Five Big 12 Conference questions: Are Baylor and TCU good enough to make the playoff?
Over the next few days, we take a closer look at some of the questions around the power conferences in college football. Today: The Big 12.
1. What's to become of the Big 12 and the college playoff?
What's to come of the Big 12
Earlier this summer, Oklahoma president David Boren suggested the league needed to expand.
It's not happening this year, and on top of that, there's no title game in the future, either. The two issues combine to put the Big 12 in a spot where it doesn't play on equal footing as the other power conferences.
The Big 12 needs a team to make the college football playoff. If Baylor or TCU slips up early on, it could be a disastrous run for the Big 12 unless another team (maybe Oklahoma) can make an amazing ascension.
The fact the Big 12 doesn't have a title game means it needs a team to be undefeated, or at least have a pair of one-loss teams deep into the season who are relevant and ranked highly.
There won't be a single Big 12 team playing when the Big 10, Pac-12, ACC and SEC will be holding their title games. Without an undefeated team, the Big 12 could suffer the same way it did last year when one-loss teams BYU and TCU were passed during championship week.
Baylor's schedule is weak. TCU needs to figure out how not to lose at Minnesota and there better not be any upsets along the way for Oklahoma or any other team who might wind up ranked.
Too many losses means the league will be out of the playoff once again.
2. Is Baylor QB Seth Russell a legitimate Heisman candidate?
Baylor quarterback Seth Russell is currently a 33-1 bet to win the Heisman Trophy, and that says a lot about how successful Art Briles has been with quarterbacks in the past. Bryce Petty took over for Robert Griffin III without a hitch a few years ago, and given Russell’s small but effective sample size (9.46 yards per attempt last season, eight touchdowns to just one interception) combined with Briles’ track record with signal callers, and it’s easy to see how the junior could have a massive season.
If he does, Baylor might be the best team in the country not named Ohio State. The Bears return 18 starters, including big names (and people) such as Shawn Oakman, Andrew Billings, KD Cannon, Corey Coleman and Shock Linwood. The uncertainty at quarterback seems to be all that’s holding Baylor behind conference rival TCU in the rankings. But several things indicate Russell could have a monster first year as a starter, and if he does, the rest of the Big 12 is in for a long season.
3. Is this the year Texas running back Johnathan Gray lives up to his 5-star billing?
Texas running back Johnathan Gray was the best running back in the class of 2012 according to 247 sports. He was supposed to carry the Longhorn rushing torch that once belonged to the likes of Ricky Williams, Cedric Benson and Jamaal Charles.
Fast-forward to 2015, and it hasn’t quite worked out that way for Gray. He’s never topped 800 rushing yards in a season, and his 4.3 yards per carry mark last season was the worst of his career.
In Gray’s final two contests against TCU and Arkansas last season, he rushed 17 times and gained nine yards. Nine. The offensive line had a lot to do with that, but if Texas is going to be remotely successful on offense this year, Gray needs to be in the five yards per carry ballpark.
The ‘Horns have the defense to be successful. But their quarterback situation is in flux, with Charlie Strong saying both Tyrone Swoopes and Jerrod Heard will see time against Note Dame, and they’ll need to rely on the run game. If Gray can come close to living up to his recruiting billing, Texas could surprise some people this season.
4. Can the Sooners return to the top of the Big 12?
Oklahoma has turned over its coaching staff, doesn't have a starting quarterback named and - most importantly – went 8-5 last season.
It seems the Sooners are farther from a national contender as they have been since when Bob Stoops took over before the 1999 season.
In addition to so many unknowns, Oklahoma is dealing with a number of off-field issues that have been the main talking points surrounding the program since OU wrapped up the 2014 season with a 40-6 loss in the Russell Athletic Bowl to Clemson.
This is the situation Stoops faces as OU starts the season ranked No. 19. The potential is certainly there. Oklahoma returns top receiver Sterling Shepard and top running back Samaje Perine. There's a new offensive coordinator in Lincoln Riley, who promises an up-tempo, quarterback friendly offense and there's Baker Mayfield, a freshman phenom quarterback at Texas Tech before transferring to Oklahoma. Mayfield and Trevor Knight, who once upon a time beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, will battle for the quarterback job.
The schedule doesn't exactly set up well for OU either. The Sooners have a road game at Tennessee along with Big 12 games at Baylor, Kansas State and OSU. But a win at Tennessee will get the Sooners back in the conversation. Only TCU and Baylor are among the ranked Big 12 teams, so an early season, non-conference win at an SEC team will get folks talking
Stoops has now overhauled his coaching staff twice in the past four seasons. But he's been through tough times before, including taking over a team back in 1999 and winning the national title a season later.
How close are the Sooners now from doing the same thing?
5. How much pressure is there on TCU?
Well, let's start with the answer and go from there.
There's a lot.
TCU is coming off a 12-1 season and a romp of a bowl win over Ole Miss. There are 17 starters coming back and the Horned Frogs are the talk of the town from Fort Worth to Florida.
Trevone Boykin has made a remarkable turnaround from receiver to under-preforming quarterback to the Hesiman Trophy favorite going into this September.
There are a lot of people expecting a lot of things from TCU and the Horned Frogs have decided to embrace it. You can check that out here.
The schedule agrees with them, too. Sure, they have a road game at Minnesota and a road game at Oklahoma, but Baylor comes to town the last week of the regular season and after losing 61-58 last season to the Bears, you have to figure TCU will have a little something extra.
Baylor and TCU have taken over as the conference's best bet. But unlike Oklahoma and Texas, TCU doesn't have the brand name. It doesn't have the history and doesn't have the record of consistent success.
A bad season by TCU, or at least a season, below what's expected, would be a huge, "I told you so," about the program and the conference.
It's up to TCU to prove the Big 12 is worthy. It's up to TCU to prove it's legit, too.
Photo Credit: Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports
