Philadelphia Phillies Offseason Acquisition Targets
Sep 21, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; A general view of game between Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
The Philadelphia Phillies took a step in the right direction in 2016, finishing with a 71-91 record, three games ahead of the Atlanta Braves for last place in the division.
To keep trending upwards, the Philadelphia Phillies will have to make a few moves this offseason, but maybe not something as big as trading away Ken Giles like they did last year. The focus should be on adding veteran leadership at a low cost, so that when some members of the Phils talented farm system are ready to make their debuts, there will be a spot waiting for them on the 25-man roster.
With a fairly weak free agent class, the Phillies will likely make an addition here or there, but nothing terribly splashy like signing Jose Bautista, who is one of the few big names on the market, would command a high salary (which isn’t necessarily an issue for the team) and block another outfielder ready for the jump. Instead the Phillies will be looking to add a veteran arm to the rotation with Jeremy Hellickson potentially leaving via free agency, while adding two arms would provide plenty of depth to a rotation that finished the season without both Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez.
Before we get started with some ways to fill up the roster this winter, let’s quickly take a look at where the team ranked in a few categories.
Offensively, the Phillies ranked last in runs (610), 24th in home runs (161), 29th in batting average (.240) and on-base percentage (.301) and last in wRC+ (82, which is eighteen percent below league average as a team).
The Phillies ranked ninth in baseball in defense according to the defensive metric on FanGraphs, but they also allowed 22 extra runs to score according to DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). While Ryan Howard was responsible for nine of those extra runs while manning first, and he will no longer be in the red pinstripes next season, there is still quite a gap to make up to get into the realm of many of the playoff teams that had positive metrics, outside of the Mets and their phenomenal starting pitching, the Nationals, who also have an excellent starting staff, and the Orioles, who just bludgeoned everyone with their offensive firepower.
The starting pitching that the Philadelphia Phillies have assembled in recent years will become their trademark as they look to get back to their winning ways in the coming years. As a team the pitching staff ranked 18th in WAR at 13.1, which includes a ranking of 25th in ERA (4.64) and a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) ranking of 21st (4.34) which is an example of their defense hurting them.
The Phillies staff was more prone to giving up more fly balls than grounders, which can work, but their fly ball per home run rate of 13.8 percent ranked 25th in the game. This isn’t to say that a team with a high HR/FB rate can’t challenge for a wild card berth, as both the Yankees and Rockies had higher rates than Philadelphia, but it’s something small and potentially correctable that could lead to more success in 2017.
To that point, let’s start off out look at what the Phillies could do this winter with starting pitchers.
Aug 20, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson (58) in action against the St. Louis Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Starting Pitching
The Philadelphia Phillies are presumably going to offer Hellickson a Qualifying Offer, which will be right around $16.7M. That’s a heck of a one-year salary for a player that was coming off a down year before Matt Klentak took a chance on him. Whether or not the right-hander accepts the offer, and that huge one-year salary, will be the big question. With the CBA set to expire not long after the World Series, there have been whispers that there could be some tweaks made to the way Qualifying Offers and draft pick compensation are handled in free agency, so that figure could potentially end up being lower.
If I was the Phillies, I’d be hoping that he rejects the offer, but potentially comes back to the table to talk about a multi-year deal worth a little extra scratch overall. If Hellickson were to reject the offer and sign elsewhere, the Phillies would get a draft pick in the Supplemental Round of the 2017 June Draft.
If Hellickson signs, that would (barring further injuries) leave the Phils rotation with Nola, Velasquez, Hellickson and Jerad Eickhoff with the fifth spot remaining an open competition between Adam Morgan, Charlie Morton (if both sides agree to pick up his mutual option), Alec Asher, Zach Eflin and potentially Jake Thompson, though Thompson will likely need more time in the minor leagues. One would get a spot in the rotation, another in the bullpen, and the rest would likely be on their way back to the minors.
If Hellickson doesn’t re-join the Phillies, then there are some buy-low candidates that will be on the free agent market this winter that could be intriguing.
Injuries have derailed him in recent seasons, but C.J. Wilson, if healthy, would likely be willing to sign with a team on an incentive laden contract. Adding Wilson, whose ground ball rate is higher than the average Phillie starter, while his HR/FB rate has consistently been below ten percent throughout his career, could be a gamble worth taking given his success in the past. Wilson has a career 3.74 ERA and underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in 2016. There won’t be many teams lining up for his services, and if the Phillies were to sign him, he could be an intriguing deadline trade chip.
If the Phillies are looking for a starting option to last more than a season, Ivan Nova would be another intriguing option to consider, as he pitched well with the Pirates after a midseason trade from New York. In eleven starts, Nova put up a 3.06 ERA (2.62 FIP) and walked three batters in 64 2/3 innings. Nova would be a little risky, because that success could have come at the hands of “pitcher whisperer” Ray Searage in Pittsburgh, and the two aren’t a package deal.
There are no aces on the market this offseason, so adding a pitcher could take a trade. In that regard, Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox is similar to Hellickson at the time of his acquisition: Down year in 2016, one year left on his contract and has had success in the past. Buchholz has a team option at $13.5M for 2017, so the Sox could pick that up and look to trade him, or just cut ties with him altogether.
Alex Cobb is another pitcher that has one year left on his contract, but he struggled in his return (22 innings) from Tommy John surgery this past year.
Jun 29, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Philadelphia Phillies catcher Cameron Rupp against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Catcher
Cameron Rupp showed that he can handle the bat in 2016, mashing 16 homers while batting .252, good for a 1.6 WAR. While his WAR ranked 18th among catchers, he does provide some pop from behind the plate, and the Philadelphia Phillies could use some offense from wherever they can get it. He’ll be the starting catcher headed into 2016 after starting 105 games at the position in 2016.
The real question is who will be behind him on the depth chart now that Carlos Ruiz is no longer with the team.
The main internal option is Jorge Alfaro, their number four ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline. Alfaro was acquired in the Cole Hamels deal at the 2015 trade deadline and played in six games in the big leagues last season. His bat didn’t translate in his small sample size, as the 23-year old catcher struck out in 47.1 percent of his 17 at-bats. If the Phillies are hoping to have an outside shot at a wild card berth next year, rolling the dice with Alfaro would be a risky play.
If the Phillies decide to go with another option, there will be a few options on the free agent market, namely Matt Wieters and A.J. Ramos, though they’ll be looking for starting jobs, making it unlikely that they’d join the rebuilding Phils.
Jason Castro is a solid defensive catcher with his glove work, but his offense has always been mediocre at best. He’s one option that won’t break the bank, however.
Another cheap option would be bringing back A.J. Ellis, who is seemingly best known for being Clayton Kershaw‘s personal catcher and best friend. Entering his age 36 season, Ellis wouldn’t be looking for a large role on the field, but his knowledge and professionalism both on and off the field could prove to be a valuable asset to a young Phillies squad. Ellis wouldn’t necessarily be a platoon option, as his splits are fairly similar against righties and lefties, so he could get the call when Rupp needs some time off.
If the Phillies are of the thinking that Alfaro needs a little more seasoning in the minors, Ellis could be a solid option to buy him some time.
Between Rupp, Castro and Ellis, Rupp was the worst catcher of the three in terms of getting extra strike calls for his pitcher. Castro turned 96 balls into strikes over the course of the year, while Ellis had one similar ruling while with the Phillies. Rupp turned in negative nine. A more defensively inclined catcher is the route to go here, and they won’t break the bank.
Sep 3, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Edubray Ramos (61) throws a pitch during the tenth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. The Braves defeated the Phillies, 6-4 in 10 innings. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Relievers
A horrendous final month hurt the final statistics of the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen, who finished with a cumulative ERA of 5.05, 28th in baseball. The first part of the season consisted of signing a bunch of former closers that had seen their careers stall for various reasons and hoping for the best. Throughout the course of the season, at least three options for next year emerged.
Hector Neris nearly doubled his workload from 2015, tossing 80 1/3 innings in 2016 while accumulating a WAR of 1.2. His strikeouts per nine rose to 11.43, which is solid, but his walks climbed too, up to 3.36 per nine. Neris led the team by a mile in Win Probability Added (WPA) and finished 31st among all relievers. He could be looking at a role in the ninth inning next year.
Jeanmar Gomez, if you take out his final month, finished with a 2.99 ERA. Obviously the last month still counts, so his 4.85 ERA over the entire season looks much worse, but he still looks like a valuable piece in the bullpen for next season. With some better options around them, some of the Phillies best relievers from 2016 should avoid a September drop-off next season, if fatigue was the main culprit.
The third bullpen arm that should have a solid role is 23-year-old righty Edubray Ramos, who finished his first big league season with a 3.83 ERA in 40 innings. He throws in the mid-90s and has a nasty hook. Pete Mackanin will find room for him.
From there, the Phillies will have their long reliever, and then three spots open for competition. If they decide to look outside of the organization, there are going to be plenty of big-name free agent relievers on the market like Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, but the likelihood of any of the three coming to Philly are slim.
Instead, a pair of Giants relievers will be on the market in Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla. Both have closing experience, and both have World Series experience. For a young team that could use some veterans, these would be two solid cost-effective options. Casilla lost his closer role in San Francisco down the stretch this season (to Romo), so the market may be a little soft on him this winter. Romo is known for his nasty sweeping slider that misses lots of bats.
If the Phillies wanted to make a sneaky play, either of those options could perform in the ninth, but adding one of those arms along with Francisco Rodriguez at the end of the game could give the Phils a sneaky good bullpen that could help mask their offensive woes. It certainly wouldn’t be a long term fix, but some extra wins in 2017 couldn’t hurt in helping to lure free agents to the City of Brotherly Love next winter either.
Oct 1, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco (7) in action during a baseball game against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Hello, Offense
Adding a bat could be a tricky proposition this offseason, as a number of the regular spots on the diamond are going to be filled with players that are either a part of the future in Philadelphia, or will likely be getting a look at a future starring role.
At third Maikel Franco didn’t take the leap that we expected him to at the plate, looking utterly lost at times, but he did lead the team in RBI and his job is not in jeopardy. At shortstop, we’ll likely see the debut of J.P. Crawford fairly early in the season, if not on opening day. At second, Cesar Hernandez came in with the highest fWAR on the team in 2016. Tommy Joseph provided some pop to the lineup and will be looking at a starting job at first.
That leaves the outfield, which could see some shakeups this winter. Odubel Herrera has been one of the best players on the team over the past two seasons, but questions about his work ethic may lead to him being traded at some point. The Felske Files Podcast mentioned that the front office could potentially try and package him with another commodity (they mentioned Velasquez) in order to land some pieces. Without Herrera, that would leave an outfield of Aaron Altherr, who will continue to get more playing time as the front office determines his role moving forward, Tyler Goeddel, who could see some time in the minors to start the 2017 season now that his Rule 5 status is gone, and Roman Quinn, who found himself on the all-too-familiar disabled list to end the season, as the likely outfield options.
The outfield is the one area that the Philadelphia Phillies could look to upgrade this winter. Again, there is a problem with the free agent market here. Most of the established sluggers are a bit older (Jose Bautista, 35, Ian Desmond, 31) and may not be looking to join a rebuild effort. Adding an outfielder through free agency could also limit the opportunities for minor leaguers like Nick Williams, if he can get back on track.
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Depending on which way the Phillies want to go here, there are some options to consider still. If they’re looking for offensive firepower, Michael Saunders had a solid season at the plate, earning a 117 wRC+, but his defensive abilities are certainly lacking, coming in with a DRS of -11, which would have been the worst on the team last year.
Brandon Moss, 33, can play an average corner outfield spot, but has been used as a platoon option of late, batting mostly against right-handers and earning a 114 wRC+ in the process.
Josh Reddick is a solid defensive outfielder whose defensive metrics don’t do justice, as his cannon of an arm tends to hold runners at bay more often than not. He is a bit hot and cold at the plate, but has earned a 106 wRC+ this season. Part of his struggles with the Dodgers since being traded at the deadline could be an adjustment to a new league, which would mean that his learning curve wouldn’t be as steep next season. The one downside for Reddick has been his slugging percentage against fastballs down the middle of the plate this season, which stands at just .242. Given the Mets rotation, along with a few other arms within the AL East, and their propensity to throw the hard stuff, Reddick may be an easier out for them if they can locate a challenge fastball.
Two former Astros could also be intriguing options for the Phillies to consider in Carlos Gomez, who has appeared to be on a decline in recent years and could be had on a one-year value-rebuilding deal, and Colby Rasmus, who has ranked as an excellent defender over his career and also has plenty of potential with the bat. Both are boom or bust candidates.
Mar 5, 2016; Dunedin, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies shortstop J.P. Crawford (77) bats against the Toronto Blue Jays during the eighth inning at Florida Auto Exchange Park. Mandatory Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports
Let the Kids Play
Part of being a rebuilding club these days means building up a solid farm system to act as a feeder system for big league success. The Philadelphia Phillies have done a good job of accomplishing the first part of that goal, and if there are ever any doubts about whether or not to sign a player via free agency, err on the side of betting on yourself.
The Phillies have depth in the minor leagues, which will lead to some tough decisions down the road concerning the 40-man roster, but for now it’s all about finding out which players are worth keeping around for the long haul. While much of the roster will come on the cheap and free up some payroll, spending money for the sake of it won’t accomplish much. Each decision from here on out needs to be made with a purpose.
We’ll finally be able to see the debut of Crawford in 2017, and outside of the shaky outfield offense, and perhaps he will even act as a catalyst for the offense moving forward. Outside of the outfield, there really isn’t a lot that the Phils can do to upgrade their offense just yet.
The younger players in the system should see plenty of opportunities in 2017, so this winter the main goal should be improving the club, while keeping spots on the 25-man roster readily available for players that could become a part of the future of the Phillies success.
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