College Football Playoff Predictions: Indiana's X-Factor Is Curt Cignetti

Given where things stand now, a few days before the College Football Playoff national championship game between No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami, it’s worth looking back at Week 8 of the AP Poll, which was released on Oct. 12. 

In that particular version of the rankings, Miami checked in at No. 2 in the nation following a fifth straight victory to begin the season. The Hurricanes had assembled what was, to that point, arguably the strongest résumé in the country by beating then-No. 6 Notre Dame, Bethune Cookman, then-No. 18 South Florida, Florida and then-No. 18 Florida State. A good enough run to earn head coach Mario Cristobal and his team 13 first-place votes. 

One spot below Miami, at No. 3 overall, was Indiana. By then, the Hoosiers had strung together three easy non-conference victories before annihilating then-No. 9 Illinois (63-10), surviving on the road at Iowa (20-15) and knocking off then-No. 3 Oregon (30-20) at Autzen Stadium. For its efforts, Indiana received three first-place votes. 

Bested only by top-ranked Ohio State, which claimed 50 first-place votes, that was the moment when the college football world came closest to predicting what will unfold at Hard Rock Stadium on Monday night. For as remarkable as this year’s national championship game might seem on paper, it didn’t seem all that farfetched for a brief period of time three months ago. These are, and always have been, really good teams. 

So who wins? 

Here's my national championship prediction: 

CFP National Championship Game: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 10 Miami (Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Winner: Indiana

Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti leads the team out of the tunnel before the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. (Photo by CFP/Getty Images)

Let’s assume, for argument’s sake, that the overall talent levels for Miami and Indiana are equal. That even with wildly contrasting roster compositions — the Hurricanes have 45 former four- and five-star prospects; the Hoosiers only have seven — the lineups taking the field on Monday night can be thought of as mirror images of each other when it comes to skill, health and overall football intelligence. Player for player, everything is equal.

Instead, amid this particular exercise, the national championship game comes down to nothing more than coaching. A significant edge for the Hoosiers. 

Penalties and special teams competency are two tried-and-true indicators of how well-coached any given football program really is. Teams with strong metrics in those two categories are usually disciplined, precise and employ a heightened attention to detail in areas of the game that are quite easy to overlook. More things that favor Indiana. 

[CFP: The Ultimate Indiana-Miami CFP National Championship Lineup]

The Hoosiers average the second-fewest penalty yards per game of any team in the country at 26.9, trailing only Army in that particular category. They also rank fifth nationally in FEI Special Teams Ratings, behind only Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska and Ole Miss. That Indiana blocked a punt in the latter stages of its blowout win over No. 5 Oregon offered further proof of head coach Curt Cignetti’s commitment to the little things, regardless of circumstance or score.

Miami hasn’t matched that level of competency this season, struggling in those areas relative to elite competition. The Hurricanes enter the national title game ranked 85th in penalty yards per game (57.1) and 46th in FEI Special Teams Ratings. Put simply, the Hoosiers are a better-coached team.

And now, let’s revisit the overarching thought experiment from the beginning of this breakdown, the one that assumed talent was even across the board. In reality, the Hoosiers might have advantages at quarterback, wide receiver, interior defensive line, linebacker, perimeter cornerback and safety. 

So when push comes to shove, when the ball is finally kicked on Monday night, neither the playing field nor the coaching will be level. And that’s why Indiana has an excellent chance to complete its dream season.

Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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