Should the Atlanta Braves Consider Extending Swanson Soon?
Oct 2, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves second baseman Jace Peterson (8) and shortstop Dansby Swanson (2) celebrate after a double play against the Detroit Tigers in the eighth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
How much risk is too much – for either side? The Braves have six years of control with their new shortstop. Is it too soon to start thinking about how long to try and keep him beyond that?
The Atlanta Braves believe they have a keeper on their hands in Dansby Swanson. They also have a pipeline of new players stretching all the way back to the Dominican Republic. How bad do they want to hold onto their prized top draft theft?
We could find out within the next year or so. If Swanson (who turns 23 in February) is the next incarnation of Chipper Jones or Freddie Freeman, then it might be time to consider treating him that way – with a sizeable contract extension.
Such things are difficult to map out this early in a career… and there are plenty of potholes along the road that history can provide lessons about as well. So let’s look at some history – both Braves and baseball history – to see if we can figure the right time frame for such a move… and to see what it might look like.
Sep 21, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; New York Yankees catcher Brian McCann (34) runs home to score a run against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Recent Braves’ History
The Braves have made several attempts to extend their early-breakout players – some of these have been good moves, others…
At the time, this was a record deal for a player with under 2 years of service time. He had just turned 23.
He was 23½ with just over 2 years of service time.
Right after McCann signed his deal, the Braves turned around and asked Frenchy to sign virtually the same contract. Reportedly, he wanted twice as much.
Given that McCann’s deal was a record for the situation and that Jeff had a month less service time at the same age, this (if true) was a preposterous ask on his part. Obviously it was a terrible career choice for Francoeur, and the Braves dodged a bad contract here.
In what is becoming a theme, this became the largest contract for a player with less than 2 years of service time… besting Anthony Rizzo (7 years/$41 million).
This is currently the longest contract ever for a Braves’ player, besting both McCann and also Jones’ 6 year/$90 million 2000 deal.
In another theme consistent with the McCann/Frenchy offers), Jason Heyward was reportedly offered the same deal, but anecdotal reports indicate that he was looking for something in the $200 million range, and turned down the Braves.
The difference in this contract is that Freeman was arbitration eligible that season – his first year of eligibility.
Again, Teheran was entering his first year of arbitration eligibility. The Braves still seem to have gotten the best of this deal.
2014 was his first arbitration year as well.
Note: I am leaving Chris Johnson and Dan Uggla off this list for multiple reasons, chiefly their ages, and service time. Likewise, Melvin Upton was also in a different place all together as an outside free agent signee.
While all of these players had a ‘bad’ contract, it’s not a comparable situation to the one we’re looking at with Swanson.
Thoughts about These Deals
Next: Checking Around the League
Sep 15, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria (3) hits a three run home run in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Some Other Long-Term “Early” Contracts
I am relying on a good portion of Sam Miller’s work from this FoxSports.com column here. We’ll stick with position players for this comparison.
Not including Mike Trout… he’s in a category all his own.
Thoughts About These Deals
Let’s add one more case – a special one – for illustrative purposes:
All taken together, the Rays may very well be looking to trade Longoria before he hits 10-and-5 rights early in 2018 season. But it won’t be because he hasn’t been worth his contract at this point.
With a bit of a trade-off of offense-for-defense, Longoria is close to what my own projection for Swanson would be. Swanson should hit a little more for average; both will be valuable as a defender at their respective positions; Longoria is the better slugger.
Both should drive in runs roughly equally given the chance, though Swanson will lose RBI as a future 2-hole hitter.
The next question would be that if a good portion of Swanson’s value is due to being a shortstop, how long will that continue to be the case? Furthermore, once he starts to lose a step, will the Braves have a place for him in his 30+ years?
All of these questions factor into a future contract offer.
Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson (2) turns a double play past Washington Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos (40). Yes, I intentionally chose this pic to include Ramos. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
What is the Worth, Then?
You might think this premature, given that Swanson is not going to be arbitration eligible until 2020… three more seasons away. And that’s probably correct.
The history shown suggests that the target for offering a long-term deal probably lies after the 2017 season as he will be 23 years old and approaching his age-24 season.
More from Tomahawk Take
The reason for bringing this up now is that the duration of an offer might very well depend on his 2017 performance. A solid 2017 would portend confirmation of what we’ve seen thus far.
The Age Thing
Of note in the prior Braves’ extension deals shown earlier: all of them expire by the time the player hits age 32 (Freddie Freeman’s deal actually being the outlier – most were scheduled to end by age 30 – this including Andrelton Simmons’ deal).
If you simply go with the regular team control schedule and the arbitration process, Swanson would be a Brave through 2022, his age 28 season. Do note that unless further extended, Freeman’s deal concludes after 2021.
There are reasons well beyond age and innate ability to consider trying to lock up Swanson early.. and for more than the ‘normal’ range of time:
A Breakdown
Given the Swanson continued through 2017 as 2016 ended for him, if the team were to approach Swanson about a long-term contract after the 2017 season, here’s one idea of what might it look like:
All of that adds up to a guaranteed contract level of $114 million over 9 seasons with a possible total value of $166 million if all options are exercised over the full 12 years.
This estimate is arguably team-friendly, given that we’re talking about something over the next decade of escalating contracts… but it would be hard to ignore from the player’s point of view. Very few have let a lucrative offer go without some regret later (Jason Heyward being the glaring exception).
Again, we’re probably talking about a solid defender with a future average OPS of something in the .750 range. He won’t be a 30-HR slugger or 100 RBI guy, but he’s going to be in the middle of most plays on the field and when hitting, he’s going to make plays happen. That’s still Longoria-like value.
One more reminder: this discussion could be a year early, though history has seen the Braves offer deals to a year-23 player, so it’s not beyond comprehension that Coppy could choose to strike early here.
Regardless, if the Braves believe Swanson is to join Freddie Freeman as their franchise guys going into SunTrust Park, we fans can probably look forward to news like this – sometime within the next year or so.
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