College Football

Michigan vs. Purdue, USC vs. Utah, more we're watching in Championship Week

Updated Nov. 30, 2022 7:01 p.m. ET

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

RJ Young

FOX Sports College Football Analyst

There is a lot on the line as the college football world heads into Championship Week.

The Big Ten final will feature a Michigan team seeking its second straight conference crown. The Big 12 features an unbeaten TCU squad trying to become the first team not named Oklahoma to make the College Football Playoff out of the conference. And the Pac-12 final offers Lincoln Riley a chance to complete a remarkable turnaround in his first season with the Trojans.

And that's just the start.

Here's what we're looking forward to watching most in championship weekend.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: No. 11 Utah vs. No. 4 USC (8 p.m. ET; FOX and the FOX Sports app)

Young: After a wild Pac-12 season, we're going to end up with the two teams I thought would play for the league title when the season kicked off.

This is not only Utah’s moment to remind the country that the Utes are the defending conference champions, but that the Pac-12 is still going to be a competitive league when the Trojans (and Bruins) make like many Californians do and go to the Big Ten.

For the Trojans, they're playing for not just the program’s first league title since 2017, but the conference’s first CFP invitation since 2016. Avenging their only loss this season to the Utes would punctuate what has been an outstanding Year 1 for USC coach Lincoln Riley, who is looking to secure his fourth appearance in the CFP in six years.

In each year that Riley’s teams have made the CFP, his quarterback has been a Heisman finalist. He's got another Heisman finalist in Trojan quarterback Caleb Williams.

Williams is responsible for a program-record 44 touchdowns, has passed for 3,172 yards with just three interceptions and is a dynamo on the field. With another outstanding outing against Utah, he could have the Heisman won by Saturday morning.

Cohen: There aren’t many seasons when a team on the CFP bubble gets an opportunity to cancel out its only loss and impress upon the selection committee why a midseason drawback shouldn’t be the deciding factor. The Trojans fell to Utah, 43-42, in an emotionally charged game at Rice-Eccles Stadium on Oct. 15 that remains the lone slip-up on an otherwise flawless résumé. It’s also worth noting the Utes are undefeated at home this season with every other victory by multiple scores. There’s no shame in losing to a great team in a difficult road environment.

In some respects, USC’s loss to Utah was the starting point for Williams’ remarkable run toward the Heisman Trophy — an award that seems like his to lose entering the Pac-12 title game. He threw for just 188 yards and two scores against Washington State a week prior to facing the Utes and then exploded for 381 yards and five touchdowns in a losing effort. From that game forward, Williams has thrown 20 touchdowns to just two interceptions while averaging 359.2 passing yards per game. He also chipped in seven rushing touchdowns during that stretch to punctuate an otherworldly end to the regular season.

No. 6 USC takes down No. 15 Notre Dame

RJ Young discusses whether Caleb Williams is the leader in the Heisman chase after the Trojans beat the Irish.

SATURDAY

Big 12: No. 10 Kansas State vs. No. 3 TCU (Noon ET)

Young: Like USC, the Horned Frogs are playing for their CFP lives.

TCU has seen just how the CFP gets down. The Frogs know they're not getting in with a loss because the CFP didn’t invite them the last time they showed up to the pageant contest with a loss, watching the CFP pick Ohio State in 2014.

Like Utah, the Wildcats are looking to play spoiler and ruin TCU’s chance to become the Big 12’s first CFP entrant since 2019 — and first not named Oklahoma.

No matter the outcome of this game, the Big 12 has demonstrated it doesn't need OU or Texas — who hasn't won a league title since 2009 — to be competitive among the Power 5.

Raise your hand if you live outside of Fort Worth, Texas, and Manhattan, Kansas, and believed one of these teams would play for the Big 12 title at the start of the season?

I didn't. I also didn't think TCU quarterback Max Duggan or K-State quarterback Will Howard would not only end the season as the starter but would outplay most of the league in November.

Cohen: A fascinating aspect of Kansas State’s feel-good regular season was just how good the Wildcats looked at moments when head coach Chris Klieman’s group was kicking. K-State responded from a crushing 38-28 loss at TCU by barnstorming Oklahoma State the following week in a 48-0 rout that remains one of the most eye-opening results of this year’s college football season. Then the Wildcats recovered from a one-possession loss to Texas by demolishing Baylor, 31-3, just seven days later. Kansas State has flashed a top gear that can match or exceed most teams. Can the Wildcats spoil TCU’s party?

And there is so much at stake for the Horned Frogs. At 12-0, a win over Kansas State would match the 2010 team for the most victories in school history while giving TCU its first Big 12 title since 2004 under former head coach Gary Patterson. Not to mention knocking off the Wildcats would solidify the Horned Frogs’ entrance into the CFP and eliminate the potential for any funny business from the committee when examining a one-loss team from a conference it doesn’t traditionally value. Win and in, clean and simple.

SEC: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 14 LSU (4 p.m. ET)

Cohen: Two results from last week’s slate of games changed the tenor of this year’s SEC title game. The first took place in Columbus, Ohio, where No. 3 Michigan bulldozed No. 2 Ohio State to lay claim to the single-best win of the college football season, a distinction that previously belonged to Georgia for its 27-13 home win over Tennessee. The second took place in College Station, Texas, where an LSU team with an outside shot of reaching the CFP stubbed its toe in a shocking 38-23 loss to wobbly Texas A&M.

Those games are relevant because of how much they dinged Georgia’s résumé as a potential No. 1 overall seed in the CFP. Most people figured the SEC title game would offer Georgia a chance to pad its résumé by beating a team slotted fifth or sixth in the penultimate rankings, but that’s no longer the case. Just like the win over Tennessee has lost some of its luster through an additional slip-up from the Volunteers and Michigan’s resounding win at Ohio State. Even if Georgia beats LSU this weekend, there’s an argument to be made for shifting Michigan to No. 1 depending on how badly head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team clobbers Purdue at Lucas Oil Stadium. In other words, the Bulldogs need to win and win big.

Young: The Bulldogs are looking to secure their first back-to-back SEC titles since 1981 and 1982. In doing so, they'd remain the consensus No. 1-ranked team in the country and secure a de facto home-field advantage as the 1-seed playing in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta — just 72 miles east of Athens, Georgia.

The Bulldogs have shown themselves capable of playing their best football against ranked opponents, but they've shown signs of starting slowly in their last two games. They led Kentucky 9-0 at half in their game and led 5-7 Georgia Tech 10-7 at half in their final regular-season game.

Coming off a terrible loss to 5-7 Texas A&M, though, it's an open question whether LSU can take advantage of a slow start from UGA. If the Tigers can get the win, though, they'd certainly make the CFP committee think about whether or not UGA needs to remain No. 1, as many believe the Bulldogs will get into the CFP with a loss.

AAC: No. 22 UCF vs. No. 18 Tulane (4 p.m. ET)

Young: The Green Wave can lock up a Cotton Bowl bid with a win and cap off one of the sport's best stories this season. After going 2-10 in 2021, Tulane is 10-2 and the program’s best season since 1998, when the Green Wave finished 12-0.

For UCF, the opportunity to throw down a marker before heading to the Big 12 would be a boon for Gus Malzahn and the Knights, who have become a Group of 5 force since 2017 when the program finished undefeated with a win against Malzahn’s Auburn Tigers in the Peach Bowl.

Cohen: This year’s American Athletic Conference title game is a rematch of an exciting tilt won by Central Florida on the road in New Orleans earlier this year. The Knights built a double-digit lead within five minutes of the opening kickoff on Nov. 12 and led by 17 points on more than one occasion in what ended as a wire-to-wire, 38-31 victory.

The biggest question is whether Tulane’s run defense has improved since getting torn apart for 336 yards and four touchdowns in that game. UCF’s dual-threat quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, a transfer from Ole Miss, finished with more rushing yards (176) than passing yards (132) to dominate the ball in a game when the Knights finished plus-11 minutes in time of possession. To this day, no team has scored more points on the Green Wave than UCF did earlier this month. Will there be revenge or just more of the same?

Big Ten: Purdue vs. No. 2 Michigan (8 p.m. ET; FOX and the FOX Sports app)

Young: The Wolverines are looking to secure their first back-to-back Big Ten Championships since 2003 and 2004 and back-to-back CFP invitations for the first time in their history.

In Heisman candidate Blake Corum’s absence, sophomore running back Donovan Edwards and sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy enjoyed outstanding games against venerable Ohio State. The Wolverines will need each of them to get past a Purdue offense led by quarterback Aidan O’Connell and wideout Charlie Jones.

A loss for the Wolverines might not open the door for another team to take their place in the CFP, but it certainly makes the committee consider just whether Michigan should remain the No. 2 team in the country.

[Joel Klatt: Michigan 'might be the best team in the country,' true contenders]

Cohen: The feeling entering this year’s Big Ten title game is eerily similar to last season, when the heavily favored Wolverines rolled into Indianapolis and pummeled No. 23 Iowa, 42-3, in a game that epitomized the discrepancy between the league’s East and West divisions. The showdown with Ohio State a week prior was what everyone wanted to see, and the ensuing trip to Lucas Oil Stadium felt like little more than a formality for Michigan en route to its CFP debut.

Once again, the Big Ten East is the vastly superior division, with three programs likely to be ranked in the top 10 of the final CFP rankings next week — Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State — whose only losses were at the hands of the aforementioned teams. Head coach Jim Harbaugh will bring his team to the league-title game favored by 16½ points over the Boilermakers a year after being favored by 12 against the Hawkeyes. This could — and should — be another blowout that might vault the Wolverines to No. 1 depending on what happens with Georgia.

Does the Big Ten go through Ann Arbor?

RJ Young, Mike Weber Jr. and Chris Howard debate whether Michigan firmly rules the Big Ten.

ACC: No. 9 Clemson vs. No. 23 North Carolina (8 p.m. ET)

Cohen: Clemson’s stunning home loss to South Carolina last week extinguished the Tigers’ chances of reaching the CFP for the seventh time in the last eight years. And it’s hard to argue that head coach Dabo Swinney’s team was among the best in the country this season. Clemson ranks 84th in passing offense, 39th in rushing offense and 53rd in total offense. Those numbers aren’t indicative of a top-four team in the country worthy of reaching the national playoff. Back-to-back misfires for the Tigers in 2021 and 2022.

Across the field, North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye is one of the brightest young prospects in the sport and looks the part of an eventual first-round pick. The redshirt freshman has seven 300-yard games and one 400-yard game this season to go along with a remarkable 35:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But Maye is coming off his two worst games of the season in consecutive losses to Georgia Tech (202 yards, no TDs, one INT) and North Carolina State (233 yards, two total TDs, one INT) that dulled the Tar Heels’ sheen after they started the year 9-1.

Young: After winning the ACC title for six consecutive years, Clemson could fail to win it in the last two. Against a quarterback under fire in DJ Uiagalelei, UNC might have enough in perhaps the league’s best player this season — Maye — to win the program’s first league championship since 1980.

The winner of this game, for just the second time since 2015, will not play in the CFP without a handful of upsets and a committee that desperately wants to smile on the ACC (read: Clemson) again.

Read more:

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube.

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