National Basketball Association

Bring Out The Brooms?

Updated Jul. 13, 2021 12:43 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre

The basketball world had been waiting 15 months for Lakers vs. Clippers in the Western Conference Finals, but then the Denver Nuggets got in the way.

After such a curveball from Denver, how should you approach betting the series? I have four keys I'm keeping in mind, with all odds via FOX Bet.

1. The Lakers are heavily favored (-650 to win the series) for a reason.

LeBron James' squad won three of four against the Nuggets in the regular season and the lone Denver win came when LeBron sat out.

More importantly, the Lakers neutralized Nikola Jokic. In those four meetings, Jokic averaged just 16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game, all well below his regular season marks.

In the last round, the Clippers had nobody to match up with Jokic, as he dominated the much smaller Montrezl Harrell, averaging 24.4 points, 13.4 rebounds and 6.6 assists. The Lakers, on the other hand, will throw JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard, and, of course, Anthony Davis at him.

If the Lakers win Game 1 – they dropped it against Portland and Houston – against the weary Nuggets, a sweep is definitely in play. Some pizza money on a Lakers sweep at +260 is a bet I’ve already made, and FOX Bet has it at an even juicier +350.

2) Jamal Murray has turned into a star in the bubble playoffs, but ...

Murray is averaging an astonishing 27.1 points per game in the postseason, shooting an unbelievable 49% on 3-pointers in 14 games.

However, when the Clippers stopped Murray in the last series, Denver lost each time by double digits. In the four wins, Murray averaged 28.5 points; in the three losses, that dipped to 14.6.

The Lakers have seen a dynamic scoring guard like Murray in each of the first two rounds: Damian Lillard and James Harden. Each had a monster Game 1 against the Lakers, and then Frank Vogel largely schemed them out of the offense, daring the supporting cast to beat them. Expect the same here if Murray goes off.

There could be value betting over points props for Gary Harris and perhaps Michael Porter Jr, then, although the latter carries big risk.

Coach Mike Malone didn’t appear to trust MPJ in Game 7 vs. the Clippers, playing him his fewest minutes in the series (he didn’t make a shot). Plus, the Lakers would likely counter by going small and matching LeBron up with the 22-year old.

3) Everything lines up for LeBron James to have a monster series.

Speaking of The King, the Nuggets will likely start with Jerami Grant on him. He’s a plus defender, and in a contract year, an impressive performance against LeBron could make him a lot of money. He also was a big, big reason Denver was able to stop the Clips in Game 7.

But defending Kawhi Leonard last series took a lot out of Grant – he shot just 31% against the Clippers, including just 22% on five 3-point attempts per game.

Torrey Craig is another option, but he saw his minutes reduced against the wing-heavy Clippers because of his own shooting struggles (2-for-12 on 3s).

That leaves Paul Millsap, who is 35 years old and probably still having nightmares about what LeBron did to him in Atlanta in 2015. Millsap was an All-Star and the Hawks won 60 games, but LeBron eviscerated Millsap and Atlanta in a memorable sweep.

LeBron nearly averaged a triple double (30.3 points, 11 rebounds and 9.3 assists). Millsap averaged just 13.8 points and shot a forgettable 34% from the field and 12% from deep.

4) The Nuggets play like snails.

Denver ranked 29th out of 30 during the regular season in pace. In the postseason, it’s been the same deal, ranking 15th out of 16 bubble playoff teams.

Leaning heavily on the Murray and Jokic pick-and-roll, the Nuggets have excelled in the half court – but the Lakers are the best half court defensive team left in the playoffs, and the big edge they have over the Clippers is rim protection, given their depth.

The Clippers were built to defend the perimeter, where the NBA playoffs have been dominated by 3-point shooting. They were ill-equipped to handle the brawn of Jokic inside. The Lakers were the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA this season, and in the playoffs they once again rank 3rd. In the bubble, the Clippers were 8th and the Jazz 14th.

Overcoming L.A.'s defense will be a Herculean task for the Nuggets, who will either have to executive in the half court to perfection, or speed up the pace and take advantage of some aging Lakers units (Danny Green is 33, LeBron is 35, McGee is 32, Markieff Morris is 31, Rajon Rondo is 34).