Washington Nationals Top Five Offseason Priorities
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What items should the Washington Nationals put on their offseason to-do list? Here are five priorities to address if they want to launch a more successful postseason run in 2017.
Earlier today, we examined the ups and downs of the Washington Nationals‘ 2016 season. As evidenced by their 95 wins, the regular season was filled mostly with the former, although a couple injuries to key players provided some obstacles. In any case, the Nats looked ready to make a date with the Chicago Cubs in the National League playoffs.
They were just edged out by the Los Angeles Dodgers in a five-game NLDS, however, continuing a trend of underachievement in the postseason. In the Nationals’ last three trips to the playoffs, they have failed to advance beyond the Division Series. As their fans can attest, it’s been thoroughly disappointing to see from a team with clear World Series aspirations.
The only way to go is forward, though, and general manager Mike Rizzo will try to use this offseason to get his club over the hurdle. While many of the Nats’ most important components for success will remain in the fold for 2017 (i.e. Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, Daniel Murphy), they will have several positions and players to address in the coming months.
With a manager in Dusty Baker who’s been around the block and has an NL pennant under his belt, along with an owner in Ted Lerner who is desperate for a title, this is a team expected to win, and win now. That’s not going to change next season. In fact, after falling short yet again, the pressure will be felt all the more. And with Harper potentially eligible for free agency after the 2018 campaign, there is a creeping sense that time could be running out.
So without further ado, here are the five areas the Nationals should prioritize during the upcoming offseason.
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Re-Sign Mark Melancon
As Jonathan Papelbon continued to struggle in the role, it became clear that if the Washington Nationals were going to have any chance of advancing deep into October, they would need a reliable closer. Several potent relievers were dealt before the trade deadline, and the Nats nabbed one of them from the Pirates in the form of Mark Melancon.
After notching a league-leading 51 saves in 2015, the right-hander was clearly one of the best in the business. He lived up to his billing, converting 17 of 18 save chances for the Nats with a 1.82 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 9.00 K/BB. He also tossed 4.1 scoreless innings in the playoffs and earned a save.
Melancon will enter the free agency pool next month, where he will join some of the other top closers in the game in Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. To ensure that they end up with one of them, the wisest move for the Nationals might be to engage Melancon early about signing a new contract. Even if they don’t complete a deal before he officially hits the market, they will already have done some valuable legwork, which will be important amid the feeding frenzy that will undoubtedly develop around the available closers.
Chapman and Jansen are great relievers as well, but waiting to play the entire field might work against Washington here, as none of these guys will lack for suitors and some teams are going to be left out in the cold. Since Melancon is a couple years older, he might also come a bit cheaper in terms of money and/or years. He looked good in the nation’s capital, and why mess with something that works?
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Replace Wilson Ramos at Catcher
The Washington Nationals would have likely made a strong effort to re-sign Wilson Ramos before he tore his ACL last month. The 29-year-old catcher was putting the finishing touches on the best season of his seven-year career, slashing .307/.354/.496 with 22 home runs and 80 RBI.
The injury not only prevented Ramos from playing in the postseason, but it threw a major wrench into his impending free agency as well. He would have been clearly the best catcher on the market, and now he’s probably going to have to wait to get signed. The Nats could consider extending him the one-year qualifying offer in hopes that he’ll want to prove his health and rebuild his value, but $17 million is a lot to pay for someone who might only play half the season. An AL team with the DH seems increasingly likely as a landing spot for him.
So what should they do instead? Like this year’s free agent class in general, the crop of available catchers isn’t particularly inspiring. Matt Wieters leads the group, but he managed a pedestrian .711 OPS this season and has an injury history of his own. A five-year deal with him seems destined to turn sour.
The most reasonable strategy might be to give youngster Pedro Severino the opportunity to take the job. The 23-year-old made only 34 plate appearances this year, but he performed quite well in the cameo, slashing .321/.441/.607 with two homers. In 82 games at Triple-A, he slashed .271/.316/.337. The Nats’ top-ranked catching prospect as per MLB Pipeline, it may be time to see what he can do in a regular role.
No matter what, it seems very unlikely that Washington will be able to replicate Ramos’ production out of the catcher’s spot in 2017. They will have to hope they can make up the difference elsewhere.
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Move Trea Turner to Shortstop
Some of that difference could be made up by getting a full season of Trea Turner. The rookie highly impressed in his first extended taste of big league action, posting a stellar .342/.370/.567 batting line in 73 games. He showed some pop with his bat by swatting 13 home runs and driving in 40, and he made consistent use of his speed in swiping 33 bags.
Turner performed so well that the Nationals had to get him into the lineup however they could. Though a shortstop by trade, the 23-year-old spent 45 games in center field, along with 30 at second base and two at short. Washington should decide where he will play in 2017 over the offseason, and it’s time for him to return to what he knows best.
Danny Espinosa played nearly every game at shortstop for the Nats in 2016. He’s a good defender (eight defensive runs saved) and has some power for the position (24 HR), but overall he’s just not really up to snuff. He slashed a paltry .209/.306/.378 and generated a below average 79 wRC+. Turner should provide a significant upgrade without much trouble. Eligible for free agency in a year, Espinosa might make more sense as defensive depth.
Moving Turner back to short would also open up a spot in the outfield, which the Nationals could fill with one of several intriguing (albeit likely expensive) options. Yoenis Cespedes will reportedly opt out and hit the free agent market, where he will join names like Mark Trumbo and Josh Reddick. Could a reunion with Ian Desmond even be possible? It would be a bizarre turn of events, but he had a bounce-back year at the plate for the Rangers and didn’t really embarrass himself in his first year playing center field.
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Let the Stars Heal
The Washington Nationals suffered injuries to a few of their franchise players this year, namely Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg.
Though Harper managed to play in 147 games, he dealt with various ailments over the course of the season, including a sore right shoulder, stiff neck and an injured left thumb. Some argue that these health issues – the shoulder in particular – may have played a role in Harper’s decreased production this year. The reigning NL MVP certainly didn’t do much to defend his crown, slashing .243/.373/.441 with 24 homers and 86 RBI. Those are by no means bad numbers, but we rightly hold Harper to a different standard.
Meanwhile, Strasburg missed some starts in June due to a strained upper back, and then he went down in August with right elbow soreness. He attempted to come back in early September, but had to leave his start after only 2.1 innings and was diagnosed with a flexor mass strain in his right arm. There was some hope that he might have been available if the Nats advanced to the NLCS, but one of his bullpen sessions was cut short after he felt some discomfort, officially ending his 2016.
When Strasburg did take the mound, he looked as good as he has in a long time, particularly at the beginning of the year. In fact, that likely played a part in the Nats pulling the trigger on a seven-year, $175 million extension in May. Through his first 17 outings he posted a perfect 13-0 record with a 2.51 ERA. His final seven starts? A 7.36 ERA over 33 innings. Like with Harper, the Nationals will hope this downturn was strictly injury-related.
The team is apparently confident that both will be on time for Spring Training, which is obviously good news. But if any warning signs pop up, Washington should not hesitate to take it slow with two of the franchise’s jewels. Most fans would be alright with Harper sitting out a few games if he hits like he did in 2015, or with Strasburg missing a couple starts if he pitches like the Cy Young candidate he was in the first half of this year.
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Rotation Depth
However, given that Strasburg is no stranger to injuries, it would be in the Nationals’ best interest to plan for any contingency. You can never have too much pitching, and the club would do well to see if it can add a solid middle-to-back-end arm to its rotation.
The free agent market is sparse, but if the Nats are willing to spend and roll the dice a bit, someone like Rich Hill or Jeremy Hellickson could be useful. Anyone they could sign would come with baggage, though, related to injury, inconsistent performance, or some combination of the two.
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The ideal scenario might be Lucas Giolito coming into his own in his first full season as a major leaguer. The Nationals’ top prospect made six appearances (four starts) this year and struggled, putting up a 6.75 ERA over 21.1 innings. No one’s expecting him to be a top starter right away, but if he can develop into a solid performer in 2017, showing some of the potential that has made him one of the most coveted young lefties in baseball, it would be great for Washington’s rotation now and in the future.
24-year-old A.J. Cole is another young pitcher who could contribute, and the team has several other highly-regarded arms in its farm system who may or may not be ready to play a role next season.
If they really want to shoot for the moon, do the Nats explore what it would take to pry an elite arm like Chris Sale away through a trade? The cost would be high, but they could have the pieces to get it done if the White Sox actually shop him. If you’re looking for a move that screams “win now,” this would be it.
There’s little reason to believe Max Scherzer won’t still be one of the best starters in the game, but he does turn 33 next July. And although Tanner Roark surprisingly turned into a nice number-two option for the Nats, it’s not outlandish to wonder if he might come back down to earth a bit (3.79 FIP, .269 BABIP, 79.5 percent strand rate). There is also uncertainty surrounding Gio Gonzalez, who has a $12 million team option for next season.
The Nationals will keep their fingers crossed that Strasburg can give them a complete, healthy year, but with all the variables involved, it feels like the team should have one or more starters lined up just in case, whether that comes from within or via free agency or trade.
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