This is the latest of our 2017 team previews. Each week during spring training, we’ll preview a division with a team each day (Monday-Friday). This week: The NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | San Diego Padres. Up next: Arizona Diamondbacks
LAST SEASON
75-87 (third place in NL West)
WHAT’S NEW
Key additions: 1B/OF Ian Desmond (free agent from Rangers), RP Greg Holland (free agent from Royals), RP Mike Dunn (free agent from Marlins), OF Chris Denorfia (free agent from Padres), IF/OF Alexi Amorist (free agent from Padres)
Key subtractions: SP Jorge De La Rosa (free agent to Diamondbacks), IF Daniel Descalso (free agent to Diamondbacks), C Nick Hundley (free agent to Giants), RP Boone Logan (free agent to Indians), OF Ryan Raburn (free agent to Reds)
3 STRIKES
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
1. Makings of a sleeper. In the major leagues in 2017, there aren’t many teams that are expected to make a leap, but the Rockies might be the one team that breaks through. They’ve always had the hitting, but for the first time in a long time, Colorado enters the season with a viable argument that it has the pitching to compete for a playoff spot. It won’t be easy — it will require a near 15-game turnaround – but it is possible with this roster.
2. Rocky Mountain Blues. So why do the Rockies think they have the pitching to get the job done this year? Because they almost had the guns necessary last year. Jon Gray has all the makings of an ace, and one that doesn’t seem to care about pitching at altitude, either. Tyler Chatwood posted a 3.87 ERA in 158 innings last season, and Tyler Anderson was surprisingly strong in 19 starts, forcing evaluators to recalibrate their projections of what he can be at the major-league level. And there are at least four talented, major league-ready young pitchers who could round out the rotation. Add in a surprisingly good bullpen, and you have a Rockies team that could allow fewer than five runs per game. That still might sound like a lot, but when you have an offense like the Rox, five is more than enough to cover.
3. The best player that’s not a household name. Nolan Arenado starts the season on the MVP shortlist, but because the Rockies rarely compete into the late summer months, he is not a household name in the way that Harper, Trout and Kershaw are. That’s a shame because he’s absolutely in their class. Arenado is a legendarily great glove at third base — his highlight reel is one of the great joys in baseball — and his bat isn’t necessarily Coors-aided. He doesn’t need to up his game to earn MVP consideration, but if the Rockies break through, he’s going to get a lot of deserved love.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO
The young rotation reaches another level in 2017 and the Rockies allow fewer than 4.8 runs per game, while the offense, prolific as it is, leads the National League in runs scored. The Rockies win 88 games and play in the Wild Card Game.
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WORST-CASE SCENARIO
The starting pitching plateaus at altitude and no matter how many runs the offense scores, the Rockies can’t get over the hump — reaching .500 a few times but ultimately falling significantly short of the postseason, again.
SURPRISING STAT
The Rockies might have played in the World Series, but they’ve never won the National League West. This is their 25th season!
BEST BETS
Projected win total (via Atlantis Casino Resort): 79.5
World Series odds (via Vegas Insider): 60/1
TOP FIVE FANTASY PLAYERS
1. Nolan Arenado, 3B: Despite hitting 83 homers over the past two seasons, Arenado continues to fight for national recognition. Fantasy owners know who he is and he remains a first-round pick based on average draft position.
2. Carlos Gonzalez, OF: He sacrificed power for contact in 2016 as his homers dipped from 40 to 25 year over year, while his average jumped from .271 to .298 in 2016. CarGo still managed to match his 2015 run total (87) and drive in 100 last season.
3. Charlie Blackmon, OF: Like a fine wine, Blackmon is improving with age. He posted career-best fantasy stats last season at 30 years old. He’s a near lock for 20 homers and stolen bases in 2017.
4. Ian Desmond, OF: Despite Desmond's hand fracture, Rockies manager Bud Black expects him back by end of April. Desmond never seems to get cheated during an at-bat, so the thought of his power playing inside Coors Field leaves fantasy pundits salivating. He will earn first base eligibility this season, too.
5. Jon Gray, SP: He still needs to cut down on his walks, but thanks to a 9.9 K/9 rate, Gray is one of the first fantasy relevant Rockies’ starting pitchers in some time.
PREDICTION
The Rockies flirt with the postseason well into August before the bats go silent for a stretch and the starting pitching isn’t there to help them.
