National Basketball Association

Atlanta Hawks 2016-17 Season Outlook: Is Another Top-Tier Finish In Store?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Sep 26, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer speaks during the Atlanta Hawks media day at The W Hotel. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Hawks reshaped it’s core in the off-season, but kept its identity intact. Will this be good enough for another playoff appearance?

Last season’s record: 48-34, 4th in Eastern Conference

It was a painful, yet encouraging offseason for the Atlanta Hawks, who departed away from a handful of homegrown pieces. But in return, seek out an opportunity to provide several of its previous draft picks a chance to grow.

Since becoming the Hawks’ head coach in 2013, Mike Budenholzer has mastered in getting the most out of his roster which has competed the playoffs every year for nearly a decade. With a reshuffling at the top of it’s starting lineup this season, can Budenholzer work his magic again?

Let’s take a look of what they added in and lost.

Acquisitions:

Departures:

Atlanta lost two vital components to its roster amid free agency this offseason in power forward Al Howard and point guard Jeff Teague. Both of them represented the start of Atlanta’s rebuild in 2008 and 2009. Throughout their years with the Hawks, the duo grew within their respected roles and exceeded expectations to make Atlanta a first-tier threat in the Eastern Conference.

In order to keep continuity, the Atlanta Hawks took a chance and nabbed free agent veterans Dwight Howard and Jarrett Jack. If healthy, the journeyed 32-year old can still contribute on the offensive end (averaged 12.2 PPG) and shoot at a respectable rate (38.9 FG%), which is good enough for a No. 2 point guard.

As for Howard, the eight-time All-Star may be on the down-side of his career, but the center is still a viable shot-blocker (1.6 BPG) and rebounder (11.4 per game). Draft acquisitions such as Cordinier, Bembry and Prince make up a good rotation at the wing, but the production of them is unproven.

Apr 26, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) and guard Dennis Schroder (17) react against the Boston Celtics in the third quarter in game five of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena. The Hawks defeated the Celtics 110-83. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Depth Chart Prediction

PG: Dennis Schroder, Jarrett Jack

SG: Kyle Korver, Tim Hardaway Jr.

SF: Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, DeAndre Bembry

PF: Paul Millsap, Kris Humphries, Mike Scott, Mike Muscala

C: Dwight Howard, Tiago Splitter, Walter Tavares

On paper, there’s a lot to like about involving Atlanta’s starters. A trio composed of Dennis Schroder, Kyle Korver and Kent Bazemore makes up a very reputable front-line in the backcourt. With no more Al Horford, the bulk of Atlanta’ frontcourt revolves around a very expendable Paul Millsap and an aging, yet still quite productive Dwight Howard.

However once you get past the Hawks starting five, there’s several causes of concern. At first glance, it’s difficult to trust Atlanta’s 3 and 5 positions. For what it’s worth, Prince and Bembry don’t possess experience at all to be handed 20-22 minutes regularly, at least at the beginning of the season behind Bazemore.

The same can be said for Splitter and Tavares, whom both may provide an upside defensively, they don’t have what it takes to be that vital scorer to compliment Howard.

Atlanta’s certainty at the 4 is much more optimistic though. Humphries and Scott are solid defenders that can switch on screens and rebound handily. The biggest what if coming from those two however lies in their reliability in stretching the floor.

Apr 28, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Kent Bazemore (24) celebrates a victory against the Boston Celtics in game six of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Strengths

The Atlanta Hawks have an incredible two-way star in Kent Bazmore: The SG/SF that was once rejected by the Warriors and Lakers turned into a diamond in the rough talent for Atlanta last season. In his first full season starting, the 27-year old averaged 11.6 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, as well as connecting on 44.1 percent of his shots from the field. Based off last year’s breakout campaign, Bazemore carries the potential to cause serious problems to opposing defenders.

His 6-foot-5 frame enables him to drive past smaller forwards, but also shooter over bigger guards, as he drilled 35.7 percent of his shots from long-range.

Paul Millsap is still a frontcourt luxury: It’s easy to get caught up in the fact that Atlanta lost cornerstone center Al Horford. Because don’t get me wrong that was a BIG loss to a roster that lacks impact star power. However, Horford’s sidekick, Paul Millsap, was just as effective in the post last season and may generate several mismatches this year.

After all, Millsap led the Hawks in points per game (17.1), rebounds per game (9.0) and PER (21.5). Ever since coming to Atlanta in 2013-14 from Utah, Millsap has developed as a rangy shooter who can nail the 10-15 foot jumpers at an efficient rate (46.4 percent), as well as from beyond the arc (32.6).

Weaknesses

There’s Kyle Korver on the wing and…who: Korver is obviously the focal point on the wing, a reputation that he’s earned throughout his 14-year career. But he is 34 and while he can still stroke it with the best of anyone in the league (connecting on 45.4 percent of long-range shots each of the past four seasons), Korver needs help.

Right now, the second available shooting guard Atlanta contains on its roster is 24-year old Tim Hardaway Jr. In his first season as a Hawk, Hardaway Jr. averaged 6.4 PPG and shot a career-high from the field (43 percent), however it was only in a limited 16 minutes of action a game.

In all likelihood, Hardaway’s workload will be bolstered this season, and with that Hardaway’s performance as a scorer needs to take on a new level as well.

Is there too much pressure on Dwight Howard’s shoulders: Howard is not the same 24-year old that put up 20/14 type numbers a night. He is on the wrong-side of 30 and can’t be that first-rate scoring option down low anymore.

With that said, the lanky 6-11 center can still be a sufficient back-to-the-basket scorer and adequate rebounder. But like the case for Korver, he again needs assistance. Can his surrounding cast of Splitter and Tavares help balance out his minutes?

Mar 17, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Dennis Schroder (17) drives to the basket against the Denver Nuggets in the fourth quarter at Philips Arena. The Hawks defeated the Nuggets 116-98. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Most Important Player: Dennis Schroder

There’s a lot of routes you can go with this. The Atlanta Hawks lost its most versatile big man in Horford – who averaged 14.3 PPG and 8.9 RBG each season as a Hawk – and its most consistent point guard in Teague – who was their second best shooter on the team past two seasons per eFG percentage (.501).

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But considering Millsap’s annual growth as a scorer and shooter, the Hawks are well-suited in the front-court. So that leaves us with the question of, who can replicate Teague’s stable production?

Right now, this is a role that falls onto the shoulders of 23-year old Dennis Schroder. During his first three seasons in the league, the German product has spent the entire time as the Hawks’ primary back-up point guard, increasing his offensive production each season. However it’s worth mentioning that was between 16-20 minutes of playing time per game. If in fact the Hawks want Schroder to take the next step, then producing at a high-level while playing starter minutes is almost mandatory.

There’s several factors of Schroder’s game that makes the jump seem plausible however. Last season, Schroder finished fourth on the team in PER (15.16) and led all Hawks’ guards in rebounds (5.6 per game), which at the size of 6’1” speaks volumes. Schroder will have to vastly improve his efficiency from the field, especially from 3-point range, if the Hawks intend to become a more complete offensive unit.

Despite hitting their stride from the perimeter in last season’s playoffs, during the regular season Atlanta finished 17th in the NBA in terms of 3-point percentage (34.8 percent). Schroder’s 32.2 percent from beyond the arc and 42.1 percent overall was entirely 10 points lower than the likes of Teague and Kyle Korver.

Apr 19, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Kyle Korver (26) attempts a three-point basket against Boston Celtics center Jared Sullinger (7) in the first quarter of game two of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena. The Hawks won 89-72. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

How Season Ends

Only the Spurs have made the playoffs in more consecutive seasons (19) than the Hawks (nine). Neither streak is ending quite yet, but these Hawks admittedly aren’t as dangerous as the previous two iterations.

The 2014-15 squad, which won an Eastern Conference best 60 games and was the best unit in this franchise’s modern history. Last year’s 48-win bunch stood out as a dominant defensive group that could knock down enough jumpers to hang in there.

While this year’s version is still capable of challenging Cleveland and several other Eastern Conference contenders, it won’t be nearly as threatening unless Howard experiences a career resurgence and Schroder validates Atlanta’s decision to promote him.

Even as the Eastern Conference’s lower half improves, the Hawks remain a tier above. They have too much talent, too much quality coaching and too much depth to miss out on the playoffs.

However, they’ll likely struggle to decisively earn home-court advantage in the postseason’s opening round this time.

Prediction: 44-38, 2nd in Southeast, 5th in Eastern Conference

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