Major League Baseball

Don't overlook these sleeper teams

Published Feb. 17, 2011 12:00 a.m. ET

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For all the Cincinnati Reds accomplished last season, they apparently didn’t make a strong impression on the general public.

Having put together their first winning record in a decade, and claiming a division title for the first time in 15 years, the Reds showed up for spring training this week with no indication that they have earned the respect of the sporting public.

This is a team that might have finished five games ahead of St. Louis and 14 games ahead of third-place Milwaukee in the NL Central last year, but the oddsmakers set the Reds no better than a third-place team for 2011.

But then it’s not like predictions have much impact on what happens in the coming months.

Oddsmakers and the media come up with projected champions.

The 162-regular season grind, however, doesn’t really pay attention.

Who would have ever thought San Francisco and Texas would square off for the world championship a year ago? Obviously few thought the Reds could win the NL Central a year ago because there are still doubters a year later.

So who are the Reds and Rangers of 2011?

Which teams that are considered long shots by oddsmakers — teams at least 25-to-1 to win the World Series — are most likely to surprise in each division?

AL EAST

Boston (4-to-1) and the New York Yankees (7-to-1) have paid for top billing, but they can’t shake those pesky Rays from Tampa Bay (25-to-1), where the emphasis of a quality farm system has paid off in creating a low-budget contender.

Their free-agent defections were so severe that the Rays picked up enough compensation picks to give them nine of the first 91 selections in the June draft. But they retained a quality nucleus that starts with a quality rotation, led by David Price, and an offense built around Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton.

The Rays, however, will need some big-time surprises — they are, after all, counting on the likes of Manny Ramirez at DH and Johnny Damon in left field — if they are going to overtake the Red Sox.

AL CENTRAL

Actually, there’s not much of a favorite in the AL Central, where the Twins (20-to-1) are just ahead of the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers (both 25-to-1), and both, like the Twins, faced with major obstacles to overcome in a championship drive.

Want a long shot with long odds? Kansas City (100-to-1) is trying to piece a roster together until its mother lode of talent down on the farm is ready to harvest. Two years removed from shoulder surgery, Jeff Francis was a low-priced risk the Royals took, well aware that Francis was a 17-game winner for the NL pennant-winning Colorado Rockies in 2007. They also were willing to give Jeff Francouer, once the future hope of Atlanta, another chance to resurrect his career.

AL WEST

The AL West will most likely have a survivor, more than a winner. The Rangers remain the favorite (20-to-1), but their offseason was spent coming up short in retaining lefty Cliff Lee and mired by a disconnect between the organization and Michael Young, the face of the franchise and most popular player on the team. Young was the subject of a winter-long effort to unload him after his third base job was given to free agent Adrian Beltre.

Oakland (40-to-1) is in position to surprise. The A’s have the type of young arms that could mature and become a dominant force in the hitting-friendly American League. Could the quartet of Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill recreate the excitement of a decade ago? And their jobs should be easier with the A’s having made offseason additions of veteran relievers Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour to set the stage for emerging closer Andrew Bailey.

NL EAST

Philadelphia (6-to-1) has rattled off four division titles in a row and Atlanta (20-to-1) retains a mystique even with the retirement of Bobby Cox. Don’t, however, short-change Florida (35-to-1).

A rotation built around Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco has as much potential as any in the game, and shortstop Hanley Ramirez is an elite player to build an offense around.

More importantly, the Marlins were able to strengthen their bullpen by picking up Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica from San Diego, which should ensure the young starters get victories as rewards for quality efforts.

NL CENTRAL

St. Louis (16-to-1) spent the offseason in futile negotiations to tie up potential free agent Albert Pujols long-term. Milwaukee (25-to-1) did make a statement by shipping off a slew of quality prospects to add starting pitchers Shaun Marcum from Toronto and Zack Greinke from Kansas City.

And then there are the Reds (30-to-1), who are considered just as big a long shot at the perennially disappointing Chicago Cubs (30-to-1). The Reds seem like a team that could look at last year as the first step toward returning to the elite, not a fluke.

They were able to win 91 games despite a rotation with only two pitchers who reached double figures in wins — Bronson Arroyo (17-10) and Johnny Cueto (12-7). They also provided pennant race exposure for young arms — Cueto, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, Travis Wood and Aroldis Chapman — and young bats — Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs.

NL WEST

San Francisco (15-1) earned the respect of the role of the favorite after claiming the franchise’s first world championship since 1955, and doing it with a rotation that was dominating and, thanks to the emergence Madison Bumgarner and maturation of Jonathan Sanchez, threatens to be even better.

Colorado (25-1), however, is lurking. The Rockies have enough confidence in their young players that they didn’t overreact to the disappointment of 2010 and tear up the roster.

If new hitting coach Carney Lansford can help Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta and Seth Smith take the next step in their big-league maturity as hitters, the Rockies could explode thanks to a rotation that counts on the continued emergence of Jhoulys Chacin and a healthy return from Aaron Cook.

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