Major League Baseball

Verlander may not be faster, but he's stronger -- and feels good as ever

Published Feb. 27, 2015 12:00 p.m. ET

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Ken Rosenthal

Velocity, everyone talks about Justin Verlander’s declining velocity.

It’s true that the speed of Verlander’s average fastball has steadily declined, from 95.5 mph in 2010 to 93.1 in ’14, according to Fangraphs.com. But when the Tigers signed Verlander to a seven-year, $180 million contract before the 2013 season, they were buying the pitcher, not the pitcher’s velocity, general manager Dave Dombrowski says.

That pitcher, now 32, was not the same last season, not after undergoing core-muscle surgery the previous January. Oh, Verlander’s fastball velocity was good enough, even though he lost power in his legs and his shoulder eventually became an issue. But his curveball, his slider, his command, none of that was the same.

“We always projected when we signed him -- he won’t as readily say this -- but we felt his velocity would decline as time went on,” Dombrowski says. “You look at guys who are starting pitchers and they get to their mid-30s -- 36, 37 -- how many guys maintain that same velocity?

“Nolan Ryan? People say Randy Johnson. No, his velocity dropped. Pedro Martinez. No, his velocity dropped. Roger Clemens. His velocity dropped. But they threw hard enough and knew how to pitch. We always felt Justin had the other pitches. His curveball was a plus pitch. His changeup was a plus pitch. His slider was a solid pitch. But he didn’t have those last year.”

Well, this year is almost certain to be different. Verlander is healthy and coming off a normal offseason of training -- an offseason in which he increased his weight to 238 pounds, a 28-pound increase from where he was a year ago, after surgery.

Will he be the old Justin Verlander? That guy -- the guy who could throw 98 mph in the eighth inning -- might never return. But can Verlander again be a top-of-the-rotation starter, rather than the guy who stumbled to a 4.54 ERA last season?

He is counting on it, and so are the Tigers.

“To be honest, it’s night and day,” Verlander says of the difference from a year ago. “I feel better than I have in years. I was able to get back into my normal routine, get into the weight room. I also was seeing a physical therapist for an hour and a half, three days a week, just learning about my body, how the surgery could have affected me. I feel great right now.”

So great he recently threw 50 or so pitches in a bullpen session, cooled off and then felt ready to throw again 15 minutes later -- as opposed to last season, when he said he could not get loose until 10 pitches into an inning.

So great, Dombrowski, manager Brad Ausmus and the team’s coaches already have noticed that Verlander’s arm speed is better and that his curveball looks sharper.

Verlander knew his breaking stuff was not the same last season, turning him into, well, a below-average major-league starter.

“I just noticed that I wasn’t getting swings and misses on it,” he says. “Guys really weren’t chasing it much. It’s tough to get guys out at this level with balls in the strike zone, especially when they’re not as sharp as they usually are.

“Right-handed hitters were hitting my curveball pretty well, which is not normal for me. That made it difficult to get guys out. I had to play with things, try to do things differently.”

The numbers support Verlander’s observations.

The swing-and-miss rate on his curveball dropped from 26.8 percent during his first nine seasons to 24 percent in ’14, according to STATS LLC. The decline in the swing-and-miss rate on his slider was even more pronounced, falling from 35.9 percent to 27.7 percent.

Right-handed hitters batted .327 with a .592 slugging percentage off his curveball, as opposed to .184 with a .275 slugging percentage from 2005-13. They showed similar increases against his slider, and the chase rates on both pitches by all hitters declined.

Now that Verlander is healthy, all of those numbers figure to return to their previous norms, or close to them. Let’s not forget one other thing: Verlander is one of the game’s most confident players and fiercest competitors, a pitcher who burns to restore his greatness.

“You talk about desire and will. I’ve always been somebody who believes wholeheartedly in myself and my ability,” Verlander says. “I want to be back to being me. As funny as that sounds, feeling good is the first step. The next step is going out on the mound and producing.”

Reporters frequently ask Tigers pitching coach Jeff Jones: How good can Verlander be this season? Can he approximate the pitcher who won the 2011 American League Cy Young and MVP awards?

The questions, of course, are impossible for Jones to answer. While Verlander’s early signs are encouraging, it would be unfair to expect him to be the pitcher he was in ’11-’12, when he led the majors in innings, strikeouts and ERA-plus.

“I’m hoping that we see what we saw three years ago. But it’s so hard to tell,” Jones says. “I know he’s better, he’s stronger. To be able to say that he will be as good as he was when he won the Cy Young, that’s kind of a stretch for now. But barring any kind of setbacks or anything like that, I think he’s going to have a great year.”

Verlander smiles when asked if his velocity will come back, saying, “I don’t think I need it to -- but I hope it does. The ball is coming out of my hand much better now than it was a year ago.” He jokes that his increased bulk forced him to get bigger pants in spring training, saying, “It’s funny saying my pants are too tight. I’m the only guy left who wears super-tight pants.

How confident is he that he can again be the great Justin Verlander?

Do we even need to ask?

“Extremely,” Verlander says. “I’m ready.”

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