 2014-15.

The problem with Kidd-Gilchrist has been a penchant for getting hurt. He missed 20 games in 2013-14 with a broken hand, was out for 27 games with a hamstring injury in 2014-15 and then had last season wrecked by the balky shoulder.

It’s taken some of the shine off a player who has shown flashes of being an elite perimeter defender. In 202 NBA games, he has 5.6 defensive win shares to just 4.0 of the offensive variety, an unusual split for a player early in his career.

You can see from this video from a game against the Portland Trail Blazers last January that marked his return that Kidd-Gilchrist’s shooting form was markedly improved.

He dropped 13 points in that game, had 19 two nights later in a win against the Los Angeles Lakers and scored 20 points on 7-of-14 shooting, including 1-of-2 from distance, in a win over the Chicago Bulls, the last full game before his shoulder was wrecked again.

After playing in just seven games, the return of Kidd-Gilchrist is akin to getting a new player in free agency. Since his extension kicks in this season, it’s an even more apt comparison.

The Hornets won 48 games without much of a contribution from Kidd-Gilchrist, who has already shown the ability to be a defensive force on the wing. If they can get some actual offense from him as well, that will go a long way toward defining where the retooled club finishes in 2016-17.

Roy Hibbert’s career changed in February 2014. Can he get back on track in Charlotte? Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. Can Roy Hibbert’s Career Be Salvaged?

If you ever wanted to climb inside the sometimes delicate psyche of a professional athlete, the case study provided by the career of Roy Hibbert is a fascinating one.

Hibbert was coming off his second All-Star Game appearance in three years in February 2014 when the Indiana Pacers took a flyer on former All-Star Andrew Bynum for depth behind Hibbert at the center spot.

Bynum was a shell of his former self, having missed all of 2012-13 with a knee injury and washing out with the Cleveland Cavaliers after playing in just 24 games.

Bynum had been signed on Feb. 1, 2014, but didn’t make his debut for Indiana until March 11, 2014, scoring eight points with 10 rebounds in just 16 minutes of a win over the Boston Celtics.

Four days later, Bynum got 20 minutes and scored 15 points with nine boards while going just 6-for-18 from the floor in a road win over the Detroit Pistons.

And therein, reportedly, was the problem for Hibbert. Coach Frank Vogel called plays for Bynum, with the big man getting 18 shots in 20 minutes.

At that point, Hibbert had played 439 regular-season games for the Pacers and had gotten as many as 18 shots up just 12 times, per Basketball-Reference.com.

According to Steve Aschburner of NBA.com, the arrival of Bynum bothered Hibbert … a lot.

It cannot be a coincidence that the very next night, with Bynum sidelined with fluid on his bad right knee, Hibbert took a career-high 26 shots–making just nine–and the Pacers, the No. 1 team in the Eastern Conference, lost to the moribund Philadelphia 76ers.

From the time Bynum signed through the end of the 2013-14 season, Hibbert shot just 40.6 percent in 36 games and averaged 9.0 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks. Prior to that, his number in 2013-14 were 12.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks on 46.3 percent shooting.

The thing is that Hibbert didn’t really get over it, not after Bynum left and not after Hibbert went to the Lakers — and wore Bynum’s old jersey number.

In 2014-15, Hibbert averaged 10.6 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in 25.3 minutes a game and shot 44.6 percent.

Last season, after the Pacers dumped his $15 million salary on the Lakers for a future second-round pick, those numbers were 5.9 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in 23.2 minutes on 44.3 percent shooting.

Charlotte is Hibbert’s third team in three seasons, with the Hornets giving the veteran a one-year, $5 million prove-it deal.

The fall for Hibbert has been as spectacular as any ever witnessed in the NBA and it speaks to just how important confidence and security can be to performance.

At media day on Monday, coach Steve Clifford said Hibbert is in the mix to start at center along with incumbent Cody Zeller, per ESPN.com.

A key in Hibbert’s decision to come to Charlotte was to pair with fellow Georgetown alum Patrick Ewing, a Hornets assistant coach and a mentor of Hibbert’s.

The advantage Hibbert has is that he can protect the rim. Al Jefferson was never a shot-blocker and when Charlotte non-tendered Bismack Biyombo in the summer of 2015, the Hornets were left without a rim presence.

Marvin Williams led the team with one block per game while Zeller posted 63 blocks in 73 games.

Using the team approach, the Hornets were still 12th in the NBA in blocked shots, but Hibbert could provide Charlotte with the real rim protector they have lacked.

If his head is right.

Kemba Walker had a career year in 2015-16. What does he have in store for an encore? Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. What Does Kemba Walker Do For An Encore?

Kemba Walker had been a solid performer in his first four NBA seasons, averaging 17 points per game in each of the 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons.

The problem with Walker had been efficiency. Aside from a 42.3 percent shooting mark in his second season, Walker was a less than 40 percent career shooter heading into last season and his three-point shooting was a less than sterling 31.8 percent.

He had served as the Hornets’ second scoring option behind Al Jefferson, but there were concerns that at the age of 25, what you saw was what you had with Walker.

The arrival of Nicolas Batum in 2015 changed all of that.

Walker had a playmaker on the floor with him, which freed him to do more of the things that made him a national sensation in 2011, when he put the Connecticut Huskies on his back and carried them to an unlikely NCAA title.

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Walker made two huge steps forward in his efficiency as a shooter in 2015-16. He dramatically improved at the rim and from three-point range.

Walker converted 59.8 of his attempts at the rim, which made up 25 percent of his 1,331 shots. That was up from a 49.2 percent mark the previous season and a career percentage of 51.9 entering last year.

He also took a career-high 490 attempts from deep and converted 37.1 percent of them, far and away a career-best.

His field goal percentage was a career-high 42.7 percent and he topped 20 points per game for the first time, dropping in an average of 20.9 a night while still averaging 5.2 assists.

Listed at 6-foot-1 and a slight 172 pounds, Walker is somewhat reminiscent of recently minted Hall of Famer Allen Iverson in that he is small but fearless when taking the ball down the lane.

With Jefferson now with the Indiana Pacers, the Hornets are Walker’s team. He handled the transition to that No. 1 role well last season and it will be interesting to see how Walker responds with the changing faces around him.

The one face that didn’t change, though, is Batum, who led the club with 5.8 assists per game last season.

Batum’s skill as a facilitator and ability to run the offense frees up Walker to be the daring freelancer he functions best as and Steve Clifford gave Walker the green light last season to do his thing, with terrific results.

The Hornets won 48 games last season despite missing Jefferson for almost half the season based largely on the production Walker was able to provide.

Charlotte will need more of the same to have any chance of getting a second straight playoff appearance for the first time since the 2004 reboot of the club.

Steve Clifford has shown adaptability and creativity during his tenure with the Charlotte Hornets. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Best Case Scenario

The losses of Jeremy Lin, Al Jefferson and Courtney Lee are but a blip on the radar as Kemba Walker storms his way to his first All-Star appearance.

Walker leads a cast of characters that includes a revived Roy Hibbert. His reunion with mentor Patrick Ewing brings back the Hibbert of old, as the big man blocks 2.5 shots a game to anchor a stingy Charlotte defense that features a healthy Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as a perimeter stopper.

Marvin Williams continues to provide steady play and floor spacing at the 4 spot and the bench depth emerges as Frank Kaminsky and Cody Zeller provide solid frontcourt minutes, while Ramon Sessions thrives in a backup combo guard role.

The Hornets flirt with 50 wins and settle into the top four of the Eastern Conference safely.

Worst Case Scenario

The starters build leads and the bench gives them away. It’s a theme that dooms the Hornets throughout 2016-17 as their depth was ravaged during the offseason exodus.

Kidd-Gilchrist is effective when healthy, which isn’t often enough to make a significant difference, and the Roy Hibbert reclamation project falls flat as the big man struggles to fend off Spencer Hawes and Kaminsky for scrap minutes up front.

Williams and Walker regress to the mean after breakout shooting seasons and Charlotte struggled to approach the .500 mark as they plummet down the pecking order in the East.

Cody Zeller retained the starting center job last season even after Al Jefferson returned from injury. Can he hold onto the position this season? Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

There just a lot of “if” coming off this roster heading into 2016-17, particularly with regard to the reserves.

Ramon Sessions and Marco Belinelli could struggle to be consistent performers in the backup roles in the backcourt, while Jeremy Lamb is more enigma than answer at this point in his career.

Up front, Roy Hibbert could be a boon if his head is right, which would slide Cody Zeller into a reserve role he seems more suited for.

Frank Kaminsky will need to make significant strides in year two for the Hornets to have a chance to come close to the 48 wins they posted last season.

When it all shakes out, the Hornets will be around .500 and among the bottom four playoff teams in the East, possibly landing the sixth seed for the second straight year. Anything more than that would be significant overachievement.

Charlotte could have a strong starting unit. It’s just what will happen in those other minutes that will likely define this edition of the Hornets.

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