San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants: Four Potential Free Agents to Avoid

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Dec 17, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; (from left) San Francisco Giants chief executive officer Larry Baer and senior vice president/general manager Bobby Evans announce the signing of pitcher Johnny Cueto at a press conference at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco Giants have needs. They’re going to be like that person who just got out of a relationship where certain needs weren’t met. They’ll fall for anyone who looks like they might have those needs, or potentially have those needs. Those are the guys they must avoid.

As the Cubs and Dodgers play on in the NLCS, the San Francisco Giants are stuck making roster decisions. It seems like they may have already made a decision not to keep on one player, Gregor Blanco. In both Bobby Evans’ post-season comments, and Larry Baer’s post-season letter to fans, the Giants signaled their clear intent on improving the bullpen, and getting an everyday left fielder.

With how bad this year’s free agent class is, the Giants sure have some decisions to make. Most likely, some pretty OK players are going to get some pretty gawdy contracts. The Giants need to avoid unnecessary contracts as always.

They also need to avoid getting pieces that don’t fit the philosophy of the franchise. That would include: bad defensive players, and egotistical players. Evans said in his post-season comments that the Giants just need to score runs, it doesn’t matter how they are scored. So it’s safe to say power won’t be a priority. With all that in mind, here are four players the Giants NEED to stay away from in free agency.

Apr 24, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Neftali Feliz against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Neftali Feliz

Feliz has had a really interesting career. From Rookie of the Year in 2010, to struggling to get innings for the Rangers in 2014 and 2015. What’s he got? Velocity, and lots of it. He started out throwing near 100, now he’s down to 95mph. Five ticks is a lot in average velocity. What’s he got? What every other pitcher has, Two Fastballs, a changeup and a slider. He throws a lot of them really hard. He also tends to get lit up, a lot.

In 53.2 innings he allowed 10HR, and 21 runs scored against him. IN PITTSBURGH! It’s a pitcher friendly park! Fangraphs gives us cool stats like HR/FB ratio. It’s pretty simple to understand. Out of all fly balls hit, what percentage end up being home-runs? In 2010 it was 6%, which is really good. In 2011, it was 5.3% percent, which is really good as well. In 2016, Neftali Feliz’s HR/FB ratio was at 19.2%. That’s absolutely horrendous. Nearly 20% of the fly balls he gave up went for home-runs

Fangraphs also keeps track of a super cool stat called, FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching. This measures how good a pitcher is at doing what he has direct control over. It’s based on an ERA type scale, so the lower it is, the better. Feliz’s FIP in 2016 was 4.53. In fact, since 2011, in seasons where he pitches more than 30innings, Feliz hasn’t had an FIP under 4.00.

Feliz is severely on the decline. Clearly, putting him in a pitcher friendly ballpark doesn’t help. He’s not going to magically get his crap together next season either, he is what he is now. The Giants should steer well clear of him when it comes to revamping the bullpen.

Oct 17, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (left) hits a single against Cleveland Indians catcher Roberto Perez (right) during the third inning in game three of the 2016 ALCS playoff baseball series at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Jose Bautista

Bautista would be a terrible fit in SF. If the Giants want an everyday left fielder, they NEED to play defense. As we discussed earlier, defense is key in the Giant’s philosophy of winning baseball. It always has been.

Rogers Centre is a typical AL East Ballpark. It’s symmetrical, and fairly small. Not only does that make outfield defense a little easier, it ALSO makes hitting a lot easier.

Just ask Josh Donaldson. Is it easier to hit home runs at Rogers Centre than it is at O.COCollesium? He’d probably laugh. Jose Bautista hasn’t hit over .300 in his career more than once.

Outside of that one season, he hasn’t come within ten points of a batting average of .300. A lot of his offensive numbers come from the ballpark he’s playing in.

Besides, his numbers have been on the decline and hit a pretty big low this year. Only a .234 Average and 22 Home-Runs. He’s also become a little more injury prone. I’d be shocked if the Blue Jays don’t retain him, but if they don’t San Francisco just wouldn’t be a good landing spot.

Oct 4, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles right fielder Mark Trumbo (45) hits a two run home run during the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League wild card playoff baseball game at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Trumbo

So what if he lead the American League in home-runs? He doesn’t fit the Giants philosphy as a franchise. He would be a glorified Michael Morse, and with Spotrac.com projecting his market value at $20 million annually, the Giants should make a hard pass. He can definitely hit the ball hard, but his contact rate isn’t exactly the greatest.

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He struck out 170 times this year, good for 10th highest in baseball. If you thought Belt struck out a lot, then wait till you have to deal with Trumbo. Camden Yards is a hitter friendly ballpark and frankly, numbers there really can’t be trusted. The ball travels a lot differently at AT&T and I don’t think you’d see more than half of that type of production if he signed in SF.

Let’s also take a look at his defense. According to Baseball Reference, his defence was worth -7 runs in left field, and -3 runs at third base. That doesn’t exactly fit into the Giants overall philosophy. Put him in a larger field, with more responsibility defensively, and that just isn’t going to work. Mark Trumbo? Mark Trumb-no.

Sep 20, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets left fielder Yoenis Cespedes (52) strikes out to end the ninth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Yoenis Cespedes

Before people jump to my throat here about not wanting Cespedes if he’s available, this comes with a condition. That condition is that if Cespedes insists upon playing center-field, then the Giants should just say no. If Cespedes is willing to play left field and not make a stink about it, then the Giants should give it a shot.

I really like Cespedes. He’s an entertaining player, he can hit for power, and that arm of his is an absolute cannon. He’s a very good ballplayer. However, he just cannot play center field good enough. Throw him into Center Field at AT&T, and he just won’t be able to play it correctly. He already takes weird and terrible routes to baseballs. Left field at AT&T is fairly straight away and should be easy enough for him to navigate.

Pagan’s defense wasn’t all that terrible this year in left. Despite his arm strength, Pagan did well and he produced at an OK level at the plate. Cespedes could probably provide Pagan level defense in left, while giving more production at the plate. If he was in center-field however, that would be a disaster.

My case? In his five seasons of big league baseball, Cespedes has 36 defensive runs saved as a left fielder, and -11 as a centerfielder. If that doesn’t make the case then nothing will. Cespedes would totally be worth it if he was going to move to left field. If he didn’t want to, then the Giants shouldn’t even think twice about saying no.

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Free agency dates will be announced once the postseason is over. Players are eligible to re-sign with their clubs once the World Series concludes.

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