Major League Baseball

Padres make another big move, add game's best closer in Kimbrel

Published Apr. 5, 2015 11:11 p.m. ET

Ken Rosenthal

Once you eliminate the extraneous parts, here’s the essence of Sunday's trade — the Padres bought Craig Kimbrel from the Braves for $53.35 million, two prospects and the 41st pick of the June draft.

That is a steep price, but it’s consistent with general manager A.J. Preller’s other major deals over the past four months — short-term gain, potential long-term pain.

I like the trade for the Pads because Kimbrel is by far the best of the seven players in it, and because the team’s postseason chances just got that much better. The move, though, is debatable — highly debatable in many respects.

The Padres’ added $53.35 million obligation is the difference between the amount they owe Kimbrel and Melvin Upton and the amount they off-loaded by moving Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin to the Braves.

One of the youngsters in the deal, right-hander Matt Wisler, was the Padres’ No. 1 prospect according to Baseball America, though he might prove no more than a mid- to back-of-the-rotation starter.

The second prospect, outfielder Jordan Paroubeck, is a raw, hit-or-miss type who spent last season in rookie ball after the Padres’ previous regime took him in the second round of the 2013 draft. And the 41st pick, well, it had value to the Pads, considering that Preller has now traded six of the team’s top 10 prospects according to BA.

If the deal was Kimbrel for those players alone, it would be an absolute steal. The “contributions” of Upton, Maybin and Quentin likely will be a wash; the Braves, in fact, are likely to designate Quentin for assignment. But the Braves’ insistence that the Padres also take Upton’s remaining $46.35 million dramatically altered the finances of the deal, to the point where many teams would have balked.

The question, though, is not as simple as, "How much do you value a closer?" Yes, relievers are volatile, and all pitchers are injury risks. But Kimbrel, entering his age 27 season, is the best closer in the game, and playing his home games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park should only enhance his performance.

If Kimbrel were a free agent, he likely would command a guarantee of more than $53.35 million — David Robertson, remember, just got $46 million from the White Sox. Heck, Kimbrel may have even commanded almost $18 million per season, which essentially is what the Padres will pay him over three years.

The trade, meanwhile, makes the Padres’ bullpen so deep that two quality relievers, Kevin Quackenbush and Brandon Maurer will start the season in the minors. Joaquin Benoit and Shawn Kelley are the new setup men, and who knows? Maybe Preller eventually will trade one of them for another part.

Again - everything looks good short term. The trade increases the Padres’ payroll to about $109 million, a figure that is still manageable and ranks a mere 18th in the majors. Long term, however, the numbers get far more daunting. In 2017, the Padres will pay four players — Kimbrel, Upton, Matt Kemp and James Shields — a total of $68.45 million.

Yowzah.

Ever since the Pads began their buildup, people around the game have asked, “Where are they getting all this money?” Obviously they have it, and ownership deserves credit for supporting Preller’s whimsies. Still, it’s fair to ask when the party will end.

If the Padres win, they’ll generate enough revenue for Preller to figure out the rest later. If they do not, Preller might need to shift violently into reverse, and their fans might recoil at such a teardown.

The Braves, by trading Kimbrel, continued their own deconstruction, one that seemed unimaginable a year ago when they were busy signing Kimbrel and several of their other young stars long term.

The idea of trading Kimbrel made perfect sense — a closer is a luxury item for a non-contender, and once the Braves dumped Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis, they had no chance in ’15.

But could the Braves have gotten more for Kimbrel in July or even next offseason, when he still would have been under three years of control, including his club option? The answer surely is yes, as long as they did not connect him to Melvin Upton, who currently is out with a foot injury.

Thing is, the Braves were desperate to move Upton — they tried to attach him to Gattis and others earlier in the offseason, and ultimately they were willing to sacrifice Kimbrel to get it done.

John Hart, Atlanta's president of baseball operations, spent the entire winter collecting pitching prospects, and Wisler becomes the latest addition to that group. Equally encouraging, the competitive-balance pick that the Braves acquired gives them four of the top 54 picks in the June draft.

On the other hand ...

The Braves’ signing of free-agent Nick Markakis to a four-year, $44 million free-agent contract looks preposterous. The 2015 team beyond first baseman Freddie Freeman, shortstop Andrelton Simmons and some of the young starters looks awful. And if Hart and Co. miss on too many of these prospects, the Braves still could be awful when they enter their new ballpark in 2017.

As with most trades, it will be years before this one can be properly judged. The Padres are trying to win, the Braves are not. Understanding that context is critical. And if Kimbrel helps lead the Pads to their first postseason appearance since 2006, club officials probably won’t care how much it cost.