College Football Playoff Predictions: Are Teams Coming Off a Bye Doomed?

After an exciting opening round of on-campus games, we’re onto the quarterfinals of the 2025 College Football Playoff.

No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech are back in action following a first-round bye. Will a longer layoff than their opponents matter? It did last year, as all four teams that had a bye lost their next matchup.

Regardless, we’ve got some intriguing games on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.

[2025 CFP Odds: Lines, Spreads for Each Quarterfinal Game]

That said, here are my latest CFP quarterfinals predictions:

Quarterfinal Round

Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Miami (Fla.) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET) 

Winner: Ohio State

(Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)

While Miami's defense may be good enough to wreak havoc and cause problems for some of Ohio State's biggest stars in quarterback Julian Sayin, wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and running back Bo Jackson, its offense is going to struggle to score points against the Buckeye’s top-rated defense. That's going to be a big problem for Miami. 

The Hurricanes mustered only one touchdown against No. 7 Texas A&M in the first round, and it came late in the fourth quarter once they finally decided to lean on star running back Mark Fletcher Jr. and focus on the ground game. 

Miami quarterback Carson Beck has waited his entire college career for a moment like this, but unfortunately, Ohio State’s defense is too physical and too talented. Even though the Buckeyes lost to then-No. 2 Indiana in the Big Ten championship game — their last game on the field — they only gave up 13 points to one of the nation’s best offenses.

Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (Thursday, noon ET)

Winner: Texas Tech

(Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Dan Lanning’s Ducks are going to come out fiery after the head coach called his team out for not playing up to his standards, despite them beating No. 12 James Madison by double digits in the first round, 51-34. Oregon has an advantage when it comes to its quarterback, Dante Moore, and the offensive line, but the challenge will be how that group handles Texas Tech’s top-five defense. Led by standout linebacker and Vince Lombardi Award winner Jacob Rodriguez, the Red Raiders have the best run defense in the country and are lethal when it comes to forcing turnovers.

Neither team has lost since October and some are saying that this is the most evenly matched game of the quarterfinals. Defense wins championships, so I'm giving an edge to the Red Raiders and defensive coordinator Shiel Wood’s crew. They’ll be able to get enough pressure and cause enough problems for a Texas Tech win.

Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (Thursday, 4 p.m. ET)

Winner: Indiana

(Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

In its opening-round comeback win over No. 8 Oklahoma, Alabama proved that it can fight back from a double-digit deficit and win. That kind of strength and determination may work against the Sooners, but it will be much harder for the Crimson Tide to win if they fall into a hole against the Hoosiers.

Indiana is No. 1 in the country and doesn't have many weaknesses. Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza has lit up defenses with his passing game, and the Hoosiers' running game isn’t too shabby either. While Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is coming off one of his better performances, Indiana is tied with Texas Tech for the national lead in turnover margin. So, Simpson & Co. must play mistake-free football in order to have a chance.

Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET)

Winner: Georgia

(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

This is a rematch from October when then-No. 2 Georgia defeated then-No. 6 Ole Miss by single digits at home, 43-35. That was the Rebels' lone loss of the regular season. This will be a huge test for new head coach Pete Golding. The first round was massive, of course, because it was the first game Ole Miss played without former head coach Lane Kiffin, who left the team just before the start of the CFP for the same job at SEC rival LSU. The Rebels' opponent was No. 11 Tulane, and they cruised to a lopsided 30-plus-point win at home, 41-10, even with dual-threat quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and star running back Kewan Lacy getting banged up.

Unfortunately for Golding though, Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has too many tricks up his sleeve. The Bulldogs are playing championship-level football right now and arguably haven’t even played their best game yet. If they continue to run the ball well with Nate Frazier and play fast, physical defense, it’s going to be difficult for anyone to beat them.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

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