Houston Astros: Last-Minute Trade for Starter an Option?
The Houston Astros’ starting pitching has hurt their playoff push recently, and ESPN’s Buster Olney argues that a September trade could help them survive the next three weeks. But would it be a good idea?
The Houston Astros are still within striking distance of a postseason berth, currently 3.5 games behind the second AL Wild Card spot. Their starting rotation has been a real problem, however, one the club will need to solve quickly if it wants to keep playing in October. Two of their key starters, Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, are sidelined with injuries at the moment, and the rest of the staff has struggled in their absence.
Astros starting pitchers have posted a 4.72 ERA in the second half, which is good for just 23rd in the league. Since the start of September, they rank dead last with an ugly 8.64 ERA. It’s made a difference in the team’s recent results as well, as they have dropped six of their last ten games. Amid uncertainty as to when Keuchel and McCullers will be able to return, Houston really needs to stabilize its starting pitching if it wants to finish the year strong and sneak into the playoffs.
ESPN’s Buster Olney chimed in today with an unconventional idea in his column. He suggested that the Astros could look to make a trade this month for a starter, knowing that whoever they acquired would not be eligible for the postseason if they make it there. The reasoning, of course, is that the club’s sole focus right now should be reaching the playoffs in the first place. If they do so, then they can worry about their prospects of advancing.
Olney mentions two potential candidates for such a last-minute trade: Andrew Cashner and Ivan Nova. Both are impending free agents on teams that are rapidly fading in the postseason chase. Cashner has largely struggled since joining the Miami Marlins, managing a 4.78 ERA since July 31. He’s allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four outings, however, and (as Olney notes) he would be much happier with Houston’s beard policy.
Nova has been great for the Pittsburgh Pirates, spinning off a 2.53 ERA in seven starts since being dealt to the club. In his most recent four outings, he has surrendered only five runs in 30 innings (1.50 ERA) while issuing just two walks. He’s boosted his value in a big way for the upcoming free agency period, which likely means the Bucs would want a bit more in a trade as well. Based on recent performance, Nova would certainly be a tougher get than Cashner.
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But could a team really ask for a legitimate asset in exchange for only three weeks’ service of a player? It’s hard to say since it so rarely happens. But the Astros seeking out such a trade would be a definite sign of desperation, one other teams would surely try to exploit. Houston could probably swing a deal for a “super rental” if they really wanted to, but would it truly be a good idea?
With all due respect to Mr. Olney, it’s hard to see a situation like this working out well for the Astros. There are no fewer than seven teams battling for the AL’s two Wild Card spots right now, meaning that even if they play better down the stretch, there’s no guarantee they will be sitting in a chair when the music stops. After three games against the first-place Rangers this week, the Astros’ schedule is somewhat of a mixed bag. They will have 10 games against the lowly A’s and Angels, and six versus the Mariners, one of their main Wild Card rivals.
The plan might also make more sense if Dallas Keuchel was A) healthy and B) pitching like he was a year ago when he won the Cy Young. If the Astros reached the Wild Card game, they would feel confident relying on their ace in a one-game playoff. It worked last season against the Yankees, after all. But Keuchel hasn’t been anywhere near as dominant as he was in 2015, posting a 4.55 ERA over 26 starts.
The Wild Card play-in game is still very much a coin flip, and it’s hard to justify giving up a prospect (even a lesser one) on such a gambit. The Astros have an impressive young core, so their window is by no means closing. While it would be disappointing to miss the postseason after last year’s run to the ALDS, Houston shouldn’t make a brash move either.
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